London primary schools catchment areas

[ohmysense]

When a council publishes cut-off distances for admissions - do those already take into account waiting list movement that can take place between March and September?
E.g. let's say, for a popular inner London school the cut-off distance for the past couple of years was 0.2 miles. If someone lives 0.21 or 0.22 miles away do they have a reasonable chance to get off the waiting list prior to September?
This is a hypothetical, we are trying to assess our living situation & plans.

No, my guess is that they would be offer day distances. Also, be aware that waiting list places sometimes (quite often) go to children who live closer than the last distance, due to late applicants who move into the area after offer day very near to the school, or who fall into a higher admissions category. But if you're that close to the last distance, you might still have a reasonable chance.

It would normally be on offer day, or just after. For example, Harrow publish tables and explicitly say "as at 16 April 2020" for last year.

And your chances will entirely depend on how big the school is, how transient the local population and how likely some are to go private! In some areas being in the top 5 on the waiting list will get you in, in others no chance. I'm hearing appeals next week, for example, for a primary that has had no movement on their list at all since first allocations round.

I think it depends on the council

We are Wandsworth borough and they publish 2 distances
The first is the first round of offers, the second is the furthest distance at the start of term - ie how much movement there was in the waiting list

It’s quite common here for parents to apply for state and private schools and then turn down the state place, so there tends to be quite a lot of movement in the waiting lists, which might be why they publish both

Haringey publishes cut offs on offer day and then at some point following September they publish the second distance accounting for movement. In some years there is none though.