Should I be worried about class sizes?

[Happyoverhere82]

DS is in year 4 at our local (lovely) primary school. There are a number of private schools in the area and I overheard parents yesterday saying they were assuming class sizes will have to increase at our school as they had lots of friends who were leaving the private schools because of VAT. DS class is already at 30 children, and we were concerned already as theres a new housing estate going up 1/2 mile down the road! If all these children leave the private schools where will they go? All the primary schools near here are either outstanding/good so very sought after and probably a good alternative option for the parents who have been priced out of their schools. DH thinks we should talk to the head about it but I dont want to be alarmist! Though I'm very concerned.

one of the main reasons i moved mine to private

DD 16 in class
DS 18

as opposed to 33

@flipdiddle81 yes but the OPs worry is people will be pulling their children out of private so schools like her child's will become overcrowded with bigger classes.

Class sizes won't increase

DC will just be forced to go to less popular schools further afield that's all

Extra classrooms might be added on as necessary

There's not going to be a huge influx of private school DC unless the school has to close down due to lack of pupils

I think you would need to wait to see what happens. I live in an Outstanding School area but the schools are still so shit compared to the local private schools and nowhere is this more evident than at primary. It’s very possible parents will move mountains to try and get their kids to stay in private so you might not have a problem. In terms of the new build estate - that’s probably going to attract private school parents too.

He’s in year 4, he’s only got two years left. There is a maximum capacity. They won’t just push the class numbers up to 40 to accommodate the private school kids.

up to 33 it will go

Loads of schools have up to 33 already for whatever reason it is barely noticeable

Emily Thornberry admitted that some class sizes would rise as a consequence. Schools can be forced to go over PAN if all other schools are also full.

I hope this is true. There are quite a few private schools within 5 miles of DS school and one of our parents said yesterday she knew personally of 7 families who were moving their DC. To me, the maths doesn't stack up as there just isn't space for them all where we are.

This is my worry as DS class size is "small" - all the other schools are at 33 already.

Well the private schools won't want to lose any pupils so they'll come to an arrangement with each family

All of the local state primaries near us have class sizes of 40. One has 45. At KS1. Their logic is that many of the kids are only there temporary and it will reduce at KS2 when they combine year groups.

Just worry about it when it happens

It hasn't even happened yet in your DS class

So you're worried over nothing

The children potentially could get allocated any school in your county. Not even one in your town. If all the schools are full they might get sent to one in the next county over.
Schools might expand but this might mean temporary classrooms (porta cabins) but I can't imagine this can be done until next academic year.

The problem is that it won't be evenly spread throughout the country. Some areas, like yours, have a higher % of indy schools. We are realistically looking at 6-10% of kids leaving Indy schools but most likely from Easter/Sept onwards. So yes in areas with higher % of indy schools the impact will be higher than areas with a lower % of indy.
Any child leaving Indy will be offered schools with existing spaces but if all local schools are full then they can be forced to go over PAN.
Fundamentally no point worrying because it is all up in the air anyway.

No they won't/can't. That's ridiculous that each school will sit down with each parent to work out a solution!
Schools will have to charge VAT, it isn't negotiable

It is possible that if all schools within a reasonable travelling time are full, then the LA will have to use its powers under the Fair Access Protocol to force whichever school it thinks can best cope to go over numbers.

Some areas are potentially going to be affected. That the demographic fall means that there is (on a nationwide basis) an oversupply of places for the u8s is meaningless when it comes to older pupils (in general) and definitely not in some areas where supply is barely keeping up with local demand anyway.

I would focus more on the likely landscape for secondary school and plan any moves before October yr6. The head will not plan to admit fewer pupils because Mr Happyoverhere82 has asked him not to.

Our state primary school takes as many kids as they can fit into the classes as it means extra funding which they desperately need. They handle it well as they plan lessons very carefully and they use the extra funding for TAs to tailor the education. They take kids based on the needs in the various classes.
Ex private school parents will get a right to appeal if the LA do not give them any school places. If that includes lots of kids with SEND, yes it is going to be difficult for all of our children. But do not worry, Labour has promised it will all be fine!!!

That won’t happen. The majority of the schools have minimal surplus meaning the only way to retain those who can’t afford it is to charge the full fee payers even more.

Most schools are reducing bursaries and moving towards a model where the vast majority are full fee payers. They have no alternative really in most cases.

This is literally against the law; there is a hard limit of 30 children per class in EYFS and KS1. Unless you aren't in England?

Even in KS2, a school won't take extra kids just because they pitch up. If classes are already at 30/31, they will be able to make a very credible argument to refuse more children, and any children on the waiting list will be accommodated according to the existing admission criteria.

“Even in KS2, a school won't take extra kids just because they pitch up. If classes are already at 30/31, they will be able to make a very credible argument to refuse more children, and any children on the waiting list will be accommodated according to the existing admission criteria.”

That is simply not true! Our state primary routinely has 33-35 and actually welcomes it in the classes that are not otherwise difficult. Depends on the school and the head and how they organise themselves. There is no legal upper limit at KS2?

Pupils placed under the FAP are excepted from the headcount for Infant Class Size rules. Certain others are also excepted. So it can be completely legal to operate with >30 in years R-2

OP says her DC is in yr4, where ICS does not apply.

And our grammar schools actually want to expand so our incentivised to take more into Sixth Form! So stop peddling nonsense.

There is the official Government rhetoric and then there are the school heads/academies who are more than happy to get extra funding and take in good supportive families and academic kids. It is exactly what they want. Just because Labour is denying that, does not mean it is not going to happy. Pretty obvious all round!

I presume your school’s PAN is 30?

This means that when a parent applies for a place (other than in Reception) they will be told the school is full, and they will have to appeal for a place. They may also be offered a place at a different (almost certainly unpopular / less well regarded) school, if one has places.

When the appeal is held, the panel (for KS2) will be balancing the prejudice to the school of taking that additional pupil vs the prejudice to the child of not being admitted to that particular school.

Where there are multiple appeals for the same school, if the panel finds that there is space for eg 1 extra child but not 6, they will decide which child has the best case for admission.

If a child is at risk of having no school place at all within a reasonable distance (note - not no school place of their choice: if a place is available in a ‘very much non-preferred school’ then it is that place they will be offered) then the Fair Access Protocol can be invoked, where a school is directed to take the child. Note that the school directed to take the child is NOT of the parents’ choice: it is the one judged to have the most capacity to absorb the extra child).

If your child’s school has classes of 30, this may be evidence of a relatively static population, where most children start at Reception and few leave ir join going up the school. Or it may be that it has small classrooms or very small corridors or a small hall that means they have successfully defended the class size at appeal (ie the prejudice to the child has had to be unusually high to overcome the significant prejuduce to the school).

I have worked in an area where KS2 appeals were extremely common, as families moved into the catchment for a secondary. Different schools maintained different class sizes despite multiple appeals to all; one of 30, one of 32, one of 31. None went higher except in unusual circumstances (a bulge of 33 due to twins, for example). Children were often allocated instead to somewhat more distant but still reachable schools.

The private school parents who think they will automatically get a state school
place of their choice are due an appeal-filled set of surprises, I fear.