Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

👏 👏 👏 @LetItGo99

Or maybe those “three times as many” realise that it’s not just the private school families that are affected, as state schools and in particular SEN provision are going to be negatively impacted too?

Interested to know the make up of the polling sample before I take the stats at face value - 2068 respondents (2500 is considered the minimum to be representative) and how were they selected?

Were they self selecting in response to a social media ad (ie already biased one way or another, or of a particular demographic due to the SM used); what ages and class demographics were actually included (ie were they recruited by the Guardian, a union, or the ToryGraph?). Most polls carried out by YouGov, for example, are not actually that representative - they consist mainly of non working people with the time to mess about on polls (ie the unemployed, SAHP, students, doing it in exchange for credits towards gift vouchers, or bored retirees who may be out of touch and more likely to be Right leaning).

I’d like to see this replicated in a few repeat polls, ideally with a bigger sample in each, before I believe it. That the Guardian has lapped it up with little critical assessment, also doesn’t persuade me to its reliability.

@LetItGo99
‘From feeling fine about paying that whopping amount of tax that makes this country run, I've now gone to absolute rage and confusion’

This is where our household is too. Similar tax payers and have swallowed the fact that we’ve HAD to go private to support out SEN kids because a) we appreciate how luck we are to be able to afford to do so and b) because maybe our taxes will support other families in the same boat who can’t afford to do so. DH and I have both volunteered - run brownies/scouts (me) and coached Cricket and other sport (him) to ensure kids, especially those in looked after and vulnerable families, get to have access to the sporting and outdoor ed opportunities our kids got. We thought it was the decent thing to do given how fucking lucky we’ve been ourselves to get from state schools, poverty/council homes/free meals in my case, to university and great city jobs where we can protect and financially plan for our kids.

Now? I feel like a total fucking mug.

Another PP talks about feeling less generous? Hell, yes, I feel less generous. We will use any and all tax loopholes now to circumvent IHT etc and ensure our kids, and only our kids, get the future benefit of our assets. And if that means taking up overseas roles once they start uni next year, selling up and moving overseas (ie no stamp duty on the next property of £2m plus, or £250k in PAYE etc), then yes we’ll do it because threads like this demonstrate just how much spite and disdain people feel towards us and the absolute lack of compassion and consideration they feel towards my kids.

I am done here.

I can foresee that a lot of charitable donations will be getting redirected from other causes to people’s alma maters.

There was a discussion about that on mn some time ago. The thread was on the inadequacies of state school budgets and a poster suggested that state schools should organise fund raising from alumni as this is done very successfully in private schools.
However, every excuse was made as to why it wouldn’t work - no one would be prepared to take on the admin, how would they contact former pupils etc., no one would want to give to their old school etc.
This was some time ago, though, so maybe some state schools have tried this.

@CautiousLurker01 ‘And if that means taking up overseas roles once they start uni next year, selling up and moving overseas’

Funny you should say that. My partner has just (before Xmas) been offered a job in the UAE. Great job, great salary, tax free (more or less). We’re thinking about it.

Not sure we’d sell up. Maybe Airbnb it - keep a nice income rolling in from the UK too. Though that bit would be taxed, it’ll keep a base for us / our children later. If this is how Labour wish to play it, this is how we’ll play it.

Lol one of the jobs my DH has been approached for is in UAE too, though I’d rather we landed in the EU, due to cheap university fees (free in Germany, as little as.a thousand Euros per semester in some other countries, amazing well funded post-grad opportunities fro MScs/PhDs, if that’s their thing). We’re thinking of going down the family trust route for the house…

DH has been headhunted many times over to UAE jobs with huge salaries, offers of boarding school fees paid back here or day schools there etc. We would never have touched any of those offers with a barge pole. We have a house worth several million, very high salaries and other property and trust funds. We are taxed to the absolute hilt but I still would never have taken my daughters especially to live there.

You really should. You will get money back on all charitable donations - so you can just calculate how much you want to give (adjusted for tax relief). Basically, it is a way for you to target your charitable giving - and there is a tax break involved (a real one 😀).

Don’t knock it if you’ve no idea what it’s like. No good only listening to what you hear in msm.

We lived and worked there years ago. Felt much safer than London (which I love). Better qol too, and that was then.

Still, each to their own! 🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️

I have a lot of idea what it is like to live there ,believe me. There are more important things in life than money.

True true. It’s a shame so many people think it’s ok to judge people who have more than they do!

I try to see the best in people. I never really feel any negativity from people about what we have and it's a lot more than most.

“Labour has been warned that its pledge to recruit 6,500 teachers will cost £5 billion a year while the VAT policy will raise just £1.8 billion.”

Hmmm, so that means what - that the VAT will pay for one ninth of a new teacher per school?!

Bravo Labour, bra-fucking-vo!!!

VAT on private schools ‘won’t raise enough to hit new teacher target’

https://www.thetimes.com/article/a4c6900a-64ee-4379-a590-dea8c8b5c324?shareToken=24396070ceb8b1a8307238a0f523cfa4

Some state schools do that - I've been supporting DC1's grammar, they're not very proactive but regularly put info on their web site e.g. they needed something for a new library recently. Also have been donating to a local primary my DC never went to.

I had to stop these donations, sadly.

People do all of those things anyway.

It’s how the wealthy stay wealthy.

It’s really not any different to the YouGov poll from February 2023 of 2939 UK adults showing 54% in favour of VAT on school fees.

Or the Ipsos poll from October 2023 of 2036 adults showing 57% of adults in favour, repeated in September 2024 with 2075 adults showing 55% in favour.

That’s pretty consistent.

And according to the British Polling Council a survey requires at least 1000 people to take part to be considered representative, so all of these exceed that number.

https://www.pepf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/PEPF-Poll-Report-2.pdf A very brief report from the Think Tank that commissioned the survey reported in the Graun. Interesting how the poll questions were worded.

This brilliant Yes Prime Minister sketch tells you everything you need to know about the manipulation of polling….

Indeed. The do you agree pr disagree with: It is unfair that some people with a lot of money get a better education and life chances for their children by paying for a private school. Is deeply biased and leading. Had the question been: is it unfair that some people are able to access independent school education for their children, especially if they have SEN needs, because they can afford it? The results may have been different. The use of ‘people with a lot of money’ and ‘better education and life chances’ is hardly neutral? After all, yes, I would hope my SEN kids will get better life chances by an individualised education that the LEA was unable to provide them.

ETA the IPSOS poll was similarly loaded in the framing of statement sto agree or diagree with, I note now too: It is not fair to have tax breaks for
schools that only benefit children of those who are better off. It’s not a ‘tax break’ - as the schools don’t pay the VAT, the parents do, and a tax break can only occur where it is normally charged - it never has been because it is not permitted to tax it under EU law. And again it uses ‘those who are better off’ when this is not necessarily the case amongst the cohort of parents I know. These include single mums living in ex council houses, builders, state school teachers, usually with kids with SEN or needing the extended school day of 8am-6pm in order to be able to work full time.

The phrasing of those polling questions is an utter disgrace. How biased can they be? Shame on anyone involved.

Brilliant post! This country is in for a rough ride for the next few years. Too many good, hardworking people are having some hard conversations about their future in the UK.

You see it is this kind of post that hardens my support for the policy. A tac is not spitefulness.

No, they don't always. That's your prejudice misleading you.

A pp just said above that they don't put their charitable giving on their tax form to reclaim income tax. Now maybe they will.

I've paid 62% marginal tax previously. I never will again. If Labour remove pension relief, I'll reduce working hours or go back to contracting (which gives other options).

On another thread I saw previously, a poster who is a tax advisor said that Labour's tax-grab on farmers has caused a huge amount of phone calls from non-farmers asking about IHT planning. The loss of goodwill from this vindictive attack by Labour will certainly do similar.

You'll see, I guess. And we will be asking questions and making FOI requests about the financial impact over the next 10 years, and making sure we let everyone know. We won't let Labour sweep their vindictive fuck up under the carpet.

It is spitefullness when the intention is to remove something good from children simply because you don't want them to have it, rather than because it will benefit anyone else.

What difference does your hardening support for this policy make?

It won't make a financial impact on the country, like the pp who will take their £250k per year income tax and ££million IHT to another country, will it?