Expected levels ks1 ks2 what then expected for gcse?

[madasamarchhare]

Slightly random question but this has got me thinking. We know there is lots of talk especially at the moment that children are expected to achieve a level 2 in ks1 and assuming progress is linear and expected should achieve a level 4 at the end of ks2. For these children what expectations are on them as they finish secondary school in terms of gcse? Would they be expected to achieve grades a-c?

I don't see how you can possibly know. e. g. DS1 was in the lower maths group all through primary and started secondary in the third set- within 6 months he was in the top set.
In general then yes they would- they are at the expected level and the expected level at GCSE is grade C and above.
It is why I am against 11+ you can't tell- they may be all A* later.

Considering the A*-G system will be scrapped by the time current 13 year olds sit their GCSE's I'm not sure it really matters for a 6 year old...

You can keep with the old system to get an idea of likely outcome.
There are threads on here that roughly link, for instance, KS2 results & expected GCSEs.
But keep in mind they aren't robots, they develop in plateaus and leaps. Progress is only (somewhat) consistently linear for groups, not for most individuals.
I imagine solid L4 at KS2 would be targetted to get Bs&Cs at GCSE. Plenty of those will over- or under-perform, though.

I'm sure there was a news report recently that was saying that children with a level 5 at KS2 (so 3 at KS1) were supposed to get a B at GCSE, only lots were failing to achieve that.

Ah found it, it actually says fail to get an A, but shows statistics of how many get a B
www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22873257

link

Yep Level 5 in Year 6 is 'supposed' to correlate to an A. It actually might if the only ones to come up to Year 7 with a Level 5 were the ones actually working at Level 5