Will senior independent schools struggle with admissions?

[Jetset78]

Given the current recession and poor economic outlook, what are your thoughts on whether independent schools are going struggle getting sufficient pupil numbers?

So many parents, who run their own business or earn a decent salary, must be heavily impacted by the current situation. Do you think that the numbers of children in independence schools will significantly reduce over the next few years?

Will the big oversubscribed schools start loosening their admissions criteria to make up the numbers?

What about the traditional boarding schools like Wellington, Radley, Eton etc that heavily rely on overseas money to fill their boarding houses. What will they do to plug the numbers if the boarders don’t return?

Will it become a buyers market for parents?

Are you a journalist?

If not if you work in the independent school admissions sector you will know that school offices have been overwhelmed by demand from parents seeking private education for their dc. Many are moving from state to private because they need the wrap around care and continuity of education. If the parents work in a sector like medicine then job security isn't an issue.

Definitely not a journalist!

Just interested in views on what members think the impact will be.

Private school is a bit like housing in expensive areas. We like to believe that everyone funds their Iifestyle solely through active income (hence dependent on the economy) but for a lot of people, it's not usually that simple.

In north London at least, a lot of school fees are funded via grandparents and equity release (houses that were bought years ago). Covid wouldn't have affected grandparents help and if you have a lot of equity, you can probably still remortgage as the conditions affecting FTB wouldn't affect you. And lastly for those who fund primarily through income, professionals have the ability to work from home and many haven't lost their jobs.

I think demand has actually gone up and I agree with pp, re people not depending solely on recurring cash flow. We will pay for our children to to go to private school whether we are earning or not, through liquidating investments if need be.

"What about the traditional boarding schools like Wellington, Radley, Eton etc that heavily rely on overseas money to fill their boarding houses."

Just so you know, Eton don't rely on overseas money. For a start, it's School policy not to have more than 10% of overseas students at any one time so as to maintain its status as "a traditional English boarding school". Next, the school is 4 times oversubscribed annually; not to mention that it gives out circa £7 million in bursaries and scholarships every year (and increasing annually). The school also receives large amounts of donations from well-wishers and old boys alike together with incomes from investments, etc. Overseas money, therefore, is just "petty cash" as far as Eton is concerned.

We’ve just had to take our children out of their private junior school because our business has suffered because of Covid (travel). I would say though that we are quite unusual at the school at this current time and the waiting lists are longer than usual (parents not happy about the lack of learning provided from state schools during lockdown is the general reason given). However, I think it will be more interesting to see what happens next year particularly as the economy gets worse.

I work in one and our admissions aren’t down at all.

Jetset78 what is your personal view? Or you would not like to share so as not to pollute the responses? I am thinking J for journalist too, in case you wondered!

I have a friend who worked in one and their admissions are down. They specialised in foreign students and Brexit had screwed them anyway.

Stilllookingfor, I have no idea to be honest, which is why I was interested in perspectives and opinions from other parents.

Logic suggests to me that an economic downturn would lead to an adverse impact on fee paying schools, but I know, as a parent with kids in such a school, that the sector isn’t always logical!

I get that the lockdown has made some parents question the current learning provision in their school and lead them to perhaps consider a private education. I think however the huge financial commitment required will ultimately be off putting for many.

Unless you’re uber wealthy, I believe you need to have an unswerving belief in the private education system and the benefits it affords your children because that belief is tested when the fees email lands requesting thousands of pounds every term.

I also have friends who work in the sector and am aware of the increasing financial pressure on schools and this was pre-Covid. They say pupil numbers are king as it’s the main consistent source of income for a school.

This is what makes me question whether the forecasts of us facing the worst recession ever will impact the more selective schools and ultimately force them to review their admissions criteria to maintain pupil numbers and ensure they remain a viable commercial entity.

Demand has gone up. We have an influx this term.

We're contributing towards the demand. Planning on moving our DC back to the UK specifically for the private educate. We'd love a spot a Xmas but will wait until Sept 21.

Demand going up. Especially Y9 an Y10 entry - people worried about continuation of GCSE teaching if there are more lockdowns perhaps...

Every local indie has had an increase in demand. I'm not sure how it will affect boarding schools with large numbers of international students or schools that were already marginal.

Our local prep school have seen numbers rise as some of the local primary schools struggled during lockdown.
We live in a very affluent area and there are loads of people who could afford private but in the ordinary scheme of things prefer state.

However, the preps have, on the whole, seem to have coped much better than the state primaries.

Demand went up massively for all independent schools here - most state schools have done absolutely nothing since march, so parents are desperate.
in an area with engage state schools, things might be different

At my dcs school they have added a 4th class in Y7 for the first time so I would say not

We are full in year 7, taken a whole class on in Year 9, vacancies filled in years 10 and the biggest year 12 intake we have ever had. A couple of year 12 parents have actually paid for the two years up- front.

In the summer the school was worried about the numbers and now we have a waiting list for each year group. We are a small selective indie

Our prep school has been inundated with enquiries and new joiners. Main reason was Covid and the abysmal performance of state schools.