Should I be worried about class sizes?

[Happyoverhere82]

DS is in year 4 at our local (lovely) primary school. There are a number of private schools in the area and I overheard parents yesterday saying they were assuming class sizes will have to increase at our school as they had lots of friends who were leaving the private schools because of VAT. DS class is already at 30 children, and we were concerned already as theres a new housing estate going up 1/2 mile down the road! If all these children leave the private schools where will they go? All the primary schools near here are either outstanding/good so very sought after and probably a good alternative option for the parents who have been priced out of their schools. DH thinks we should talk to the head about it but I dont want to be alarmist! Though I'm very concerned.

What’s the point of talking to the Head about something that hasn’t happened and might not happen? What do you expect the Head to say? He/she won’t want huge classes as it makes life much harder for teachers. They can’t go above 30 in infants classes anyway.

Same where I live, my dgd’s are in a state school one in reception class size is 22 the one in year four class size 24.

I was going to say something similar to Miffylou. Although a year 4 child isn't in infants.

Realistically, a head teacher will always have a whole bunch of things to keep them awake at night - unless lots of children have already been pulled out of their independent schools, this might not be one of them. I would be amazed if a head teacher gave any sort of undertaking to current parents that he or she won't accept new children. If the children can no longer go to their current schools, they will have to go somewhere.

Bulge classes are not likely to be a great solution for private school parents with more than one child already in school. The school is unlikely to be able to increase in size throughout the year groups so might just take an extra class for one year group. Parents may find themselves taking their yr4 to one school and their yr2 to a different school. The appeal rules seem to think this is perfectly fine and ignore how hard it is to get a child to school in two different places at the same time.

Our school, and all others in the local area are saying that their numbers on roll are falling. Many schools (ours included) are moving to mixed age classes as we cannot maintain 2 classes in each year group with only perhaps 40 in each year. That's a fall from being full with 60 in each year, and last year having a bulge year of 64.

I can't see many ex-private parent wanting to drop their children into large class sizes, even if the school is rated very good or above (and as we know, the label for schools has been dropped by OFSTED as it has been the case in Wales for years, making it harder for parents to make a snap judgement about a school) so the additional pupils may end up travelling further as a PP has said, and finding places where there are smaller class sizes naturally. Some won't and may have to be fitted in by schools with larger classes.

That’s always been a challenge for anyone moving house and school with school age children in the state system, unfortunately. Getting the oldest child a place often moves the younger one up the waiting list as a sibling, so if you are lucky, the period of two school runs can be quite short (or you can leave the younger in private until a place materialises). Or compromising on school choice slightly can yield two places in a less desirable primary.

They can’t go above 30 in infants classes anyway.

They can if they go over 30 because of excepted pupils.

I posted another thread and yes the year 3 class at my school has 38, most new joiners are ex private, and yes it’s completely legal. (My dc is in year 2 at 30 kids so terrified what’s going to happen next year - spoke to the MP but he said its councils had to give everyone a place) All the existing year 3 parents are pissed off as the teacher’s focus is on the disruptive kids so the class keeps on getting interrupted and learning has suffered.

If that’s the case, your school probably will get the surplus. However, your son is on year 4 so probably won’t see it in his year group. Most private parents will try their utmost to keep their child where they are until the next natural moving point, in your case, year 7.

State school class sizes in certain areas will go up. It’s the effect of more kids from private joining. I am sure the state system can handle it and just add more tables and chairs, job done

Except 3% have left already before VAT comes in + there are 1000s of kids currently trying to get state school places

Our prep school has about 150 kids. So far 7 kids have left to join state schools. We have been there 4 years and no known of anyone leaving to join a state school previously.
The school is shrinking and can't afford to lose any kids but the fees have gone up 30% in the last 4 years and VAT is looming. The school has already stopped giving out scholarships.

I should add they are moving in all years not just year 7 - year 2, year 6, year 7, year 8. The school only goes up to year 8.

No spaces in the popular schools round here. Plenty in the less popular.

If there are 5 private schools in your area, then I'm willing to bet there is also more than one state school option. Might not be the desired choice, but I bet somewhere they have 7 places.

It sad that we have a Government directly and deliberately interfering with so many children’s lives especially so soon after Covid. Those in Years 5, 6 and 7 currently took the full brunt of Covid as they missed some key years in KS1. We know they are behind, especially in literacy. But this is populism at its worst yet again, being played out in front of us.

Hopefully our wonderful state schools and teachers will be able to handle it as best they can and as they have already had to due to the Tories and cruel cuts for many years. I am hoping any displaced private school teachers will also be welcomed in. It is very difficult for all families affected. My advice to the OP would be if it comes to it, your school will hopefully be able to afford some extra TAs. We have wonderful and very experienced TAs in our school and they make a huge difference.

@CocoDC not coming back to clarify?

Catchment areas will effectively become smaller and kids that previously got into better schools on distance will end up in the less desirable schools with spaces

in extreme circumstances PAN can be increased to 33 but not higher

it’s a joke that it will level the playing field. Pushy middle class parents (I include myself in that category) will, instead of paying private school fees, instead spend the money on making sure they live in the right areas. So certain areas next to the better state school will end up even more expensive/out of reach

But in terms of the OPs school, I wouldn’t worry too much

Slightly O/T but there was some surprise as our Secondary school has just increased PAN (210 to 240). The rolls at the local primary schools have been falling slightly (class sizes of 27ish instead on 32 as the baby boom moved through). There is a lot of house building going on... or does the council know something? There is a private school a mile away, but they are building flashy new facilities

Those in Years 5, 6 and 7 currently took the full brunt of Covid as they missed some key years in KS1.

All years took a hit from covid, I don’t think any one group took the brunt.

“There is a private school a mile away, but they are building flashy new facilities”

Presumably so they can deduct VAT and raise a tax free income renting it out afterwards.

It depends where you live. We live in quite an expensive area and, as young families just can't afford the houses round here, numbers in local schools are falling dramatically. Our local school would be only too happy to have a few more pupils on the roll so that they are fully funded.

Falling rolls overall may be why Heads are not refusing applicants who push individual classes well above PAN - if you’re desperately missing funding due to being 10 pupils down in Reception, the temptation to say ‘yes’ to a 33rd or 34th child in Year 3 must be real.

in extreme circumstances PAN can be increased to 33 but not higher

PAN, which is not the same as class size (although some classes do have more than 33 pupils), can be higher than 33.

As part of planning, the local authority will be asked to estimate the increase in early years, primary and secondary pupil numbers that will be expected because of a new housing. This means that a large development of 3 and 4 bedroom houses will generate a predicted increase in the school place need, and the LA will work with local schools accordingly. So I’m not surprised if a secondary is increasing PAN because of more house building.