A level results and Oxbridge between grammar and independent

[Lingar]

After analysing school A-level results of Jags, Newstead, and Eltham college, including (subjects), I found it very interesting that Jags and Eltham have similar A* -A % rates much higher than Newstead. But Newstead has a similar amount of candidates (12-16) who went to Oxbridge every year with Jags and even more top London universities in London. Eltham only has 6. I mainly look at 2022 data. Newstead also has very diverse A-level subjects and Uni offers. They all have different strong subjects.
I try to understand that because Jags have some oversea studies (like the US) and more arts college offers, or Oxbridge likes state study candidates more. Also, The Oxbridge rate seems relevant to A-level results and a school programme which helps the application or advice. The above makes me wonder if there is any academic gap between grammar schools and selective independent schools. Some top grammars also have good clubs and activities—maybe not good facilities.

There is a very small gap between Kent and Greater London grammar schools and private academic schools. Tiffin Girls School gets 1 of the highest Oxbridge rates of all girls schools in the U.K. If Oxbridge is your aim a grammar school is statistically a path more likely to achieve an offer rather than a private school.

The gcses are what are sckred contextually in relation to the school where they took gcses for Oxbridge.

you need to look at how many applications were made before you can compare how many were successful - lots of students don't have any interest in applying to Oxbridge

I only can see both schools have the same amount of A-level students, but I am not sure how many applied.

My experience with DD having been at Newstead since Y7 and currently an Oxbridge offer holder, and also friends who have children in the private schools,

1. Newstead will probably not have such a high number of Oxbridge candidates this year, just going on who DD knows who did and didn’t get offers. Clearly it changes each year
2. Newstead genuinely encourages their students to do what they want to do based on what they are passionate about. They give time out for sports people, actors, artists putting on exhibitions, chess champions etc. A friend’s DD at a private school was shoehorned into applying to a RG university but it isn’t really a good fit for that individual IMO, their daughter also wasn’t allowed time out for a sport she competed highly in, I see this a fair bit in some schools chasing the Uni destination leaver list
3. There is movement at sixth form. Newstead is now very much oversubscribed at sixth form (a few years ago it wasn’t so popular). Some move from the private schools to Newstead, some move from other state schools. Some Newstead girls move to other schools.
4. the subject choice at A level at Newstead is good, they have a mechanism for students in Y10 and Y11 to try out subjects on a taster basis in a formal enrichment programme like Classical Civilisation, Politics and Statistics
5. Newstead is part of a MAT that also has private schools
6. yes the Newstead buildings are shabby, they have a rolling programme of development and recently extended the library and also built a new music block. It won’t compete with private schools but having had DD at a shiny private school Y3 to part of Y6 I would put ethos and quality of teaching over shiny buildings.

Thanks for the comments. Congratulation on your DD. That is amazing! Do you mean 2023 results? Jags have 21 offers in Oxbridge (the highest year). I can see Newstead has many improvements in music, a new music block, and they started a music department on Twitter with events and performances. GCSE results are promising, including music subjects—many clubs and language study options. I like their economics is a powerful subject compared with all other schools. is that six forms in a year about 28 students in a class? seems not too many compared with selective private 24/25 in a class...

@Lingar yes I mean 2023 results for which the exams haven’t been taken yet.

Are you trying to decide schools for your DD? Are you waiting on offer day next week or is it for a future year?

I see; are these conditional offers until the test results?
Yes, we will likely have Newstead's offer based on previous years' results.
After visiting Jags and Bromley high post-offer day, we feel Jags is better.
However, we still debate grammar or private as we have two kids and full-fee offers.

Yes mostly conditional offers which is why I say offer rather than place. I know of one that is a deferred place and so not conditional only as they are going to the same college DD is holding an offer from.

Jags and Newstead are quite far apart, I am sure you’ve considered the commute.

How many Newstead got this year?
Yeah, both are similar 1 hr travel for us...

I just noticed Newstead has twice the 6th form students than Jags. That is the reason. Yes, we need to look at how many applied will be more comparison..

You will have to wait just like me, whilst my daughter is an offer holder, she won't know until A level results day if she got a place, but the number of offer holders is (I think!) lower than the number of place holders than 2022 hence my belief that the numbers will be lower this year, but if they all get a place, I also don't have the full picture of deferred entry. It isn't a complete picture that I have. I do think this cohort are also very much about being true to themselves so if they wanted a course Oxbridge didn't offer they are not backwards in going for their ambition elsewhere, I hear of a lot of apprenticeship degrees in engineering, accounting, medical research (but not medicine), etc being popular as the students don't end up with the debt.

DD is 30 minutes door to door, if she takes the bus it is a similar time to walking. She has some friends who travel from quite a distance, but it is easy to get to and public transport is good even when rail strikes happen as it is on more than one line, they often (but certainly not always!) run a skeleton service.

I am really hopeful that other parents will come in with information about Jags etc, I am conscious I am sounding a bit like a broken record on the subject of Newstead and hope you get some other input.

You shouldn’t be choosing a school for your child based on Oxbridge offers. You should choose based on commute, ethos, if your child is likely to be happy there and affordability for you/whole family if you plan to pay.
Oxbridge offers go to very bright children who are very passionate about their subjects. All the schools you have on your list can support your child to get in, if they meet the relevant underlying Oxbridge criteria.
A friend’s daughter at Olaves (ex Newstead) has an Oxbridge offer this year. But she would have gotten it whether she went there, to Jags, Bromley High, Eltham or even Bullerswood (another local school). She was always that kind of child, obvious from an early age. And her parents supported her fully. I doubt the school has that much to do with it - she would have thrived in any reasonable school.

I’d be very, very careful about looking at stats alone. Stats only tell one very narrow story.

My DSs old school (he’s now at Uni) for example. A superselective state grammar - had 26 Oxbridge offers this year. This is everything to do with the students & parents and very little to do with the school. Depending on the type of student, the top 10% are well served and the remaining 90% just fodder. (Remembering that it’s the top 5% that are at that school to start with).

Be careful of just looking at Oxbridge stats. Look at the whole picture.

I'm not familiar with either school, although DD had a scholarship offer to JAGS and a place at Tiffin Girls so I've got a bit of a sense of what might be happening.

The choices girls make will be different for different schools. JAGS, I think, is more open to creative arts choices post 18. So you'll see girls going off to Art Schools and Conservatoires. This may be a reflection of the wealth of families - easier to contemplate a career without a clear financial return. You'll also see US destinations.

I've previously looked at Tiffin Boys destinations and been struck by the large numbers of vocational choices with clear 'professional' careers (Medicine, Dentistry, Pharmacy etc). This is quite different to the SW Independent school my DC went to.

If you dig around the websites I think you can find raw data on applications to Oxford and Cambridge by centre (school) and their success rate. I have found this in the past but can’t remember where now and not sure if it is still published.

Here's Cambridge 2021

https://www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/files/publications/undergraduateadmissionssbyapplyycentre20211_cycle.pdf

Thanks, this is very helpful. It seems many state schools have good offer rates!

The offer rate should really be around 1 in 3-3.5. When it is above or below that it is surprising.

Taking the 2021 stats these schools are worrying:

• Winchester College: 40 applied, 7 got in = 5.7
• (local high performing state coed sixth form 72 applied, 22 got in = 3.27)
• Jags: 16 applied, 3 got in = 5.33
• Dulwich College: 60 applied, 7 got in= 8.57!

Good to hear that things have normalised at Jags again.

Personally, I think Oxbridge should go school blind except in cases of real deprivation which should be dealt with separately. The way things are heading they will start treating grammars just like privates and given the huge amount of different schools in the UK that just isn’t going to work.

So I would not choose a school for an 11 year old based on Oxbridge statistics as it will all likely change again in the next 5-10 years.

My DS’s grammar has had a really high Oxbridge rate in the last few years. No idea what will happen in the future.

Also OP looking at the 2021 statistics, the Oxbridge rate for the high achieving independent co-ed schools was much better than for single sex.

So you see what you want to see in school statistics. To me the 2021 Oxbridge statistics say co-ed in the sixth form is better for Oxbridge (whether private or grammar). Thankfully most grammars are co-ed in the sixth form anyway.

Those are very good points and comparisons!
Newstead is about 3.4 and St Olave 2.7.
It will be interesting to see Oxford Uni data.
I think if a similar application, they prefer grammar to private, which makes sense. If you can achieve better with less favourable resources, you may have to work harder or brighter! The university is a more diversified environment and is not only driven by the fees.

It seems that grammar schools has not benifit from the recent trend at all.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/25/state-schools-local-authorities-oxbridge-admissions-double/

Over the same five-year period, the share of pupils at state-funded academies getting into Oxbridge increased from 1.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, grammar school Oxbridge entry rates have been stagnant, with 4.4 per cent going to the universities compared to 4.3 per cent five years earlier.