Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

The priced out comment is right. Many MN posters who support VAT couldn't care less, obviously, as they are probably at an income level where private school will never be an option for their children. It feels generally unfair in that they see "posho" kids getting to gambol on rugby and lacrosse fields or whatever, straight into high paying jobs that they believe won't be open to their children. The jump in class, income, social and economic capital is too out of reach. It's far enough away to make it easy to hate the "rich" and wish their own kids had that. Labour banked on this and they are riding that wave.

But they have underestimated how many people really hate this policy. Because the reality is that those "rich bastards" aren't that many - there are actually many many multitudes more of average middle class folks who really hoped to afford private school for at least some of their children's schooling. And the worse the state system gets, the more desperate they are to want the alternative education provided by schools outside the state system. It is pure aspiration and hope for their own children. This one single tax, in one fell swoop, makes it impossible, at any stage of their children's schooling. The rage will only grow if the state system doesn't improve at all, or worsens, and more and more parents cannot opt out anyway, as the alternative either doesn't exist (closed) or is too expensive. It's far more than 7% independent school families who feel this way.

Look at the mid year binning off of funding for Latin in state schools - sure it's only 1000 kids who I'm sure were often in selective schools or naice state areas but it's yet another sign that labour doesn't have either executive competence, or any aspiration to truly support a more diverse curriculum.

She’s now claiming that middle class parents were already being priced out of independent schools and making the move to state

The middle class being squeezed out of private education has been reported on for at least the last 10 years.

Here is The Telegraph reporting in 2015:

Private school fees 'at their least affordable since the 1960s', research shows. School fees are at their least affordable for middle-class parents since at least the 1960s.

https://archive.ph/0I1jW

And again in 2023:

Surging fees and stagnant wages have priced middle-class families out of Britain’s private schools, new analysis has revealed.

https://archive.ph/Pffjj

This is precisely what drives many to the private sector in the first place. A one size fits all comp does not suit all children. I can’t see the problem with a broad curriculum rather than narrowing it down. Our catchment school doesn’t even offer GCSE music, let alone Latin.

What a load of self centered tosh.

My BBF DD has just landed a job in corp insurance 100k, she is barely 30yo, state school, degree from Cardiff.

My own DD, has a job where she work pretty much anywhere in the world and whilst not earn 100k, is around 40k right now, not even 25yo.

I paid higher rate tax for much of my working life.

The jealousy argument is tiresome.

The country has run out of money, thanks to Austerity Brexit and a mis managed pandemic..... hence it can no longer afford to give, to the vast amount of parents who can easily afford it, a tax break ie no VAT on what is essentially a luxury item.
If you don't like it, go to a state school, its free, like 94% of parents do for their kids because what you re basically saying is the least well off can work, pay taxes so you do not have too.

And yet our government can’t see how an overnight 20% hike in fees might price even more out.

The VAT will raise minimal funds which wont make a different to the state sector (the IFS have said this)

‘hence it can no longer afford to give, to the vast amount of parents who can easily afford it, a tax break ie no VAT on what is essentially a luxury item’

In that case, we should also add VAT to air travel, private health care, luxury care homes, private nurseries etc, which a large proportion of the poupulation can’t afford. Perhaps we could also tax caviar and cake whilst we are at it; unless of course people are going to start arguing that caviar and first class flights offer a greater social good than educating our children well.

Many families can no longer afford a university education. Adding 20% onto tuition fees would help with the university funding crisis.

I agree. Plus the ever increasing incidence and diagnosis of SEND, meaning that local state schools aren’t meeting the needs of SEND kids, so some of their families jump or are pushed out of state education and into paying for private.

That jump/push will become possible for far less parents to do. But with no more money going in to state SEND support, it means even more women losing their jobs because their kids don’t have a suitable state school to go to and so are left waiting months/years at home. It means even more kids with SEND in state education that doesn’t meet their needs, to the detriment of that child and also often their classmates. It means even more state school teachers leaving teaching or retiring sooner. It’s setting up a vicious circle for state schools.

But it’s still true that the middle classes have been squeezed out for at least the last decade, so Phillipson isn’t wrong?

LOL - you have no idea about independent schools do you? There are about 10 near me, most of them in the top 20 in the league tables. My DC went to two of them. No latin, no lacrosse, in fact no cricket either at the last school - to my DH’s disgust (he had to train as a coach and take DS and a few of his mates to a local club, out of school hours).

At my DCs’ last school, amongst the parents there were several Oscar/BAFTA winners (direction and acting), comedians/actors/authors, a billionaire tech mogul who kindly hosted the leavers/leavers prom free of charge from his £30m mansion, but the majority of us were just professional parents, SAHMs, and even - would you know it - some builders, plumbers and state school teachers. We also had 8 Ukrainian refugee families fully funded by the school’s charitable trust and additionally supported by the parents all coming together to fundraise, help with accommodation and jobs, and reaching out to help them feel part of the wider school/local community.

Ironically mine are now in a state 6th form/tech college and the eldest is actually learning Latin as an extra curricular - they’ve applied to read classics as a result. Not something that would have been possible at their private school.

Undoubtedly independent school fees have risen fairly sharply over the last decade (?) and that this has priced parents out.

I went to independent school from age 14 and there is no way my parents - Further Education college principal and state school MFL teacher - would have been able to afford it 30 years on. (Incidentally it was their decades of experience of state education that made them determined to send my sibling and me to independent secondary school.)

My point was that Bridget is trying to lay the ground for the fact that the policy will raise far less and cost far more than when it was initially trumpeted.

Which may come as a surprise to some supporters who were expecting a part share in an extra teacher and a bowl of cornflakes from it, but it’s now beyond doubt that revenue raising was never a genuine aim of the policy in the first place.

I’m confused. We all contribute via tax to fund state schools, whether our kids take up a state school place or not. Private school parents are already subsidising places in the state system. Which is a good thing.

But suddenly whacking 20% extra on top of school fees is going to kill off a lot of that surplus money supply to state schools. Because more kids will transfer from private to state schools because their families are priced out. That is bad for kids at state schools who won’t get any more money from this policy, they will have their school’s resources and teachers spread out even thinner to accommodate more kids in their class.

I’m really glad for your kids though! Luckily yours had already left school before the worst of the austerity budget cuts had hit schools in the UK.

She’s saying that the 20% real terms increase over the last decade has squeezed people out of the private sector. She’s also saying that an overnight hike of 20% will squeeze only a tiny percentage out. Which does she believe, because the two statements are contradictory?

Lol, Latin is the opposite of a diverse curriculum. It's an entirely regressive offering meant to play to nostalgia of what (a certain cohort of parents') education was. DS did Latin for a couple of years 11-13 and they were using exactly the same text books I had in the 1980s. Thankfully he switched to an extra MFL, which the last government would have put more funding into if they were actually interested in a "diverse curriculum".

"man in hot dog suit gif*

Well that might be your experience @tortoise18 but Latin pretty essential to any study of pre modern history or ancient history - not trying to recreate any lost private school past here...

I'm not saying there's absolutely no use for it, certainly if you're planning on a niche academic career. It's also useful for a year or two as a simple primer for tenses/declensions etc in other languages... but then so are other languages. It's also known as a pretty "easy A", which is another reason private schools love it.

hence it can no longer afford to give, to the vast amount of parents who can easily afford it, a tax break ie no VAT on what is essentially a luxury item.

It’s not ending a tax break. That’s deeply dishonest and the Treasury should be ashamed of tweeting that lie today. It’s a new tax. You can think it a good thing or a bad thing but it’s a lie that a tax break has been ended.

But that's really reductive @tortoise18 - so a subject has to be useful to be offered? Fear we may have to agree to disagree. But yes, Labour clearly don't plan to support anything not 'useful'.

I do think Latin has uses yes but overall I'm for diverse people finding as many ways to study things that interest them as possible - we've all got plenty of time to herd to boring jobs in later life.

The reality is it’s not a tax break and now it will be a cost as more kids transfer to state I cannot listen to BP without losing my head however if she is now back tracking she is despicable. Wait until the grammar school bun fight starts what a mess

I am being reductive, and yes, ideally schools would be able to offer 25 worthwhile subjects, but seeing as they can't the Latin wouldn't be my first choice to keep personally.

Anyway, this is a long way off topic, so maybe we can gently agree to disagree here!

and biology and a fair bit of sciences in general

Latin is useful to have when studying Medicine.

The question is why is dear Bridget suddenly publishing in the Telegraph of all places? And trying to conjure up public support in a defensive stance? Will they lose in court on the SEND angle and undermine the human rights act as regards SEND?

Whilst everyone is piling on Bridget on this thread, it’s like people have forgotten that the Tories didn’t do much for state education whilst they were in power. Whilst the triple lock was protected the amount of money spent on education per pupil did not increase much. The formula for amount per head still heavily favours London and that is depicted in the GCSEs results being higher in London.
the teachers have at least now stop striking and got an ok pay rise. More pay rises will be needed to keep the profession of interest, funding per pupil will need to go up. The funding will need to go up for sen. All of this needs money which needs to come from tax.
the only good news in a way is that the number of children born each year is decreasing so there are less children to fund in future years.

whilst many people on this thread maybe annoyed because they now have to pay tax on education.there were no such threads when the private schools were raising fees above inflation before this tax. And before someone says teacher pensions the state had to pay for the equivalent.

so whilst I appreciate that people on this thread seem to think that if they moan enough labour will reverse this policy I don’t think this will happen. As for the tories and the Liberal Democrat’s have either of these agree to reverse this policy if they were elected? If not this thread is all moot and tax on private education will become the norm.