Will VAT on private school fees lead to a partial collapse of the sector?

[mids2019]

Will VAT on school fees coupled with cost of living drive a lot of parents from the private sector or will the majority absorb the cost? Are the numbers that potentially end up in the public sector going to offset any gains to the treasury through VAT?

Labour are working at about 4-5% transfer rate to the public sector but is this an underestimate?

The state refused to support my son who has ASD when I asked to have him taken back into that sector.
you do need to check your ableist privilege.

This will inflate them even more. It is certainly what we will do if we have to pull DD out.

So I live near a v.good state secondary. A bog standard terrace is 1.2m, semi 1.5 plus etc I don’t think prices will increase much more what with current interest rates (they have stagnated a bit) & because of an extra approx 5k a yr on fees but maybe I’m wrong.

Sorry that's bollocks and shows a real ignorance of the types of parents at private schools.
Did mortgage owners have years to save up for unpredicted steep mortgage rate rises?

We started saving 8 years ago when there was no mention of VAT.
Most people save or budget for 5-10% increases per year. 5-10% PLUS 20% VAT pushes it over the boundary of affordable for many, me included. You are looking at 2-3K+ extra per year on top of fees rises.
The only people who will comfortably afford it are those where grandparents pay the fees or they are upper earners. Net result = push middle earners out and make private schools truly the dominion of the wealthy.
Bursaries will be cut or kept only for existing pupils.

Yep

If you’re paying fees using salary this is likely not a viable option.

The cost of a like for like move to a better state school catchment area will wipe out the entire fee amount if not more.

Also, complete nonsense that parents have had « multiple years » to plan for this. The imposition of VAT could not have happened prior to Brexit, as it was subject to EU law.

Then you are privileged to live in the catchment of a good state school.
Northern schools receive less funding per pupil than Southern schools and the NE has some of the lowest outcomes in England.

I think a few of the poor performers in areas where there may be 2 or 3 schools will close. The people who were just about managing will choose either home schooling or trying to get into grammar schools or moving to better areas. I think the kids hardest hit in these circumstances will be the ones who had to leave mainstream for SEN reasons. There are a lot of those in the lower-end private schools and they will be costing the state wherever they end up, or falling through the cracks. Their parents may not be as supportive as they could be if they had been relying on boarding to work and not as up to date with helping behind the scenes. Worth bearing in mind some of these kids will be quite disrupted and there will probably be a knock on effect with behaviours in transition. Worse for the SEN kids.

The most elite won't bat an eyelid but it will increase their pull and raise their chances of Russell Group+ entry as there will be less mid-range competition. I imagine a few university courses will disappear from some universities if demand reduces. Possibly science and computer studies will be given a kicking as they were thriving in the independent schools and not so much in general in the state sector (teachers in these subjects can usually get better pay elsewhere).

All that is clear is it will push the poorer kids further down lists in state schools as pushy parents use whatever they can to get their kids seen first/tutored better/on trips and all the things grammar parents usually do. The elite won't give a toss and actually benefit!

No, I don’t need to check my ablelist privilege. I am a teacher in a state school and have a sibling with downs’ syndrome. I am of course able to comment on education policy. I’m actually a Tory voter and not against private schools at all. I am just being realistic that they are a luxury and those of you who choose that luxury have had years to plan ahead and quite obviously you will have planned for this increase.

Yep, the state sector is going to shrink by more than the size of the entire private sector by 2030.

Surely if sufficient parents can't/aren't willing to pay the extra, the schools will have to adjust the product they're offering accordingly? Similar to the impact of the years of above-inflation fee rises. And if they can't provide a product that parents are willing to pay for at a price they're willing to pay for it, then it's not a viable model.

Tim Leunig in the Times/Schools Week was interesting on how the private sector may need to learn from the state sector here....

The only people who will comfortably afford it are those where grandparents pay the fees or they are upper earners. Net result = push middle earners out and make private schools truly the dominion of the wealthy.

I don’t understand how middle earners afford it currently tbh.

That simply isn’t true for the vast majority. Aside from 1 person I know who is using an inheritance to fund it everyone else is paying from income.

Saving for 8+ years.
Not upsizing the house
Only having 1 child
Not constantly having new cars etc
Basically cutting our cloth and making the choice to spend our money on education rather than material things.

Very similar salary to my sister in law and her husband. They clock up PCP on cars, have a big new build detached house etc. We are in a small modest 3 bed semi, my car is 10 yrs old etc etc

Then you are privileged to live in the catchment of a good state school.

I moved here obviously, it didn’t just happen. I am privileged though, I think anyone who can afford private school is.

Same

No one is disputing your right to have an opinion on education policy but Given your personal circumstances, it beggars belief that you would simply shrug your shoulders and say that children with SN can simply be moved to a « great state school ». Praying in aid your relative doesn’t excuse the appalling lack of empathy, and you do need to do better.

That article was very derisory and not at all in line with what happens. Most private schools will open their pools to the public and have swimming lessons for other schools, ditto with sports facilities. Kings in Canterbury for example has a huge outreach programme for local kids and schools as well as global charity works. The idea the crumbling state sector has any 'advice' for these schools is ridiculous. If they close they get sold to a developer, they won't be used for the state sector. No one has the money to transform them into things the state sector needs.

Also, utterly absurd to say people will have planned for a change which would, until very recently, have been unlawful.

State schools need to be full to get the funding they need to provide all the 'extras'
Like mental health support and sufficient TAs.

Saving for 8+ years
Not upsizing the house
Only having 1 child
Not constantly having new cars etc
Basically cutting our cloth and making the choice to spend our money on education rather than material things.

I still don’t get it. I don’t know anyone who can afford private school by just cutting their cloth but then I also don’t know anyone who constantly has new cars.

@Blueroses99
‘ I haven’t been following the proposed changes, but does this include tuition centres, and other educational settings as well? Holiday clubs and after school clubs?
And if they are in scope - given that there is a VAT threshold, would smaller providers potentially become cheaper than larger companies that do need to charge VAT?’

No, at the moment Labour have only specified ‘private schools’. As far as I know.

However, it is not unimaginable that VAT charges on other areas of education could follow.

So far labour have a policy of adding school counsellors. If you have an issue with learning in large groups, this is going to do absolutely nothing.

That simply isn’t true for the vast majority. Aside from 1 person I know who is using an inheritance to fund it everyone else is paying from income.

again I was talking about me but that goes against what you read on most threads on here.

Some people stretch for private, as the stats from @twistyizzy show enrolments have fallen already.

To give an example parents who stressed over getting extra SEN support in private move to state. What’s so beneficial there?

Not to mention the stress for the child

Why is increasing state burden so great anyway?

I think it will push house prices up in the catchments around the good state schools.