Will parents move to areas closer to Outstanding/Good schools rather than pay VAT

[LadyConfused2024]

Sorry for the long message. This really? Do you think many parents will sell up/rent near a better school and take their kids out of private school rather than pay the VAT fee increase?

These are purely selfish reasons as I want to move and think that house prices are going to go up a lot in areas with good state schools.

Thanks in advamce.

Property near good schools already attract a premium. Nothing new there.

If your mortgage/rent went up 20%, and you had two lots to pay for the next 5 to 12 years, wouldn’t you think about moving at some point when convenient?

The moves are usually people out of cities with large budgets and the stamp duty on properties between 1 and 2 million is £40 to £70k. Which is about two years fees for two children.

We can’t find “only” £8k a year a more for the VAT for our 3.
We don’t even need to move house as luckily we have a newish excellent Free School only 200m from our house.
We won’t be pushing people out of their catchment due to house prices but we certainly will on distance as the furthest place offered is generally around 800m from the gates.
Also this whole “everyone I know is paying the VAT” - of course most people are? It’s the middle of the school year, most will suck it up until September or the next natural break point to reduce disruption.
I have a daughter in yr 6 and 21% of her year say they are moving into the State sector that I know of.
It will be really interesting when we get the figures for new school applications this Spring.

I think it’s really lovely some people might make a bit of money out of schools closing.

Some people might move from a bigger house outside catchment area to a smaller one of similar value, within a catchment area. The stamp duty is a one off payment, school fees are on-going.

There are problems with fewer parents wanting YR spaces at private schools and the spaces are not around in state schools to take DC. It’s inevitable there will be some changes in who gets in where.

Ofsted haven’t inspected some Outstanding schools for many years. At current Ofsted standards, lots are being downgraded. Moving to a catchment for outstanding is just ridiculous if you already have a good state primary available. Where I live, outstanding schools are not available in every town and many schools don’t have spaces as all for out of phase moves.

Also some schools for y7 have residency rules. You cannot just blow into catchment. Some require a considerable time before being eligible to apply. Every year people think they can pitch up and rent in y6, but they are excluded from the admissions.

Parents who have the money generally buy in the best areas. Always have and always will. A few more might be looking now.

Yes I decided not to send my dds private for secondary. We already live in catchment for a good school though

It isn’t, you know. In many countries, kids just go to the nearest school.

I don't see parents doing that around here, our social circle is at the higher income end so the VAT increase can be absorbed. House prices are very high (London) so stamp duty and other moving costs are significant. But I also think that people like the luxury of choosing where to live based on the housing stock, community and proximity to amenities, and going private allows you to not have to jump through catchment hoops (or religious attendance hoops). The top scoring state schools in London tend to be grammars in the outer zones, or religous schools with worship requirements, or are comps with a strict ethos usually in less well-connected areas. A lot of wealthier people wouldn't want to live in those areas and don't want to feign an interest in religion. And even the best state schools have larger class sizes, poorer sports and arts provision and less variety of trips compared to the good privates, so they consider the extra cost to be worthwhile.

I consider wide education options for children to be a good thing for a country, the more options the better.

There were bumper numbers of kids taking the 11+ in our area this year and I couldn't help but wonder if this was why.

MIL is moving to our area and bought the house part-exchange from a couple who only moved into it a year ago in order for their DS to be in catchment for the local grammar. He did so well on the test that he qualifies for the best grammar in the county so they've upped sticks and moved again for him to be in catchment for that school instead.

So yes, people will move, and they rent houses and flats in the right areas, too.

We also know a good few people who sent their kids to private after they failed the 11+, in fairness.

People have always done this. We moved to be guaranteed a place at our outstanding secondary 4 years ago. Private school parents thinking they’re the only ones with the means/ care enough about their kids education to do this 😂

Yes more parents will do this

I have yet to see any evidence that there are not enough state school places for the demand - only people complaining that their chosen school is full. That is not the same thing as not enough space in the state sector. If there were to be more children than places, the LAs have a perfectly adequate system for increasing it.

I wouldn’t bet the farm on an Ofsted report, but Ofsted has committed to reinspecting previously exempt Outstanding schools by this year. So every school should have an Ofsted recently-ish.

It’s always been the second option for most parents as I imagine it was for you, it’s just that now more parents will be forced into their second option,

@shockeditellyou Both Surrey and Bucks have issues. It’s anyone starting at non standard year (so not YR and Y7) that has real problems and some will be travelling some distance! There’s few spaces. A list is produced showing vacancies and there are hardly any.

No one has said it's only private school parents who will do this. It already happens, but will happen even more as people make the switch from private to state. That puts more pressure on places at the best state schools.

I’d double check the admissions criteria for your target school as a truly desirable state school is unlikely allow this.
Very standard for the catchment property to need to be your only property OR the rental property to have been very long term (3+ years)

believe it or not, the governors of fantastic schools are very used to defying attempts by catchment tourists to get a spot. Even without the private school parents 😉

other schools have already changed entrance criteria for 2025 entry (i.e dame Alice Owen’s consulting on catchment primary schools)

they’re not idiots, and are highly motivated with stopping the entitlement of flashing the cash.

People have always done this- however I think it will be very area dependent. We’re considering doing the move the other way from an ‘outstanding’ primary to private due to the high levels of disruption and no funding to support SEN.

People make all sorts of trade-offs in life, and the trade off between the size of your mortgage and school fees is a very classic one. When the cost of school fees rises unexpectedly, that creates disruption in the market and in the trade offs people make.

Private education has been increasingly demonised in England and the VAT on school fees is yet another reason why parents might think it prudent not to educate their DC privately. Quite apart from the extra cash that this will allow parents to invest in housing, there are quite good arguments for being a bit under-the-radar with the extra educational opportunities you afford your children so that they don't get flagged as over-privileged in the systems designed to sort children at various points (university entrance being the big one).

Completely agree with this and our council is (rightly) exceptionally strict on the criteria. Even if you purchase a second property, if you have kept the first one and it was your main residence in the 3 years prior to application, it is counted as main residence for application. This stops individuals buying smaller flats for admission and then moving back into the bigger house. In the same context, if renting, you must have sold your house for it to count as the main residence.
Sibling applications out of catchment fall further below in admissions criteria to stop parents from moving in for eldest and then buying a cheaper property further out whilst relying on sibling policy for subsequent children.

They are militant and prosecute for all cases of fraud, including where an individual withdraws the application.

It is absolutely right to approach in this way

Surely moving is more expensive overall? Houses in outstanding catchments can easily be another £200k more. You'd be better off at private school.

We had to provide last year's Council tax bill to DC school when the first child started. I think its to prevent people renting a property for a short while just to get in...but I've no idea what happens if you've literally just moved or renting somewhere and intending to stay long term.

At £30k plus per year now, for 2 kids, with fee inflation of at least 5% per year?

The evidence required is far more rigorous for truly highly desirable schools.

As a few people have said, ofsted outstanding or schools with excellent results, reputations for pastoral care and great teachers are very common in the state sector.

Moving to one of those is straight forward and a very decent beast to moving to a truly, famously, outstanding school, which has always been difficult as a catchment tourist and is now likely to become even more so

The poster I originally quoted was saying they would keep their owned property and rent in catchment for the space- very unlikely to work in the best schools