Would a child achieving Level 3 in yr6 be likely to obtain GCSEs?

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Am asking about my ds in yr 6 who has autism. He is currently at level 3 for Numeracy & reading may be level 4 for writing. I know this is a bit behind the average but considering we were told he would never read or write is a huge accomplishment!

The LEA are trying to send him to a special secondary school where 0% of the children obtain 5 GCSEs. We are appealing at tribunal, so was wondering if anyone knows any info on predicted outcome at GCSE or equivalent for level 3 in yr 6.

Thanks

Is the thinking around the special school placing to do with specific behavioural issues/needs with his autism? It can't be his academic levels. His levels are, yes, just below average but there is no reason why he shouldn't achieve GCSEs, especially in favoured subjects (look at DoE website for info on individual schools and the average achievements in terms of GCSEs for middle and low attainers at KS2). There are parents on here who have been denied places in special schools for their dc who are level 1 or 2 attainment at yr 6 and told to put them in mainstream - that is crazy!
Where do you want him to go? Will he cope in a mainstream setting with support, do you think? Have you visited some mainstream schools and asked what they can offer? Does he have complex needs making special school more emotionally and behaviourally suitable?
Some special schools have solid academic results and/or excellent arrangements with mainstream schools for release from year 10 to take GCSEs - does this school do that so it doesn't show in their figures?
Keep pushing for what you want (if it exists) - special needs provision is extremely patchy in this country and it makes me so angry.

Thanks for your response KitKat, very useful.

He has no behavioural issues - is described as a model pupil by his teacher. He is currently in an ASD unit in a mainstream school. His main problem is that he struggles in a large class environment, which is why they are suggesting the special school. But the special school has very low academic attainment and loads of EBD and children with behaviour problems. These behaviours are pretty extreme (violence, chair throwing etc) and would really affect him.

The problem is that in our area there is either this special school or mainstream with support. Mainstream with support wouldn't work because of the class size issue. So we have looked to the independent sector and have found the perfect school, and they have offered him a place. It is mainstream, very small and very local. 9 children in his class. Lots of ASD experience and his taster days have gone brilliantly.

The stupid thing is, it is the cheapest option - the Special School is 23k pa, mainstream with support is about 17k pa. The independent school is 8.2k pa but the LEA are fighting us. Makes no sense.

Bump

Oh, that doesn't sound at all suitable. Our ds is also ASD and is level 5 across the board (borderline 4/5 writing) in yr 6. He is going independent next year for year 7 (can just about afford it for five years!!) as local mainstream options just too big/scary/unsupportive/unsafe and there is no special provision for high functioning autism/Aspergers otherwise. We have got the LA to name the indie school on ds's statement but with a disclaimer against paying any costs as 'the local maintained school could meet his needs'. Again, wish we could have the money that would have gone towards his 15 hours 1:1 at mainstream to go towards indie fees where he won't need 1:1! Que cera. The indie sounds perfect for your ds too.

There must be some research around which shows that level 3/borderline level 4 children are perfectly capable of achieving GCSEs. Have just looked at all of our local mainstream schools and between 5-10% of 'low achievers' still achieve 5 GCSEs A-C inc E & M at them. Your ds will be seriously disserviced by going to a school without that option.

Sorry I can't help you with actual legal advice - have you looked into the services usually recommended on MN for SEN tribunals? Obviously the sums make sense to you (and me) but their argument is that the money has to stay within the maintained sector. We did wonder whether academies/free schools might slightly mitigate that argument but it seems not so far (money spread around all different types of schools now, not many LA maintained etc).
Hopefully someone might come along with some more useful legal advice, but I wouldn't give up - anecdotally I work in a grammar school where every year at least a couple of children 'pass' the 11+ (it's VR/NVR only here, not Maths/English) and come up but are working at level 3 in one if not more areas and they still achieve 5 A-Cs incl M & E.

If there is absolutely no chance of them funding the indie, are there ANY other mainstream schools with better provision for ASD, or more suitable special schools with possibility to transfer to mainstream at year 10,even if further away?

Feel so sorry for your situation (and those parents of really low ability dc told the opposite to you!); hope you can find some more research/advice to help your case. And, yes, you're right, your ds's achievements so far are already amazing:-)

ds2 has classic autism and MLD his Y6 levels in his sn primary (autism specific) were English 2A maths 2B and science 1A. In Y9 they were English 3 maths 4 Science 4. He is now in a sn secondary specifically for ASD children.

He has this summer taken external exams in English Maths Science IT at entry 3 and level 1 the latter being equivalent to a D - G foundation GCSE and unit awards at entry level for Art DT and History. We are v v proud of him. Just because he might go to a sn school doesn't mean he won't do any gcse exams - over half of ds2's class have taken some this year.

As you will see your ds is already achieving at a higher level than ds2 and so if my ds can be so close to a gcse equivalent albeit not there and perhaps never there for most subjects I would have thought your ds would easily manage at least a gcse foundation level or equivalent or even higher!

Never say never -

My friend's son has ASD and had levels 3 and 4 at sats level. He is now in year 11 (in mainstream) and has already achieved a C grade in one English exam and above C in practical subjects. He is also predicted C in maths.

Kids are supposed to aim for two levels of progress ks2:3 and three ks3:4. If they are a 3 at ks2 they should be a 5 at ks3. A 5 at ks3 should be able to get c and d grade gcses. I work in a secondary doing these ratios and targets daily.

Sorry that should say three levels of progress ks2:4.

Am surprised they are suggesting special school, where I am you would need to be in P scales at yr 6.

I don't suppose there are any units attached to secondary schools in your area? My asd son attends one and I feel that it has given him the opportunity to get the full mainstream curriculum but in a more sensitive environment.

My LEA will pay support at an indie but not the fees.

My non asd son got level 3 for english at year 6 but achieved B's in lit & lang. No stats though sorry.

These behaviours are pretty extreme (violence, chair throwing etc) and would really affect him can I ask how you actually know this to be fact?

My ds's special school also has a large number of children with EBD and behavioural problems and yes, there can be the odd instance of this happening (which also happens in mainstream ) but this no way defines the school and how it educates children with extra needs such as ours.

My ds's school do enter students for GCSEs have have had some amazing results but special schools can decide themselves whether they include their results with the government published data (league tables) so on the face of it it would look like no child at his school has ever passed a GCSE even though they have.

Although I know that there is a large majority of people who believe that mainstream is the only way to go, I am a firm believer that some children are not being served in their best interests in mainstream (even with TA support) and if your LA is anything like mine, then to be offered a place at a special school is like gold dust as they have limited places an are very costly.

The staff at special schools are very highly trained in this area and I would seriously consider it. Have you had a tour during the day? Met the staff etc? I would recommend this as your first course of action

smokinaces, the 'expected' 3 levels of progress is a very broad brush. Clearly a student who has made better than expected progress at KS2 is more likely to achieve this and a student who has made less than expected progress previously is less likely to achieve this.

The stats are:
level 3 English at KS2 -> 16% achieve C in GCSE English
Level 3 Maths at KS2 -> 13% achieve C in GCSE Maths
Level 3 Science at KS2 -> 4% achieve C in double Science.

Obviously the higher the level 3, the more likely the C grade.

Stats are here www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DCSF-RTP-09-02.pdf on pages 8 and 9

Additionally on page 11 it says with average attainment at level 3 at KS2, 18% achieve 5 GCSEs A* to C and 3% achieve 5 including English and Maths.

Thanks do much for your replies. Noblegiraffe that info is great - thanks so much.

Cricketballs I know about the behaviours because I know someone who worked there recently as a TA. also I have a good friend with a daughter at the school. I have absolutely nothing against special schools - if it was right for my son I'd be biting their hand off! I have looked at the school (I've looked at 6 schools in total) but it is so inappropriate for him it's unbelievable. Also there are so many children who would no doubt benefit massively from a place there who are being forced into mainstream. Seems so ridiculous.

Maddiemost congrats to your son for fantastic results! The special school they are suggesting is for children of average ability - no learning difficulties. however the results are very poor. There are no ASD units at secondary here - my ds is currently in 1 of only 16 primary ASD unit places at primary level in our city.

Thanks smokingaces. Very useful!

raindropsinmyhair that is great to hear, thanks you.

eatyourveg wow - congratulations to your son - that is amazing! You must be so proud! Thanks :)

Thanks for your excellent advice kitkat. Your son is doing so well, thats fantastic. Interesting to see that you are in a very similar situation to me. Did you not consider going to tribunal? This is my 3rd tribunal for ds1 (have won the previous 2), so am getting used to it now :) No maintained mainstreams are suitable because of the size and the large class sizes. He get very anxious in this environment. His mainstream integration was upped this year in his ASD unit (to prepare him for mainstream) it was a complete disaster. Conversely in a class of 9 (even a mainstream class) he is absolutely fine! And like you say, there is no need for a 1:1 in a small class.

Even though he has made really good progress in the unit I feel it has been hampered somewhat by some of the extreme behaviours displayed by some of the other kids. It really affects him. I am so sure that mainstream and small class is the way to go.

Home educate...there are lots of people out there doing just that...somewith Autism too, i just met a mum last week at a coffee morning, the cild is happy and still has social interaction

hope this helps x