The thing is, I reckon some fee rises are going to happen regardless, at least at some schools. It's been well publicised how much energy bills are going up for state schools- I would imagine they will be going up equivalent amounts at many private schools. And they will be getting no government help to pay these bills.
Many state school teachers will also be getting a pay rise this year (more if the strikes are successful). IME, teachers won't take a pay cut to go private, so in some cases, private schools may have to pay more to attract staff (before anyone says it, I know some pay more anyway). As staff in some subjects (e.g. physics) become rarer and rarer, private schools will have to pay more to attract them, too.
Plus general inflation at 10.1% will be having an impact, especially after Covid, which has been difficult for some private schools.
Maybe fees won't go up 20%, but equally some larger private schools could absorb some of the VAT hit for parents too. But I'm expecting to see some private schools pushed over the edge anyway, this year + some parents having to make the difficult decision to withdraw their children (or deciding they can't afford it in the first place).
So if this is happening anyway (which I think it will), then the government getting some revenue to help out state schools is a better outcome, regardless.
People saying that parents will just buy up houses in the best catchment areas:
- Some schools do lottery admissions now, so this doesn't help.
- That doesn't help you get an in year place.
- There may not necessarily be houses available if people aren't selling.
There is a sense of entitlement on this thread that some people can just buy their way out of "poor" state schools. If that were changed, I do think the quality of education overall in this country will go up.