Will VAT on private school fees lead to a partial collapse of the sector?

[mids2019]

Will VAT on school fees coupled with cost of living drive a lot of parents from the private sector or will the majority absorb the cost? Are the numbers that potentially end up in the public sector going to offset any gains to the treasury through VAT?

Labour are working at about 4-5% transfer rate to the public sector but is this an underestimate?

I think we may have read different articles. The advice was on how "crumbling" state schools had to manage with budget cuts due to austerity. The idea that there are no possible efficiencies in the private sector is on the risible side.

I don't agree with the full article, and I'm not stating an opinion on the policy itself, but the ideas that (a) there aren't going to be sufficient places in the state sector; (b) private schools will have no option but to add full VAT to current fees; and (c) the impact of the school population decline won't also have had an impact on the private sector as well as the state sector (the contention of the Times article) deserve to be challenged.

Not locally - all primary round here have spaces. DS’s is rated outstanding (re-inspected this year, so not a historic rating from ten years ago). Free music lessons for all, excellent MFL and drama provision from Reception.

Exactly the kind of school that appeals to middle class parents who might also consider going private. We have 45 kids on a PAN of 60, and are going down to single form entry from next year.

I don’t think anyone proposing or supporting this policy seriously thinks it is going to improve education for anyone. Its very clear that’s not the point.

The scale of the falling rolls

“The report also finds that total pupil numbers in state-funded primary and secondary schools are projected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million in 2022/23 to 7.14 million in 2028/29, due to a declining birth rate.
London and the North East are expected to see the biggest decline in pupil numbers.”
“The North East is projected to have the greatest decline pupil numbers - 12.7% between 2023 to 2029 - at primary school level, with Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and London projected to see the greatest decrease at secondary level.”

Yes sorry I can imagine Primary’s are ok.

I was talking about Secondary education, should’ve specified.

It’s just a brief feel good thing? Although not in a good way

Creating higher inequality between state and private and putting extra strain on the state sector

No wonder we’re the only ones doing it.

If they're truly concerned, perhaps those grammar schools should follow the example of some of the Birmingham grammars and alter their selection processes to ensure that kids from deprived backgrounds get a degree of priority?

A poster on a previous thread pointed out the impact of the shift in admissions arrangements had made to how representative the intake was compared to the usual intake of grammars.

Though I'd prefer to get rid of grammars altogether, this approach is an improvement.

Yes grammars can set their own entry requirements so can adjust if they wish to

The most interesting thing in school funding will be seeing what any government does with the windfall in the education budget from the contraction in pupil numbers - whether the Treasury claws it back or whether it's ring fenced for schools and the funding model is changed. Fingers crossed the latter.

Different definitions of “middle earners” I think.

Local private day school fees are around £28k per year. I certainly couldn’t afford that on my pretty decent salary, let alone afford to send two or more children, and yet there is fierce competition for places.

So either substantial family help, or two parents both earning well over six figures. Totally out of reach for actual middle earners!

As @Pollipops1 states it isn’t so much about cutting your cloth according it is having a completely different lifestyle from the outset.

I earn a very good salary but live in a property that is way cheaper than most of my peers on similar incomes choose. I probably earn 3x what anyone else in my road earns.

My situation is also exacerbated by the fact we’re older parents so we need to have plenty saved up to cover the fees because we’ll have retired well before DS finished school so can’t rely on paying from income for the full 14 years.

For now we lead a lifestyle of a household on perhaps half the income we have and will continue doing so until we have the full fee amount saved up.

No, it is the same article - see the part where it says they should open their swimming pools?

With your b) - I think you are far more likely to find some schools in the private sector simply cuts bursary funding and scholarships and use the money they would have used (appx 10+ children per year is usual, note, far more than get a FSM note at many grammar schools) and use it to fight the rise. Hardly helpful for inequalities.

My children are in a private school. Lots of parents are talking about the impact . Most parents work to afford their children to go and if the 20% comes into force they will leave as they simply can’t afford it. There’s a perception that parents are rich- statistics show 20% of those at private schools are wealthy enough for no impact but the rest aren’t.

Enrolment to the school has dropped as the not knowing is causing parents to put children in state schools when before they would have put them in private schools.

As a teacher myself in a state school- I’m not sure where the extra children will go. It’s going to mean we need more schools, more teachers who have the relevant qualifications. Private school teachers don’t need the teaching qualifications so it’s not simply a case of moving teachers from private into state if they don’t have the relevant qualification.

At the moment the children in private school are not using there school allowance from the government. When the children leave private and go into state education they will then be using their allowance so cost the tax payers. I read a report saying the tax increase the government receive from the private school children (with the extra 20%) does not offset how much it will cost the tax payer.

Im really unsure wether it will go through or it’s just a policy labour have said to gain voters.

That’s exactly what will happen. We are planning to send our DS to pre-prep soon and the school which is a 4-18 school has already asked us if we intend to pay full fees as they are reducing bursaries to new entrants to help offset the VAT change.

Im not sure how that is a desirable outcome. It just means lower earning families will be excluded and the school becomes more elitist.

Starmer is clearly a bit bonkers.

We don’t know much about what Labour are proposing, but we Do know 2 things at least.

1. He has stated that some women have penises. He knows this isn’t true. But he insists on lying about it.
2. He is introducing VAT on private school fees. He has stated this will benefit state schools. He knows this isn’t true. But he insists on lying about it.

Labour hate women and they hate people trying to improve their lives.

Labour are pretty grim - this VAT on private school fees situation provides further evidence of that 🤢

Whereas in other parts of the country day fees are around 16K at secondary. For prep schools much lower.

No, it said they should make money out of their facilities out of school hours, not just "open them" as part of meeting their charitable purpose. I know some do already - our football club hires training pitches from a very expensive private school.

A good deal more reliable than the nearby local private school that "opens" its pool for swimming lessons to the nearby state primary, but cancels the lessons at the last minute on a regular basis because the private school had a sudden need of the facility/a timetable change. A couple of times it's happened after the kids have walked to the pool...

On the bursaries point - it will be interesting to see the actual impact when the policy is introduced, and how those schools that largely rely on bursaries to evidence their charitable purpose.

I think his differentiators are woeful because there’s not much else he will do.

So they’ll create headlines but have negative impacts

Well I suppose the schools locally better hope it stays open unless they can afford to buy and maintain the pool and the pitches.

Oh wait, the developers won't care.

It's no leap to imagine some private schools simply saying "we don't want to pay for insurance for after hours swimming/sort a lifeguard" and closing doors that once were open, to help with any cuts. They'll stick to what they need to to be charitable but there won't be much good will if they are struggling to keep their doors open.

Teachers in subjects taught at private school but usually not state may have to teach alternative subjects.

This is ridiculous the state schools deserve teachers teaching in subject and no teacher in an independent just shrugs and says ‘oh ok I’ll teach another subject’.

Kids deserve to be taught by a specialist and the fact that that is often not possible at state schools is a problem that needs addressing not exacerbating.

If only Labour could see further than their noses, they would look to change the catchment area system, which perpetuates as much privilege as the existence of private schools.
We went to see a 3 bed semi recently in a very desirable catchment area in London, the house required a total refurbishment and it was priced at offers over £560k with a bidding war going on…total madness!
Those who bang on about the appropriateness of this VAT policy to achieve more equality ot “make the rich pay”, the private schools are hardly the only problem here.

Well, that's us. I don't know how we will afford it, currently on a bursary.

I don’t need to do better, I am doing fine thank you. People who send their kids to private school are not special, they are wealthy and choosing a luxury. Good for them. I just don’t feel sorry for them. If they want they can save for their luxuries and make choices, just like the rest of us. If they don’t want, they can join the state sector.

I'm a little confused - what would be the incentive for opening after hours unless it was profitable? That's the entire point of the Leung piece - finding extra revenue streams is one of the options available to private schools if their customer base can't afford the full VAT rise.

Well that’s just a reflection on people you know. Not much else.