I think there is a degree of fantasy going on here.
The truly wealthy, who really push house prices, won’t even notice the VAT.
I wonder how many will leave private due to the non dom changes (leaving the uk), although the transitional arrangements are pretty generous.
Of course, anecdotally, a few may plan ahead and buy close to a ‘good’ state, although obviously the grammars are selective, and not by catchment area, anyway.
My bet is that the IFS estimate of 3-7% leaving due to the fee change is pretty fair. But a lot forget that fees have pushed up more than inflation every single year (bar 2023, when average was a little below) since I was at my £700/term public school in the early 80s.
Every year the demographic in private schools has been changing with more foreigners and truly wealthy, and fewer children of ‘ordinary’ professionals (GPs, normal solicitors, academics etc).
The thing is that, during this period the wealth distribution has totally changed, with the gap between the wealthy and everyone else growing, which is how private schools are more subscribed than ever.
Yes, this will be bad for small private schools out of London and the South East, but will just accelerate the consolidation that is already happening. Schools under 500 are increasingly unviable, even before this.