Predicting grades for A level students

[Hotdrysunny]

Wondering if anyone experienced with this can help - have been teaching a while but haven’t taught A level for a few years.

I have a student desperate for me to predict her an A but she isn’t really an A student.

How realistic are you in predicting grades?

I'd use their GCSE data and your data from what you have seen them do in exams etc. and be realistic. What would they get on their best day? That's how I would do it when I was teaching.

You have to be realistic or you are doing them a disservice and screwing yourself in the process when it comes your data.

We've just done a round of mocks for Year 12 so I've marked 2 full papers to get a grade, and will then look over the data for the year. This may elevate the grade if we see progress. I'm planning on a further set of mocks in October before the medicine/dentistry deadline using the live papers from this year to give a more accurate prediction, even if it just cements the earlier grades.

Thanks - problem is GCSE data is not very accurate due to having been in the 2021 cohort. Recent mock wasn’t very good.

You have to be realistic. Contrary to student (and parent) belief, a high predicted grade is not a gift that you choose whether or not to give to them. If you predict a grade she’ll never get, she’ll miss her offer at university and end up at an insurance choice that she never really wanted to go to. Predicted grades are earned. Has she ever achieved Grade B? If she’s a consistent B now, I’d predict A. If she’s an inconsistent A (and never A*), I’d predict A. If neither, no A for her.

Predict based on essays/ exams/ mocks throughout the year. Nothing else.

Its a shame she hasn’t reached an A grade but if nothing indicates that she is of that standard then you have to be honest.

‘At the moment…’ is always a good way of softening the blow.

Yes, I agree. And outline exactly under which circumstances you’d be willing to increase it. Students appear to be under the frustrating illusion that you predicting a grade means they’re going to get it 🤔

What did they achieve in the mock? Was it a paper base on what they have covered (so, like an AS Level of paper) or was it an actual mock A level?

If the former and they scraped a C then I would certainly not predict an A. If the latter and they got a strong B then I would look at a prediction of an A as they should improve.

Adduce data from work through the year to help support this.

Agree, over production helps no one. I speak from experience here. Otoh if a student on their best day could gain an A, then I think it's a reasonable prediction.

Aaargh over prediction helps no one obvs

I used end of year exams combined with in-class tests and quality of homework. Over prediction helps no one and can lead to difficult conversations with pupil and parents when pupil fails to secure grades.

give a realistic prediction as pupil can always go for Adjustment if higher grades are secured. I allow pupils an additional mock if they want in September.

@Hotdrysunny
Does your department/school not have a policy on this? Everyone could demand an A prediction! It must be evidence based and you surely follow policy. Otherwise it’s not fair to everyone else who has been fairly assessed is it? Does no one ask you for evidence based predictions to cross reference with other teachers grades?

I'm told that adjustment is not happening any more because so few people used it, that it became not worth it.

I think it's a pity for exactly the reason you have said-it gives that student who unexpectedly improves and performs on the day the chance to go for something they deserve but wouldn't have got on the predicted grade.

OP: If it was my dc what I would hope you'd do is give them a chance. Tell them that currently they will be predicted a B (or whatever). But give them a chance to improve it and tell them what you want to see. If they do a November mock, and get an A, you'll put it up then. Or if they show consistent improvement over the summer and a good test in September or something like that.
I wouldn't expect you to put it to an A if they clearly hadn't been working at that standard.

Former uni admissions tutor here. It really isn’t fair to accede to her pleas. Equally importantly, as PPs say, it does her no favours. Please hold the line!

But it would be very good to offer everyone the chance to improve their PGs in the Autumn and for her to specifically know that she has this option.

I'm a teacher. Our school has a policy; if a student argues that they should have a better prediction, we agree in writing what they have to do to get it; normally, achieve a certain mark in an extra test/mock at the start of Year 13. That could be different for different people chasing the same grade based on their performance in Year 12! It's worked very well and stops endless pestering.

Adjustment isn’t a thing anymore. The only option is to reject your place and go through clearing

Cambridge now use the term ‘reconsideration pool’.
Do any other Universities do similar?