"babies born in summer 20% less likely to attend university". Higher Ed Funding Council for England

[miljee]

I cannot remember whether it was here on 'education' or on 'primary' that I made the remark that I'd read somewhere months ago that something like 80% of Oxbridge Entrants are Sept-Dec born, thus supporting the idea that place in a school year DOES influence outcome. Someone (who didn't believe me!) asked for the long gone link but this is something I saw in the paper today. I admit it was The Sun but it goes on to say "The council says students who are very young for their school year tend not to catch up". The email is [email protected] if you want to verify this!

I'm not really banging a drum, here, just pointing out that my Oxbridge remark was probably quite accurate!

My dd is an October baby, but have been wondering whether starting reception early (skip ahead a year) might be a good thing for her .... ds is 2 years older but August born so will be youngest in his group, will it be better for dd to stay 2 years (instead of 3 years) behind him in schooling/development etc, she is very confident, sociable, plus is and will always be very very tall for her age (all the family are).

She is only 21 months, so just thinking about it as a possiblity, will wait and see how things go, but would be interested if anyone has thoughts on this, realise it goes against most of the previous discussion...

I expect it is different for boys and girls ie late boys might be better being kept down and early girls going up, however I was the second youngest in my year, the youngest was an October girl we tended to gravitiate together partly beacuse of our relative immaturity and in sixth form/uni she had a bit of a hard time I think. However you've got a while to decide I guess just think a bit about why you want to move her up. As per my prev. post can parents 'move up' their children at state schools?

Yes, agree that more likely to think about it for a girl. And I suppose the thing about starting early is that you could have the option to repeat a year if things dont work out (although wouldnt want to wait too far down the line).

I am not sure how easy it is to change year group in either state or private system, will have to investigate if its something that we will consider for dd. I suppose the main reasons would be wanting to keep the 2 year age gap with her brother, and the feeling that she will quite confident and mature and tall. But of course would not want to push her into an early start if not good for her or anything like that.

you can't start children a year early at school
why would you want to do that?

let the teachers do their jobs and recognise and G&T students as they start
she's a bit young to be thinking about this tbh

miljee, I don't believe that being one of the 20% myself negates or nullifies the statistics, and I didn't say that. I don't think anyone else did either. There were a few "I did it, so there's hope" postings, mine included.

Are birthdays in the general population spread evenly over the year? It would be useful to know that. I suspect (but do not know) that there might be a Christmas-related September peak - does anyone have the stats to hand?

I went to school in Australia, and I was always one of the youngest in the year, and I HATED it.

I did make it to university though, and what was the worst thing was that I wasn't 18 till my second year of uni!

I have one born in May, and another in November. By the time DS1 is in school I hope we'll be back in Oz, but he will be one of the youngest there (the birthday year runs from July to June) and even though at the moment he is showing he is quite bright, I wouldn't hesitate to hold him back if he avoided what I went through being one of the youngest!

Don't know if this has been said but in Scotland children don't start till 5 anyway so doesn't apply. Also degrees are 4 years rather than 3 and entry criteria is different.

Changeover time here is end Feb, ie those 5 after end feb go the following summer and those younger wait a whole year so the child is at least 4 1/2 years old when starting school to a max of 5 1/2.

Hallgerda, birthdays are not uniformly spread through the year, but I don't have the details as to when the peaks are. If I remember correctly they are not huge, so to assume uniformity is a good first approximation (but not when you are producing these sort of statistics).

1dilemma, many (not all) private schools are flexible and will have a few children outside their 'official' year groups in both directions.

Conversely, according to a friend who works with rehabilitating young offenders, they are disproportionately likely to have Summer birthdays.

I agree with you Miljee. I hate the way a typical Mumsnet response to the findings of research might be, 'Oh well, that's not my experience so it must be bollocks' on this and other threads. As you say, there's nothing wrong with saying, 'that's not my experience and let's remember the exceptions' and there's nothing wrong with questioning the research by pointing out weaknesses if you have a particular expertise or knowledge in this area. But using personal experience or even the experience of your best mate, your school, your street, your town to argue against statistical evidence is really irritating and gets in the way of rational debate.

if its for Oxbrdge entrants all it means is that posh rich parents have sex more between jan & march

This is a thread I really didn't want to see My DS will be 4 in August and because we are moving to England will go to reception in September. If we waited here in Scotland he wouldn't go to school until August 2008. He is a confident little boy and fairly bright I think. I just hope he will be ok.

The top local private school told us that they rarely take children born after Christmas unless they already have older siblings at the school. So are the supposedly best schools taking more of the older children, which would exagerate this even more?

always amazes me that people fail to accept statistically proven evidence just because they have anecdotes about auntie so-and-so who blah-de-blah

it doesn't mean everyone born in the summer is doomed not to do well in the education system - just that they are less likely to do so

which cannot be disproven by auntie so-and-so

[bemused]

i for one am interested in this - not at least because ds2 is due imminently...

In case anyone is interested, www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html shows birthday distribution through the year (graph showing distribution by month is near the bottom). There are more people born per day in July-October and fewer from March-May.

Schneebly, why don't you keep him down till next September?

ps my last post is not to say that i accept all statistical research as accurate, but more to say that people rejecting it because it doesn't fit with their own personal findings - of a handful of people - is frustrating

AG, if she did he would have to start in Y1 and miss Reception altogether - and that's if he even still had a place - when a school is popular, if you don't take up your place in the Sept when the child is 4, they will usually give it to someone else.

The system is far too rigid

should have said the statistics page is for US birthdays, but news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/1186636.stm suggests the pattern is similar in UK. (Why am I so fascinated by statistics??)

AngharadGoldenhand - because then he would miss reception and go straight into year one which I feel would be too much of a jump for him.

I remember some detailed research on this (DS1 is 30 August, DS2 5 Sept so very interested!). And the more detailed analysis showed that there were differences in how likely the kids were to achieve GCSEs, but after that, the differences disappeared. So summer babies did less well in GCSEs (statistically), but those who did get enough GCSEs to go to to A levels (are they still called that? ) summer babies did as well as all other birthdays.

And Miljee, it's certainly not valid to infer that it is the "place in school year" that influences outcome. Maybe educated middle class parents, whose kids are likely to be supported well and encourged at home, are more likely to avoid summer birthdays? I certainly know a couple of my peers who were went out of their way to ensure babies were due/born after 1 Sept. There's a lot of info we are lacking with headlines like these.

Well, if you only have to send your child to school in the term when they're rising 5, then surely he could go the next September?
As there is no school term in which he'll be 5.

Might be worth discussing it with school/local authority?

But Allbuggied that just tallies with the research. If summer babies are likely to do less well all through school and this is reflected in their GCSE results they are less likely to take A Levels and less likely to go to university. Which just proves that a summer birthday CAN be (not automatically is) a life long disadvantage in terms of academic success and sicne whether you go to university or not has a significant impact on income (and on your children's 'readiness for school' at aged 3) on your career propsects, income and even on your own kids.

AngharadGoldenhand - I believe they are unmovable on this.

I am not totally against him starting school per se - I am just a bit sad about it I think and he just seems so young still.