GCSE) A Level results

[Newname4now]

Just seen a petition online referring to the upcoming results. States that gov have introduced a 33% reduction allowance on top of whatever formulae is being used.
Can anyone shed any light?
Are we to expect seriously harsh marking/lower results??

33% is massive!

I think that is overstated.

But yes, initial predictions are that the extent of grade inflation based on initial collation is significant and marks will be to be moderated downwards.

But there's AFAIK no single figure for this.

They will be looking at schools predictions v their attainment in recent years they might also sample evidence from every school (not necessarily every subject) to get a feel of whether the school has upped the marks wildly, considerably or just a little bit.

It's all a bit smoke and mirrors really. Because these was no known pattern for what evidence would be considered to be good quality, nor are people totally certain on how moderation will pan out (though word is creeping round)

Have you got a link?
I haven't seen anything about 33%

Grade boundaries change every year, to prevent grade inflation. Surely this year will be the same, even without the exams, so there are not too many of each grade awarded?

www.change.org/p/boris-johnson-stop-the-33-downgrade-of-2020-a-level-and-gcse-results?recruiter=false&recruited_by_id=6abdd880-b6f9-11ea-8cc9-414e620671e6

Thanks for the link although having to read it there's no indication as to where the % came from. I can't see it in the guidance nor the consultation docs from Ofqual

That petition irritates me. Doesn't explain where the 33% comes from. I told someone on Facebook that they were scaremongering by sharing it. It's hugely irresponsible to worry people without evidence.

Information seems to have come from here
inews.co.uk/news/education/gcse-a-level-exams-2020-millions-proposed-grades-cut-generous-predictions-england-450236

That article implies that teachers have over inflated grades....the model will adjust back to grades which are inline with expected performance (a bit like raising and lowering grade boundaries that the exam board has always done).

@bpisok is right. The grades will be adjusted to match the historical average. The figure of a third comes from a data gathering exercise where centres shared their initial estimated grades with an educational think tank to sense check them. The grades they actually submitted may well have been readjusted with the insight gained. Even if not it's just not helpful to look at teacher assessed grades as 'right' and any grade given subsequently by the exam board as a change from the true grade.

we don’t know if schools will have submitted the same data to the exam boards as that which we’re analysing here. They may have used the reports they were provided with to amend the mix of grades they were proposing.

That's a pretty significant caveat to the report....

Some of my local secondary schools routinely inflate A level predictions every year (with sometimes disastrous consequences when the students miss by a mile). They will have done the same this year, and now need to explain to the students that they might have predicted 3 A*s but they are going to give them C, D and E instead as their predictions are worth jack shit.

Some of my local secondary schools routinely inflate A level predictions every year

Given that only 17% of A level predictions are correct it's hardly unique to your local school!

Don't forget predictions are made at the beginning of year 13/end year 12, not at the end of year 13.

And I can't work out from those reports where the 33% comes from either.

For my part I just want to be sure DC are as best prepared as possible for whatever grades they get. It has been a tough time all round but think in general children and young people have had a really difficult few months and emotional resilience may be at a low ebb.

Don't forget predictions are made at the beginning of year 13/end year 12, not at the end of year 13.

Er, yes, I think we know that.

sandybayley

The grades will be adjusted to match the historical average.

Historical average of what?
The year?
School?
Subject?
National?

My subject only has one year of history under the new exams.

Will anything before that be taken in to consideration, the only answer that anyone seems to have is 'Fuck knows'.

Not a dig at you. just a rant in general.

@FrippEnos - a mix of all. If only one year of results available then other data will be taken into account. I think it's largely fair that both my DS1 (A Levels) and DD (GCSE) will get results in line with what has been achieved in their respective schools previously - and that their schools will get results broadly in line with what they've achieved relative to other schools,

You could argue that this years method of allocating grades is 'fairer' than sitting exams. No duff papers, no bad days.

sandybayley

I think that it has the potential to be much fairer.

But it would still need to be monitored

@FrippEnos - of course. And even with an approach which is broadly fair to the majority there will be individuals who are unhappy. But that's the case when most things in life.

I didn't sign the petition as couldn't see enough evidence to show where the 33% was coming from. My DS should be doing GCSES this year and will be very affected by any downgrading as he's borderline for quite a few subjects.

Just have to hope the system is fair for them as it's a totally shit situation for young people to be in. I really hope the very mention of being in the 'class of 2020' means that any future employers are considerate.

There is unfortunately no 'fair' in any system. As well as submitting grades, schools listed rank order so all those that were predicted a b for example would be ranked within that b.
If a school over the last three years averaged got 40% b then that applies this year. It will inevitably mean some people will get less or more than they would have done if they sat the exam but you will never know that. I do expect a floodgate of litigious parents to insist on (Freedom of info?) seeing the tank order their child got in the grade prediction and to insist on knowing precisely how that was determined 😕

UmbrellaHat

I suspect those that would be litigious are those that think that there child could do no wrong.

Just posted a thread about this myself it's quite concerning to me.

We've been discussing thus on our threads GCSE's 2020 in secondary section.

Most other posters think it's bullshit. Scaremongering.

Another poster asked:

What evidence is this linked to please?

Is it referring to some recent research of an education think tank which invited schools to submit their initial assessed grades and found (in their opinion) some of grades were over inflated.

Which actually is a totally different thing.

I've been told that this petition is nonsense and just scaremongering.

I think that's true.