Ofqual's vanishing statement and the exam continuing farce.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Last night, just hours after setting out their exams appeal process, Ofqual withdrew their statement. You can't make it up.

The orginal statement outlined what they considered a valid mock to be, whether an actual exam or other timed, invigilated piece. It also stated that if the mock grade were higher than the CAG then the CAG would stand. Thus implying that CAGs were more valid than mocks.

Now it has been withdrawn and to be replaced with what??

Universities are in an impossible situation. All of them over offer, knowing that some students won't obtain their grades. They have numbers capped by the government. They also have finite accomodation and resources and in this covid world have to try and keep students as un crowded and apart as possible.

Oxford have released a statement www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-08-15-university-statement-2020-admissions

In the mean time, we have students lives, shattered by an algorithm, with no sign that anyone knows what they are doing. They can appeal their grades apparently, but no one yet knows what an appeal will look like. So they are stuck in limbo, with term approaching, not knowing where they will be living in a month or sos time.

It's a shit show that was obvious was coming.

I should probably have put this in education as it will affect GCSEs too. I'll ask mnhq.

It was always going to be a shit show but there was so much naivety, too many people cared more about this years results not being devalued rather than opening their eyes and realising the system was totally flawed and would not be fair.

I've seen so many Medic loose their places, so many DC miss their first choice Uni. Teens downgraded from A* to D!

There is a wonderful support group on Facebook if anyone is struggling please join...

Do you have the name of the support group for people Frazzled so they can find it?

Just shows who is calling the shots. I expect what happened was Ofqual put our statement, Cummings sees it , spots holes , yells Malcolm Tucker style at Ofqual who take it down . Meanwhile Dept of education aka Gavin Williamson are completely oblivious .

2020 Grading Issues Support Group

Thanks Op..

It is odd but before the Scottish Government did their U turn the appeal process was

1. you could appeal if your awarded grade was less than teacher assessed

2. you could not appeal if you believed your teacher had under-assessed you.

It’s really a horrendous mess and utterly unfair. DD made her Oxford offer but she’s in two tiny classes which weren’t subject to the algorithm. She knows she’s very lucky and has massive survivor guilt right now. It is much worse for many of her friends.

There seems to be a perfect storm that lead to this, even aside from the pandemic - Gove and Cummings changes in recent past to exams, an incompetent education secretary, a Tory crony head of Ofqual who is closer to Dept for Ed than is usual, and a government obsessed with the power of big data, without any wisdom regarding its limitations.

In the background there are groups of parents who foresaw the problems and were poised ready to brief media contacts and legal challenges. (Well done them.) Their numbers have swelled after results came out, including with Tory member grandparents, and will do so even more when GCSE’s are released.

Goodness knows what was happening with the swift removal of the appeal guidance. (I think I have screenshots if anyone wants to read it.) There were things in it that needed more explanation, but it could have just been updated or added to.
Does its removal imply they’re reverting to CAGs? Seems unlikely as it will cause a massive problem for universities. Then again, shifts the blame off the government, these cynical bastards might think, and avoid the huge expense and work of all the appeals. I think they expected that with the low birth year and universities being worried about international coming, many would accept their offer holders whatever. In fact it appears many want slightly lower numbers than usual to help stay Covid secure, particularly on science courses where lab space is in issue.

It's a disaster. I had no idea that in most cases it's the teacher ranking that counts and that the CAGs are not taken into account by the algorithms at all. Fucking scandalous!!

There are no words.

@AutumnLeavesSeptember

It's a disaster. I had no idea that in most cases it's the teacher ranking that counts and that the CAGs are not taken into account by the algorithms at all. Fucking scandalous!!

Yes those rankings. I remember when I first heard those were being asked for. Horrible for teachers to do and for those being ranked.

I have concerns about the CAGs too.

Some schools set CAGs same as UCAS;
Some schools set all CAGs at A and A*;
Some schools calculated CAGs which are completely different to teacher reports all year etc so student and parent completely flamaxed as to just why?

DfE and Ofqual are full of clever analysts... surely they must have spotted the flaws in their cunning plan. I wonder if they were put under political pressure to push it through?

Am not an expert but would imagine there is quite a high risk of a judicial review being successful, which would lead to the entire thing unravelling.

I think they thought they could easily write an algorithm that took account of ranking and CAGs, found it wasn’t so easy and fell back on ranking alone, only using CAGs where it was evident even to the meanest intelligence that those grades would be disproportionately affected.
Just like they thought developing a contact tracing app would be easy, making new trade deals would be easy goes on and on and on

@IrenetheQuaint

DfE and Ofqual are full of clever analysts... surely they must have spotted the flaws in their cunning plan. I wonder if they were put under political pressure to push it through?

Am not an expert but would imagine there is quite a high risk of a judicial review being successful, which would lead to the entire thing unravelling.

Are they? One would hope so but...

Yes, DfE and Ofqual run a very complex (arguably over-complex...) exam grading system pretty well IMO. Until now.

Oh yes, of course...should have thought. Though over complex possibly shows not so clever perhaps?

@Coffeeandbeans

I have concerns about the CAGs too.

Some schools set CAGs same as UCAS;
Some schools set all CAGs at A and A*;
Some schools calculated CAGs which are completely different to teacher reports all year etc so student and parent completely flamaxed as to just why?

I know of a student who has been predicted Bs throughout. No exam or course work grade lower than a B, predicted grades supplied as Bs - got three Es when results came out. Requested CAG scores from college - D D E. How come and based on what?

They've got no idea whether they can appeal. Even if mocks are validated based on the Ofqual statement (before it was removed) the CAG scores will over rule mocks anyway. So a student consistently getting Bs throughout, including in all exams, will be capped at D D E based on out of the blue teacher assessment with no explanation?

Thank you @mnhq for moving the thread :)

You can see that ofqual knew some of the impact that their algorithm would have from their very long and slightly incomprehensible document .

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf

Apart from the minor details of Brexit and the COVID/Care home response, I really think this is the absolute worst thing that this government has done.

They had months to figure out a proper system for this and yet they still cock something so important up so badly. It's an absolute disgrace and it doesn't appear that anybody who can actually do anything has much of a clue how to fix it.

Ugh, just when I wondered how this could be mismanaged any worse.

Helpful thread, thanks so much. I am
Embarrassed to have to ask: what are CAGs?

CAGs are Centre Assessed Grades. Which I understand are the grades the teachers gave.

@LizzieMacQueen

CAGs are Centre Assessed Grades. Which I understand are the grades the teachers gave.

Thank you!

On the radio yesterday a headteacher was pointing out the real problem lies with those schools that MASSIVELY over estimated - if all schools had tried to be honest, it is far more likely the CAG would stand. Are there going to be any consequences for those schools who flagrantly upgraded?

Thanks for this OYBBK. DS1 thinks form his mocks he would have got A*AB, he got AAA.

He is reluctant to ask for his CAG as he thinks he will feel worse if he was marked up in one, rather than marked down in one

It's all a nightmare, and I have a DD getting GCSE results on Thursday.