GCSE Predicted Grade

[LoveHK]

My son is in Year 10, just received a report card. There is a predicted grade, I believed that it is the predicted grade in school.

How does this predicted grade relate to the GCSE predicted grade? Similar, lower or higher?

Thank you

A predicted grade is just what the school thinks he is likely to get. There is no official way of predicting a GCSE grade. There are various platforms that will generate estimates from KS2 or CAT scores, for example, and lots of schools use them for target setting.

I would assume that the predicted grade is his GCSE predicted grade. Is it called a predicted grade rather than a 'working at' grade?

Our Y10s have just sat mock exams, their predicted grade will be based on what they get in that.

How it relates to what they actually get in the real thing depends on how hard they work (or not) next year.

Thanks noblegraiffe.

It is not a mock exam. Refer to the report card, there are assessment grade, working grade then the final column is predicted grade.

Not sure if it can estimate the grade in GCSE. Of coz it depends on how hard they work next year.

It is exactly what it says - his predicted gcse grade if he continues on the track he is currently on.

So I'm guessing your child has got a lower prediction than you are happy with ..
School absolutelycan predict a final grade, based on how they are doing, their attitude, their level of personal study etc. Dd's predicted grades were spot on other than one where she got lower. If you don't like the prediction, it's not the school's fault.

Not sure if it can estimate the grade in GCSE. Of coz it depends on how hard they work next year.

well yes, but if they’re done bugger all in year 10 then they’re unlikely to get back in September and pull it out of the bag. Likewise, they’re unlikely to just stop if they’ve worked like a Trojan for the year.

so, if they carry on doing what they are doing, that grade will be realistically what they can expect.

It's a forecast by his teacher based on his performance and attitude so far, allowing for the fact that there's still more to learn which will also be assessed, but time left to refine skills.

There is no separate 'GCSE prediction', it comes from the school.

Assessment grade is probably the grade they had at their last mock/test

Working grade would be the grade their work is generally at.

Predicted grade is what the teacher predicts they could get at GCSE

It's a prediction of what they can expect to get as a exam result if they carry on working at their current standard.
If it's not good it's not to late to turn it around, my sons weren't the best predictions and it was a wake up call to work harder. He went to every revision club after school and every Saturday morning for over a year and managed to get 7 exams level 6 and above.

the predicted grade is for gcse and will be based on the assessments he has done this year if he continues to work at the same level. these grades are submitted to the exam board in case of illness, disaster etc like during covid- all students were given their predicted grade on their certificates as they couldn't do exams.

Estimated grades are largely meaningless. At best, they are the teachers informed guess as to what the student might achieve if everything goes according to plan between now and the exam. But there are far too many unknowns for them to be accurate. Some students underperform because of exam anxiety or because they decided to ease off on their revision. Others perform better than expected, either because the exam paper played to their strengths, or because they pulled out the stops and had a really good revision period. So in my view, it’s not worth getting stressed about predicted grades. What counts are the actual grades the student achieves when the results come out in August.

i do somewhat agree with this unless it's year 12 predicted A level grades which are used to apply to universities for UCAS.

Thank you stephaniezanoni
Different school have different academic level. If a school with high academic level, then this predicted grade can expected to get on the exam ( assuming that the student keep up the hard work). But if a school with low academic level, this predicted grade may have a discount even the student keep up the good work? thank you.

Estimated grades are largely meaningless.

Not by this stage of Y10 they're not. I'd say they're a reasonable ballpark figure. Kids need to know what sort of grade they'll be looking at to inform their plans for sixth form/college. Open evenings will be early in the Autumn term and no point in looking at e.g. maths A-level if you're on track for a grade 5.

I would expect the predicted grade to be the schools estimate as to what your DC will get given their current attainment level and how hard they try.

Obviously if they suddenly down tools or start putting in significant extra effort that prediction will become less accurate.

What's the issue?

@LoveHK what grades has he been given and what grades do you think he should be getting? Has this come as a surprise? Mine get 3 reports a year, one each term which tracks their progress plus their attitude to learning. If he is predicted lower than he wants then he needs to spend his summer working on improving his grades with guidance from his teachers as to where to focus.

If they are lower then looking ahead as to what impact this may have, as noble says (and they teach maths GCSE and A level, mad respect by the way) if he is achieving a 5 at maths then A level is out. Some A level subjects require a 6 to continue (science languages, maths) also some universities want a grade 6 too in things like maths.

I have had 2 children go through GCSEs, I think end of year 10 grades are a fair indication of where students might be, considering their exam results, classroom tests and discussions plus homework submissions.

It's been a four years but if I remember correctly my son was predicted a 3 or 4 in Maths and English at some point in year 10 but went on to get a 5 and 6 in English and a 7 in Maths. We we're really shocked though that he got a 4 in Sociology and had been working at and was predicted 8/9. This was probably because he put all of his focus on improving Maths and English. He wanted to do an apprenticeship straight out of school as an electrician and you need good results in Maths especially to do that, he should qualify this year (delayed because of covid)
If the predicted grades have your dc concerned all is not lost there's still time with hard work to turn it around. My son was not impressed with having to go to revision lessons every weekend but is grateful now that I made him.

@DesmondsLettuce
He got good predicted grades in school & he will keep up the good work.
We want to know how this relate to the GCSE predicted grade, will it be low or big difference (assuming he keeps up the good work).

You're asking us to predict the future! He's been given a current best guess. He'll sit mocks in Y11 and the predictions will be refined the closer he gets to the exams. But there are never any guarantees.

It all depends on the school. DC's school use Yr6 SATs to form their targets, they will never predict anything higher than those. So say if the yr6 SATs track to a grade 5 then that will be the only grade the school will 'predict' even when the child is working working at an 8 or 9 in yr10 mocks. They will only give the two grades - target and working at. This means that the grades are fairly meaningless. This is why it is probably best for you to ask the school because all schools do things differently. They did begrudgingly say that in terms of other sixth form applications that a child might increase by one grade between yr10 and yr11 but would not put this in writing to us or other schools. They try to retain as many as possible into their own sixth form so I guess have little incentive to give high predicted grades.

Target grades and Predictions are very different.
I think a school is a bit daft never doing predictions.

DD1's Maths target was a C, by the end she was predicted an ambitious A, her final result was a very high B.

What is target grade? He studied in UK since Y9.

but the school should take this into account. Each school is predicting against GCSE exams, not against other kids in the class.

A predicted grade is a good guess at what they will get.
It is based on how they are working, how they are performing and possibly also on exams.

I have had 2 go through GCSE and they are a reasonable prediction. Ds pulled it out of the bag and started working, so got higher, but not dramatically.
Dds teacher told us in parents evening that she was predicted a 6 but if she actually knuckled down and worked really hard she could do better. She did and got an 8.

But her 6 was based on everything she had done in school that far.

Most kids don't suddenly start working and get more in the end.

If you think the predicted grades are low, then it is time for a conversation with your dc about what he/she is planning to do over the next year to pull them up

target - at the end of year 6 they scored XX in tests so we would expect them to score YY at GCSE
working at - right now in class he is working at a level 6
predicted - if he continues at the current pace we would expect him to achieve a 7 in his final GCSE

Thank you