School admissions HELP!

[brightsunnyday]

We're about to exchange on a house. We want to do so before January so we can apply for my son's reception place. We're moving to a new area (50 miles away) to be near family and near a good school. But I am REALLY nervous about whether we'll get into the school. The admissions area has shrunk to 530 metres and our house (according to our calculations) is 350 metres away. I thought it'd be fine, but further (last minute) research has found that the previous year it was 800 metres away and the year before that 900 metres. This huge shrinkage really worries me. It's a 3 form entry school - 90 pupils a year. And last year 35 places went to siblings. So 55 places left. The next nearest school is a bit of a drive away and not very good.

We're seriously thinking of pulling out and renting a little place close to the school for a year or so.

Anyone else been in this situation? Anyone with experience of catchment areas know if the number of siblings this year sounds unusual or what pattern it might follow in future years? Anyone with a crystal ball who can tell me if we will get in?! Argghh.

I realise how potty and middle class pointy elbows this sounds. I hate myself!

No one with a crystal ball around?

The honest truth is that things change from year to year as to how many siblings there are applying for a place. 35 out of 90 I would suggest is not uncommon but this next year could be one of those year groups where it is 20 siblings or 50 siblings.

The number of siblings dictates how many places are available for other applicants and so this will change with the number of siblings applying. Obviously the distance is reducing but from your figures it is not clear whether this is due to increasing numbers of siblings or whether it is due to more new housing near the school, with peole moving into the area.

One other point that you need to be aware of, is that the figures you have are for the initial allocation of places to the school in April and do not include any of the changes after that date when parents turn down places. In many schools that can be quite a few places and this will increase the biggest distance of entry by quite a bit.

Renting a place nearer to the school will invariably lead to questions about whether you are doing this solely for the purpose of getting into the school. In reality that is exactly what you are proposing to do. Some LAs will take the view that you are trying to bend the system and therefore not allow you to use the rented accommodation address for the purposes of admission, especially if they become aware that you have made an offer and then turned down another house move further away from the school.

There is no absolute in this but you have found a house that you are happy with 350 metres from the school and the current distance for admission is 530 metres then that seems to me to be a reasonable bet that you will get the offer of a place. It is always going to be a risk but my feeling would be to make the move to the house you are about to exchange on. But at the end of the day it is your decision

I reckon 1/3 siblings sounds about normal.

Have any big new housing development been built in the area lately, that might change things? And/or has this school recently improved/have others got worse?
I reckon you've got a generous amount of leeway, and that it's worth the risk. Not everyone takes up offered places, so even if you didn't get in on offer day, you'd have a good chance of something coming up.

The LA can't turn down a rented place IF it's your only home (that rule is for home owners who rent to bend the rules)

There's no hard or fast solution!

Thanks for the advice. Can't believe this is so stressful.

The school has been outstanding since 2013 but has announced fairly recently that it's becoming an all through school to 16. Think that must be why

School applications are a lottery from parents' point of view. Choice is an illusion. You apply where you think you can get in but you don't really know what your chances are.
The circumstances you describe give you good odds of getting in. Personally, I would go ahead with your house purchase.
If the very worst happens against the odds, get on the waiting list. There is a lot of movement in schools

I just don't think I can handle the stress of it. And there isn't really a decent option if we don't get in. The other nearest schools all have that small catchments which we'd be outside of. Think the council would give us a place a bit of a way away in a pretty poor school. I'd feel terrible if that happened.

Think we may have to walk away from this house and rent. I'm absolutely gutted.

Could there be more than 55 reception age children within 350m of this school?

350m is not very big..

I would buy the house on those distances, OP.

I just don't know. It's an area with a lot Victorian terraces so they're are a lot of people.

If you didn't get in, you'd be close to the top of waiting lists. It's 3-form entry, I would think your chances are very good.

How much property comes up for rent closer to the school?

Not that much. There are two houses for rent at the moment. One of which we're going to make an appt to see tomorrow.

How much closer are they?

TBH, 350m is close in real terms. I would be happy with that - you're clearly really anxious about it though, and I understand that too, but you need to weigh the financial odds of moving twice (rent deposit, removal/storage costs etc), possibly finding a less desirable house etc., against the small chance that the catchment will shrink by another third from last year's figure.

If there was so much pressure on the local schools then others would also be in your situation and the council may force one of the closer schools to take a bulge class etc.

Everything school-related is a risk, but I'd definitely chance this one.

I would go ahead with the house. Here's a mathsy point to support a bit of optimism: The area of a circle with radius 0.35 is less than half of that of a circle with radius 0.53 (because the radius is squared). So the house is in the "nearest half" of the most recent catchment.

I would also check:
(1) if the numbers you are looking at are March (first allocation) or September (when it will be a bit wider)
(2) method of measurement - is your 350m measured in the same way the catchment is? (Shortest walk vs. Straight line etc)

Nosquirrels - the one we're seeing tomorrow is on the next road to the school. About 100m away.

NW - thank you. I don't really understand it, but that has made me feel more optimistic. We are definitely measuring the distance correctly. We've spent ages looking at maps and local authority rules.

I don't know how to get the sept allocation. I'll call the council. They love me there, I can tell you!

Obviously anything could happen but here's a positive story for you:

We live 620m from our first choice school. I'd been keeping an eye on the admissions distances for years before we applied, it had always been around 1000m, then 2 yrs before our year it dropped to 580m then 420m the following year. I gave up any hope of getting in but still put it down as first choice on the off chance and was amazed when we got a place as the distance had increased again to 800m!

Anyway my point is they do grow as well as shrink and sometimes a high intake of siblings a year or two before can help you as less 'first children' got in those years so less subsequent siblings for your year. (Obviously some people have lots of children but it's same to assume the majority have 2 or 3 a few years apart!)

I think based on the info you've given I'd go ahead with the purchase if it's 350m, especially for a 90 intake as more chance of people leaving but I can see how nerve racking it is for you!

The school might know how many siblings they're expecting next year. Ours did. Also if you're in london I wouldn't worry with those distances for initial allocations. You will be in by September either way.

Unicorn - thanks. That does make me feel better.

Re siblings - I got some info from the council. In 2015 - there were 26 siblings, in 2016 - 30 siblings and 2017, 36 siblings. The admissions guy thought it'd keep going up, but that doesn't sound right to me.

NW - is there some whizzy maths I should apply to this?

I'd definitely buy the house on those odds. As people have said, that will be the initial allocation and it will def have a bigger distance once final places had been allocated. I'd say very good odds especially it being a 3 form entry school.

OP, perhaps take a map and draw a 0.35km circle around the school, and take new confidence for every cluster of flats that is a bit further away from the school than your future house (say, a high rise or council estate that might have lots of kids at 0.42km).

Buying a house is really stressful - try to keep calm and carry on. (And if the exchange falls through, which happens, remain calm as you still have time to rent, as a back-up). Don't let weak nerves wreck what seems to be a good plan!