Election 2024 . Not that one, though the Trump victory is sure to influence some of what we are threatened and promised. presumably we'll have a date soon.

[DeanElderberry]

Any wise thoughts?

MS & GH are out on the ground talking to people, GH was driving around in a van with his face and speakers playing Thin Lizzy, waving and beeping at everyone.

Whether he gets anything remains to be seen, but the campaign he is implementing is highly entertaining.

Clare Daly is in Mary Lou's constituency too! Mary Lou has been very passionate about Palestine but Clare Daly has been also. If Palestine is your single issue or one of your top issues who gets your no 1?

DC is an interesting one.
ML will top the poll
Followed by PD
GG also very likely to get a seat.

4th seat here will be interesting. Possibly CD.
MF could do it.

The Dáil has the potential to be very entertaining if we get very vocal Independent TDs like Gerard Hutch, Gavin Pepper, Malachy Stenson, the Healy Raes, Matty McGrath (love him!) they won't be holding back! The Healy Raes & Matty McGrath are topping the polls as expected in their constituencies.

MS very popular in DC too. Will be interesting how the votes differ between GG and MS. I feel she could take a lot of his votes this time.

I wouldn't be putting any money on GG, he has not been seen in last 4yrs and getting a lot of flack online.

I know a lot of previous No1 including myself which would be entertaining him.

@DublinFemale I think MS could take a lot of his votes.

Not sure about CD, strong pro immigration tendencies in an area overrun with homelessness and a strong coherent the appearance (not saying it's true) of migrants getting "forever homes" over locals.

The social democrats won't do well in DC too much. Mary Lou are Paschal Donoghue are dead certs. Clare Daly is a strong possibility.
Geard Hutch & Malachy are very popular in the area plus they may well get a very strong anti government vote.

That's a very good point I hadn't factored in. The EU election was probably her stronger chance of getting elected but she missed out.

I think he will, MS is out and getting his face out there, his messages on his leaflet come across as fair and sensible.

GG is promising stars and has done nothing to date.

DC inner city is screaming for a Tony Gregory another strong voice not afraid to speak up for the area. MS could tap into that.

If he gets in and uses his voice, he will be popular. Use his Dail privilege much like TG in 80's to name all the drug dealers.

It's an interesting constituency.
Depends on turnout from the inner city, traditionally it's very low.
Much higher turnout in areas like Drumcondra, Phibsboro, Stoneybatter and Glasnevin.
There are a lot of immigrants living in the area too.

Malachy Steenson does an awful lot of good work for his area, he's a solicitor by profession too so he knows his stuff.
I'm sure he & Gerard Hutch will be very transerrable with each getting 1,2 & vice versa.

Yes, DC will going to be a tight race for 3rd and 4th seat.

Don't think ML will fare as strongly as other years. Will get in but would not be at all surprised if not on first count.

She is very late to the party on immigration and rightly or wrongly that is big talking point in North inner city Dublin

Will be very interesting to see if GG of social democrats can keep his seat in DC.
Social democrats are very popular in the more affluent parts of the constituency.

I think ML will get in on the first count.
I think enough people prefer to vote for a main party candidate.
Most people looking for a stable government rather than entertainment value of outspoken independents.

@DublinFemale My prediction for DC would be Paschal Donoghue, Mary Lou, Malachy Steenson & Gerard Hutch. You are right Mary Lou will probably get in on the 2nd or 3rd round. Clare Daly probably 5th place with no seat. Wonder why she ran in DC this time around.

There has been a strong message of register to vote.

DC will be interesting and with a huge, amount of candidates for 4 seats, some are not even canvassing, leaflets or anything.

Aontú, PBP, CD GP, Labour, FF are simply nowhere to be seen, they could possibly be concentrating on D7.

Although GG, born and reared in inner city and he is invisible also.

Marie Sherlock of Labour very active as a senator in that area and very well liked. Lives in the area too.

I'm thinking

PD, ML, MS, but really have no prediction for 4th.

I don't even know who to vote 4&5 will be on my ballot and I am reading and looking at what the candidates represent.

Would be a mistake to concentrate on just D7. Hutch orchestrated a huge operation to get people on the register when he decided to run. It may just pay off for him & benefit Malachy too.

If believe DC is the constituency where it's easiest to get elected with the lowest number of votes due to the low turnout.

You could even leave it at that if they're your top preferences? I'm only going down as far as 5

If turnout is in high inner city MS could get it.
He won't be popular in the more affluent parts though. SD, Greens, Labour will do well there and transfer to each other.

I think canvasers often stick to the areas they know they are popular. So some candidates will be invisible in certain parts.