Election 2024 . Not that one, though the Trump victory is sure to influence some of what we are threatened and promised. presumably we'll have a date soon.

[DeanElderberry]

Any wise thoughts?

It's looking like SF will have the most seats but I can't see them cobbling together a stable coalition.

Though I’m not sure how she can be sure her baby is a girl?

Oh my @VaddaABeetch you are very very bold !!!

Is there any other country in the world with two main parties are fairly indistinguishable from each other?

I agree @Onehorsetown in fact I'd go further and say if you want to create a divided and racist society the best way to go about it is to house new immigrants in a deprived area where a whole generation are unable to move from the family home and already feel disenfranchised. It's the people who are shutting down debate about a robust system for asylum seekers and migrants, and shouting racism at everyone that are actually stoking the fire. The overall majority of people value the contribution migrants bring to society. You'll always get a small genuinely intolerant racist group in every part of the world unfortunately but that's a very small minority.

They grew out of the 1916 rebellion with the same cause - freedom from British rule.
Sadly because of the treaty they split I always think Dev pulled a fast one on Michael Collins. How well would he do if he was over there negotiating. So no wonder they are almost indistinguishable from each other.

79% of the boxes open here and so far the top three (we're a three-seater) are a predictable independent, another I'd slightly hoped would survive because he's intelligent and has done good work on several important things even if his party is a bit iffy, and the little baby FF-er whose 15-year old mammy canvassed me (evidently she's actually 70, the family should sell their genes). I'd be fairly happy with them.

You are correct of course SF was second in seat numbers. Bit they had the highest popular vote iirc. Didn't run enough candidates that year. I wonder if the Borg will go in with Independents this time. It's usually the kiss of death to smaller parties. Particularly if the economy starts to struggle. There could be a cold wind coming from Trumpland.

How has the constituency juggle changed things? Usually independents and smaller parties are going to do better in 4 or 5 seaters. Though Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath and the Healy-Rays so who knows?

What a difference 4 years makes.
Simon Harris in 2020 got 12.29 % in first preferences snd got in on the 15th count.
In 2024 he got 30.4% according to tallies.

Similarly Mary-Lou's FPV has gone down from 35.7% in 2020 to 19.4%, although last time she didn't have a party running mate

x.com/gniaodha/status/1862855157609828476?s=46

Pic of that misery t-shirt!

Interesting analysis of the monks popularity.

www.thejournal.ie/gerry-the-monk-hutch-looking-likely-to-win-a-seat-in-dublin-central-6557757-Nov2024/

Jesus and I remember a time when the Healy's Rae's were the most "out there" candidates.

They'll need a ring of steel around Leinster House to protect Hutch from Kinahan et al.
Of course they could have a compromise, nominate Kinahan to the Seanad. Keep him busy like. Maybe Conor McGregor as US Ambassador. Got to reward hard work and entrepreneurship.
Follow me for more ideas on how to run a wealthy European democracy in the 21st century!

Larry Murphy for President?

If Hutch gets a seat, would that mean that his bail would be extended? What effect would it have on his returning to Spain for his trial I wonder. And don't get me started on Dail privilege. He could say anything he wants about anything or anyone!

A great role model to be sure @Dontlletmedownbruce

It actually makes my stomach turn that Hutch could be on the taxpayers payroll.

Yes it is a sign of how far we have fallen as a society. Tony Gregory stood up to the drug pushers. Now they are triumphant.

It's like we're living in an episode of Black Mirror

Has no one thought this is a scream at the government? We are here. You have ignored us for decades.

Gerry Hutch was found not guilty in 2023. He is free and legally entitled to run for a government seat. And I know I'm being pedantic but Gerry Hutch has never been convicted of selling or dealing drugs.

Hutch for a time was active in the community. It was him who funded the boxing club Kelly Harrington trained in.

The area has been ignored, forgotten and neglected and people have looked around.

I've said it several times DC is screaming for a new Tony Gregory.

Catriona Perry just interviewing Mary Lou on the beeb.
Mary Lou looking pleased and confident, saying the peace is now embedded in society, more than twenty years since the GFA and that referenda should be forthcoming.

(Catriona looking wrecked and the voice starting to crack, bless.)

I saw a quote from someone earlier (can't remember who), that said it wasn't a protest vote, it was a cry for help. And I thought that was very poignant.

I presume MLMD was referring to a Border Poll and a United Ireland when speaking with Caitriona Perry.

Quite frankly I doubt that the vast majority of people North or South give that issue more than a passing glance. It is so aspirational and ill timed of SF to raise this now IMV. Far more important things to worry about with Trump breathing fire on our MNCs and our own house needing a lot more housekeeping too.

No wonder SF are where they are. Finger is not on the pulse at all.

The Irish love to whinge but do the same thing over and over…

One problem is nobody in my circle votes for Sinn Fein. We are older (50s) and still don’t trust them. It was once taboo to vote for them and that is not forgotten.
And they are the main opposition to FF/FG at the moment. It’ll take a few more years for people to move on. But it definitely has an impact on how well FF/FG do right now.
Basically, the major opposition party is one that many of us won’t vote for for historical reasons.