AS grades predicting A level grades

[LondonMilly]

My daughter did brilliantly to get 4 As at AS. However her school has just told her they will predict A at A level not A which is what she was hoping for. Apparently they predicted A last year for quite a few pupils who didn't achieve them. My daughter is upset and wants me to talk to the school - does anyone know more about how they make these decisions?
thanks

Pity the Oxford College whose admissions tutor is daft enough to take her then. There are many students I have had who have been rejected by Oxford ( Oxford particularly) who would have made them wonderful students I fear about this one. I can seriously see some naive tutor in Oxbridge offering her a place! She is very plausible.

Presumably titchy they do their jobs on my reference? What I dont say cant affect them though can it?

jabed, it really doesn't sound as if her academic record is 'out there' enough for Oxford in any case. She will be judged on her entrance test too (for most subjects). Your reference is also going to 4 other establishments too not just Oxford, titchy's bland suggestion is probably about right.

Look on the bright side: if she's not applying for your subject then at least you don't have to coach her for interview.

Your reference (and her other teachers'), her personal statement, her GCSEs, her AS results, her predicted grades, her interview, maybe an aptitude test.

You are coming across as knowing far better than the average (is there such as thing at Oxford?) Oxbridge admissions tutor. Really they have FAR more experience in deciding which applicants will do well with them than you do. Don't be so arrogant.

I'm sure you wouldn't appreaciate a child's GCSE tutor telling you a child wasn't going to do very well at A Level, despite having an A* GCSE and you having interviewed them.

titchy - I have had teachers say that about my DS. I did something about it.

I am annoyed in this case because I am being pressured. I would rather say nothing. She got an A*. Let that be the fact. I would rather my colleagues had to comment on her. She had to be bullied. I cant tell them that.

Just like parents want to pressure teachers to predict A* when it may not happen.

Thanks sebua, that is a blessing. She is no longer at school though. She left in the summer - and she " failed" with those grades. She was planning on making an application with grades in hand and of course it hasnt happened. So now we are all to blame for her failures.

Hmmm, reading this thread with interest and I would like to ask a question.
DS now in final year of A levels, last year due to illness and various other distractions was predicted D in Physics, but got at AS high A grade, gross miscalculation or what?
This year school predicted B in Physics, based on AS result which was A, Why?
Maths he was predicted B, he got an A and Chemistry was spot on.
Why would he be predicted lower grades?
Do tutors sometimes predict lower grades to get DCs to start putting in more effort?

Why would he be predicted lower grades?
Do tutors sometimes predict lower grades to get DCs to start putting in more effort?

It possibly depends on the school and some teachersmay draw breath at what I say. Thats wont be because itsnot truekust that they dont want you to know.

The problem is targets. Not your DC's but mine (as a teacher). I have to predict according to something (in my case) called ALIS. I have performance targets to meet. If I am not within ALIS my school will put me on the carpet to explain. In ALIS I have a one grade leeway either side of my prediction where I can still be "safe".

If a student has an ALIS prediction of A/B (it can be a cusp area) even though they may have an A at AS I am likely to play safe and predict a B. You see I will not be questioned if a student gets about the ALIS prediction, I will not be questioned if they fall below it and I made my predictions there. I will be questioned if they fall below below my prediction and ALIS.

For safety purposes it is better therefore to predict a B ( even when student has an A at AS) because it gives me room. Targets are a B*gger in teaching - especially in very good schools and ( worse) in very bad ones.

The bottom line is that AS grades can predict within a grade of the final outcome. It will either be the same, one grade up or one below. Sometimes you may well know that it could be two below and so you make a prediction which will put you within range.

So your DC gets a B prediction off a AS grade A because his teacher probably feels that is reasonable. DC may well get an A ( or even an A* but DC may also be one of those who will drop to a C at A" and screw the ranges and make a B!

Please, stop asking for what is not realisitic. I know that sounds harsh but I ( and peoplelike me) are walking a fine line between having to be nice to you and knowing the liklihoods. We dont tell you because we dont want a self fulfilling prophesy. The " Oh I am a B student" syndrome and therefore thats what they achieve. When they may well be a cusp student -likely to get a B but might get an A

OK so if your DC does well, praise them, they will have done better than the predictions and papers we have that you are not supposed to know about.

I am on holiday now and Iam not in the mood for pulling punches on this thing. Time parents knew anyway by general principle.

Jabbed very interesting to hear from a teachers perspective

I think one way this system fails the students is that unis are looking at these predictions in making offers, and some unis now have a centralised admissions process where students are graded depending on their GCSE marks and A2 predicted grades. In this situation, it would be extremely difficult to gt an offer if you are predicted B when the uni requires an A, even with a brilliant PS as your application could well be rejected before a subject admissions tutor ever sees it.

I do not think that Jabed is giving a general teacher's perspective.

I also have to explain my results but would not lower a predicted grade to play safe.

Well I phoned the school today and made an appointment to see Head of 6th form, it appears to be no real explanation for DS's lower predicted grades for this year, and when I made the parallel between situation of last year( Physics predicted grade D, actual grade achieved by DS A) there was a pause and meek explanation given along the line of: He did surprised us all it does not happens that often.
Anyhow I will see the Head next week and talk this through with her in more detail, I am not happy nor am I ready to except this as a "Holy Grail", after all they got it so wrong last year and this year frankly he can't afford for them to predict him B's and be wrong again,this will hinder his application to all the better uni's he has his sights set on.
Jabbed I am not asking for unrealistic, all I am asking is for his grades to predicted accurately if possible, and no I am not a ball-buster parent who complaints and ask for explanations, this will be my second visit to 6th form in two years.
And with all due respect, A/B situation maybe a "cusp" but surely D/A can not be.

DD2's ALIS predictions were rubbish and bore no relation to what she actually got. I would have been very disappointed if they had been used to heavily influence her predicted grades for university rather than her actual performance at AS and over the course.

Thank you webwiz second part of you post is what's concerning me, influence of inaccurately predicted grades on his university application, if those B's are plastered on his uni application he won't be able to get an interview at the first two uni's of his choice and that would be a shame.
There must be a way round this one.

And with all due respect, A/B situation maybe a "cusp" but surely D/A can not be

Last year I had a student who was willing but not too able. Her ALIS was an E. Her GCSE grades suggested an E or possibly a D. She wanted a B or a C , a B for university. I tutored her to the nth degree and she came out at A2 with a B (just).

So it can happen but it was not realisitic as was done to me -to pressure me with doing extra lessons,tutoring, blaming me etc all unpaid. It was never the money that bothered me, it was the hours I had to put in. I even had to do an extra course at AS to bolster her grades to make sure she made the UCAS . This grade had to be in my subject. She was no way going to make it in her others and no other teacher was going that mile to try.

I spent the year fretting and worrying and to be honest she got the grade because I predicted the questions ( luck ,that doesnt normally happen) and I bullied her mercilessly. It was not good for her or me.... and now she is off at university and has she the ability I dont know, I think its postponed a fail.

I dont know the course or subject here but sometimes with some boards there is a major jump between AS and A2. I used to teach one. I used to max out A and B grades at AS so that the students stood a reasonable chance at A2 . They could drop by two or three grades but mostly they would drop a grade So AS is not always a predictor of A2 ( not unless you take account of the fall in level and predict accordingly).

In my own case I teach a spec where I know my AS will predict A2 for me
(saves hassle like yours). However it is much harder and I take stick when AS grades are not so good. So to answer your question - yes it is possible to
get an A at AS and end up with a C or D at A2

I think sometimes we walk fine line between parent and university. The university expctthat we predict grades and give an honest picture of the applicant for them. Parents and students want us to say what they need to get in ( as you say without that prediction he/ she wont get an interview at that much wanted ( et me guess RG?) university.

However if you get your way
a) someone who might be a better overall applicant who will get the grades but doesnt put on the show might be rejected
b) the university will stop trusting us as a school to send them good candidates and make accurate statements
c that will result in a loss of contact with the universities concerned in future

But of course you will gain as a parent. Your DC will gain . You DC might make the grade but is it still right?

I used to like the old days when no one predicted anything for the university and they made their standard offers based on other things. If you got it, you were in, if not, you were out. Of course then there were no AS grades to show performance. It was all on final exams. Even then universities complained and some did their own exams.

This year school predicted B in Physics, based on AS result which was A, Why?

How secure was the A grade? A2 is more difficult than AS, which is a bridge between GCSE and A2. It is common to do less well at A2.

Hope your discussion at school is fruitful.

I think your comments are ridiculous jabed there is no moral component in making sure your child is being accurately represented especially when the school have a history of getting it wrong.

As a parent, I would much rather that a school was honest about my child. My own DC was a really high flyer - amazing GCSE's, very good AS levels. Then got ill in A2 year. Missed loads of school. Both DC and teachers put in loads of time and effort to try to compensate, but too much had happened and A2 results were nowhere near the grades needed for university. So, on recommendation of the school, DC took a gap year, had time to think and decided to apply with the grades in hand. Wrote a very honest PS, especially when trying to explain why the A2 results were not what was expected based on GCSE and AS levels. The reference from school was equally honest about results, work ethic, character etc. And as a result of the honesty, DC was interviewed for their dream university with grades that would not normally have got their application beyond the post room. Is now at said dream university and is achieving results that amaze even DCs lecturers.
So, even if it is hard to hear, I do believe honesty is the best policy.

The other thing to remember is, that at university, they will not spend their time 'bullying' a student into doing the work. Students need to be self-motivated. And those who are not, or who don't perform well enough, will not be allowed to continue. I would guess that having to leave university would be somewhat harder to bear than having to go to a 'lesser' one to begin with.

For UCAS, I give honest predictions. There's no point in getting an offer based on an unobtainable prediction. I am judged on performance against Target grade, rather than predicted grade. These may well differ, in either direction.

"Jabbed very interesting to hear from a teachers perspective"

Please do not take Jabed's views and conduct to be that of the generality of teachers.

Jabbed
However if you get your way
This isn't about me getting my way, this is about DC being accurately assessed.
Your DC might make the grade, but is it right?
Yes it is right, if predictions stay at B, but DC menages to pull out of the bag A, What is not fair in that situation? Not fair to whom?
And in all fairness you comparison of your E to B student heavily tutored draws no similarity to DS situation, we are talking Physics and raising it from D to an A without any help, his ability was never in question.

I think your comments are ridiculous jabed there is no moral component in making sure your child is being accurately represented especially when the school have a history of getting it wrong

Where is the evidence to suggest the student has NOT been accurately represented? Do the school have a history of getting it wrong? One instance does not make a history.

Are you making an assuption based just on an AS grade A? Often final grades will be one grade below that at AS. The school may be very reasonable in supposing that this will be the case, especially as the student may have clearly over performed at AS (that D prediction ).

This isn't about me getting my way, this is about DC being accurately assessed

Where is your evidence? What you are actually saying is I want an A to be predicted regarless of the professional judgement of the teacher.

Again this creeps in Often final grades will be one grade below that at AS
No, not necessarily, not always, but I do understand why school would want/like to predict one grade lower, although I am no sure if "one fit all shablon" should apply to all students,
Student comes in at AS level with A*(GCSE) chosen subject, for AS predicted grade for that subject is D, student pulls an A.
You must agree something doesn't add up in this scenario, either tutor is having difficulties sussing/assessing this particular student and tutor is being somewhat thrown by student's relaxed attitude and perhaps oscillation in students work from time to time, but good/experienced teacher should be able to understand/assess all of this.
It also looks like that this particular school, going by what you are saying jabbed will like to cover themselves ( student over performed last year, will under perform this year) I am afraid it doesn't make sense.