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PISA results come out in a few days. Predictions, anyone?

17 replies

Kokeshi123 · 01/12/2019 13:02

Like many people, I'll be looking at the new PISA results with interest. Thought it might be fun to come out with some ideas about how the different countries' results will look, and then we can see how accurate (or hopelessly wrong!) we were.

My predictions:

Scotland and Wales will be flat or very slightly declining across all areas.
England will see a slight uptake, because the first cohorts of kids who experienced better phonics instruction will have begun aging up into the PISA age group.
Finland will be flat or very slightly declining.
The other Nordic countries such as Sweden will be flat or show a gentle improvement.
Some of the Eastern European countries will be on a rising trend.
The United States will be slightly worse than previous years.
Canada most likely will be flat or slightly declining.
Shanghai, who the heck knows (and why does a city that is highly UNrepresentative of China as a whole, get to compete as if it were a country, in any case?)
Japan will do slightly better than previous years.
Singapore, S. Korea, Hong Kong will continue to do very well, without any particular changes.

Anyone else?

OP posts:
Kokeshi123 · 01/12/2019 13:03

upTICK, not uptake!

OP posts:
JoJoSM2 · 02/12/2019 19:06

Good to know it’s coming out soon. No predictions but it’ll be interesting to see.

Kokeshi123 · 03/12/2019 00:17

Oh, and I think Oz and NZ will probably do less well than before.

I'm only going to predict "across time" trends, not "country to country" trends, as I think comparing one country to another is largely a waste of time and also very unfair--city states can't be compared with large diverse countries, countries with a lot of tutoring and shadow education can't be compared with countries that don't do this, and so on. But looking at the way countries go up and down over time can be informative, I think.

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simonisnotme · 03/12/2019 16:14

here you go OP
overall I think we are up a bit , whatever PISA results are (aka never heard of them till now)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50563833

fallfallfall · 03/12/2019 16:19

Oh wow, I didn’t expect Canada to have done that well...

electricwhisk · 03/12/2019 18:57

Don’t understand why China is judged only on performance in a handful of wealthy provinces. Makes a mockery of the whole thing.

happygardening · 03/12/2019 18:58

We have friends who amongst other places live in Singapore (they're Singaporean citizens) they don't speak at all highly of the education offered there and send their DC's to be privately educated in the UK because they think it offers a broader and better education. Their DC's have stayed with us they also don't like the education offered in Singapore it's very competitive and there's a lot of home tutoring going on.

Pipstelle · 03/12/2019 19:24

The happiness question results for the UK are fairly worrying

Mummy0ftwo12 · 03/12/2019 20:43

I found it interesting that Estonia did so well and yet they don't start until 7, preferring to concentrate on nursery/play based stuff before that getting the children socially ready for school and they also don't differentiate by ability.

Piggywaspushed · 03/12/2019 20:45

Quite a lot of your predictions were wrong OP!

Kokeshi123 · 03/12/2019 23:10

I know--just shows how hard it is to predict this kind of stuff!

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Kokeshi123 · 03/12/2019 23:59

I found it interesting that Estonia did so well and yet they don't start until 7, preferring to concentrate on nursery/play based stuff before that getting the children socially ready for school and they also don't differentiate by ability.

The age of starting what is technically described as "school" may be seven years old, but Estonian kindergartens appear to be actively teaching the kids--either that, or Estonia is the kinds of country where you can rely on parents to consistently teach stuff at home. Take a look at this English translation of the academic expectations required for kids to graduate kindergarten:

www.hm.ee/sites/default/files/estonian_national_curriculum_for_preschool_child_care_institutions.pdf

This is an example of the content that Estonian kids are supposed to have acquired as a minimum when graduating kindergarten:
"8) pronounces correctly all the sounds of his or her mother tongue in his or her speech and while repeating the dictated words;
9) knows the letters and spells 1-2-syllable words, recognises some words in spelling;
10) writes 1-2-syllable words correctly in single successive capital letters in the right order; 11) knows poems and songs in his or her mother tongue by heart."

Bear in mind that children have to have completed stuff like the above as a minimum in order to graduate kindergarten and move onto first grade, because Estonia does not do "social promotion" and children can only graduate to the next grade in school if they are considered sufficiently accomplished and have mastered the material they are supposed to have. And that also has to be taken into account when talking about the mixed-ability teaching, by the way--it is a lot easier to teach everyone at one level, when you have ensured a certain level of homogeneity because slow learners get "held back."

Be very wary of "magic country where kids don't learn to read till they are seven!!" With the exception of Denmark, these are all countries which have highly transparent writing systems (i.e., there is a super easy one-letter-to-one-sound rule and only one way of spelling each sound, so learning to read and write is a doddle). In countries like these, children "pick up" reading and writing before school, simply by sharing picture books with parents, getting a few pointers from parents, watching other children, and reading the subtitles on the telly and filling in the gaps themselves. The few that can't read on starting school will find it easy to catch up in a few months, and teachers have lots of time and and attention to give to them because the other kids are reading already. The whole class is then ready, at age 7, to start reading textbooks, writing reports, doing word problems in maths etc. Finland is one such country--Estonia is another, because they undertook spelling reform in the 17th century and have this lovely logical spelling system. Italy, ditto (Italy's education outcomes are a bit rubbish, though).

Denmark is the only country I know of that has a crummy, awkward spelling system (like English but not quite as awful) and still decides to delay teaching reading until 7. Sadly, the delay doesn't turn Danish kids into magic Finnish/Estonian kids--it just means that they are still awkwardly stumbling through their reading until a relatively late age.

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Kokeshi123 · 04/12/2019 00:00

Anyway, enough of that. Good to see Ireland doing so well. I always find it odd that English people don't talk much about the Irish system--geographically close, and (predominantly) Anglophone.

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Piggywaspushed · 04/12/2019 07:00

We don't talk about nay systems in education that aren't culturally distant and don't drill students and that cost money, or require a sea change , I find.

That's why Shanghai maths appealed : cheap, large class sizes, drilling (ignoring all the stuff like parental attitudes etc etc). We also never look at the Canadian system.

Have you read Cleverlands, OP? Very interesting read.

One of the main differences between all these countries is training of teachers . Also, continued development, qualifications and attitudes in the wider public to school, education, learning, and teachers.

Namenic · 04/12/2019 07:20

Would it be sensible for kids to be able to stay back if they wish - a bit like summer-born kids/kids in Estonia so they can be better prepared for different stages?

I guess the harder thing would be them fitting into sports teams and Being separated from friends. It is hard for everyone to be on some education conveyor belt where you cannot take more time at a given stage - whether that be reading,maths, whatever.

Kokeshi123 · 04/12/2019 09:25

Tricky. I have heard that the actual research that has been conducted on the subject, does not support "holding back"then again, I suspect that the same is true for differentiation. I think there is no doubt that being held back is humiliating for childrenbut again, children who are on the bottom "table" probably feel humiliated as well--even if it's not called the bottom table, they know what it is. There is probably no perfect solution to the question of how to group children into classes.....

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fallfallfall · 04/12/2019 17:17

Canadian school sports; during the years in elementary school, inter school sports are played between classes, regardless of birthdays. Once in high school your PE class is a block as it’s a class, any school sport (volleyball basketball etc.) is out of class by strict age and catchment cut off.
High School subjects are also by block and if your schedule permits you can move ahead. Many grade 11 students finish 1/2 year early. By taking extra classes in their spare block.

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