Edgar - I think non-fiction is different.
Obviously a reader will only pick up a NF book if they think they can trust the writer's expertise. So you have to be well known in your field, or have some USP that a reader can trust.
Fiction is different, I feel.
Obviously, if someone has a contact, it won't hurt, but the majority of books still come from the slush pile. Agents pay people to read them.
That's how everyone from JKR to Lee Child got started.
Polly - yes a lot of good work never finds a publisher, but far more books are published than has ever been the case in history.
The last ten years have been a golden time for finding a publisher, I think.
Set to change though. The publishing houses are reducing their lists in an attempt to sell more copies of fewer titles. Like most writers I have mixed feelings about this.
Look, I'm not saying contacts are invaluable, I'm just saying they're not necessary. Writers can and do break through without them.
But I tink the myth persists because those who face rejection are seeking an easy get out clause -oh I don't have contacts, that's why.
I also think there's a pervading attitude among readers that writing is easy, something they could do if only they had the time and the contacts.