If there’s another election in Northern Ireland

[asblindasabat]

Which party do you think will come out as largest? I would have thought it would still be Sinn Fein but some are saying that this time around (if there still is no executive and the Secretary of State calls an election) the DUP may actually win.

thoughts?

It would depend on the branch offs of the DUP swallowing their pride and either rejoining the DUP or not standing so that DUP can take majority seats. Last time, it was unionists who had majority votes but they couldn’t secure a win because the numbers were spread between TUV and all the other factions. I’m past caring, it’s been a shit show for years and nothing much changes. I’m absolutely loathed at the money they take home each month and yet we still have no executive. NI always gets left behind. However the only way I can see this stand off ever bloody ending is with a DUP majority, just so we can get them back to work!

SF there’s no chance anyone has a look in (I don’t like any of them)

I am brought up in a unionist background, would sooner vote SF than DUP (tho alliance gets my 1st pref). Cannot bear Jeffrey (who stood for MLA to lead from the front... apparently... then decided, "nah, don't fancy it after all" and handed over his seat). I hope the DUP gets beaten in more seats by the more moderate parties, but it's hard to imagine them not being the biggest unionist party so there will still be no executive. My guess is that they will find some spurious reason to decide that enough has been done about 'the protocol' at the 11th hour to agree to go in to an executive and avoid an election

You think SF will win? Just interested in peoples thoughts.

im unionist so I’d rather have DUP win, not because I like the DUP, I don’t! But because I’d feel more secure with another unionist first minister. I don’t want a nationalist party as first minister as I just feel like it is a risk

I really think it is meaningless to speculate. There will be more elections, and things will change, and change again after that. If you zoom out and look 50 years back, wow! I live in a hugely unionist area (think almost no Catholics), and can certainly vouch for their being many "good" and "reasonable" people active in the DUP, who do good work at a community level.

However, when you look at the broader electoral area there are serious social problems with lack of job opportunities, poor education, intergenerational unemployment, drugs and all the associated ills. These problems are not unique to our area, but these need to be a priority. From a farming background originally, I'm also very concerned about the future and security of support schemes there.

Personally I don't know people in SF, but I've always associated them with support of the IRA. Of course, I'd also know DUP supporters very much aligned with our own wee terrorist organisations too.

There is so much opportunity in the wonderful part of the world, I hope we can take it.

SF will come out the largest party for sure. I know people who voted SDLP (wasted vote) who would now vote SF. They wouldn't be SF voters typically but people are so pissed off with how DUP is holding us all to random. Personally I don't even think it's because of the protocol but because he can't stomach a nationalist first minister . I've heard several unionist callers on Stephen Nolan actually saying they would vote SF too! The cost of living crisis is also not doing DUP any favours either.

I just voted last time for the lovely woman who ran an energetic and concerted campaign about local schemes for male youths to give them something to do off the street, men’s shed support (big and amazing org in our town), park/street/beach cleaning efforts, groups for women and girls - tons of real grass roots stuff. I honestly have lost all faith in the overall system but I wanted to encourage women like her who give a shit about their community.

literally these days the only thing more depressing than NI politics is wider U.K. stuff.

A risk to what, exactly?

I don’t want a nationalist party as first minister as I just feel like it is a risk

I would also like to know what you mean by this, OP?

To the union of the United Kingdom - I am unionist and don’t support a United Ireland.

Even if a it's what a majority eventually want?

Well, there’s nothing I can do if there is a border poll and that’s what the result is. I (personally) am
against a UI. If I thought it was financially viable I would be for it but I don’t believe it is and I think we are better off in the UK.

but I’m not sure that there is any evidence or indication, at this point, that a majority of people want a UI.

I don't think it's as black and white as that, agreed.

If we were to vote on that, I'd want to see an exact plan of how it was going to work financially. Having lived on both sides of the border, there are major positives and negatives to both.

What I don't want, is for a half arsed vote launched to a public that don't know what their voting for, and having to deal with the fallout of it for years to come. I.e. the shitshow that is Brexit.

Irrespective of my religion or political views, how any party can be allowed to retain salaries by not fulfilling their job is completely scandalous. The DUP should be utterly ashamed of themselves in cc the midst of a cost of living crisis.

@washingbasketqueen

no vote is a wasted vote and that’s a stupid phrase the likes of SF and DUP use the try and make the electorate so dumb that they won’t think and act for themselves.

By voting for SDLP, UU and Alliance people are telling SF and DUP that they are not happy with their games and they are very much still eligible voters with a pen to use. This in turn encourages more voters to put a cross with these moderate parties because they feel more confident they are not out there on their own voting for these parties or going against the grain. I’ve done this for years and it eventually paid off when Alliance finally took a seat in North Antrim something I thought I would never see and was always consistently told I’d wasted my vote.

I think if there is another election DUP will try very much to play more games to win back seats.

@blubberyboo That's a valid point about wasted votes, but I'd also highlight that where the Alliance won that seat is somewhat of a exceptional area when you consider education, salaries, employment and so on. Just go a little bit further south to Newtownards, Comber and so on it's different. Schools not so good, lower level of education and opportunities, drugs, crime and a lot more! There is a lot to done here, irrespective of politics, which could improve lives.

I think SF will win again. The DUP are too behind the times so the unionist vote is spread