Shocked at Aust/NZ v ROI/UK

[YoungsterIwish]

Australia and NZ have pretty much eliminated Covid with minimal deaths.

Australia: 6,194 cases; 97 deaths; 18 new cases today. Deaths per 1M pop: 4

NZ: 1,490 cases; 21 deaths; 1 new case today. Deaths per 1M pop: 4

V

Ireland: 22,541 cases; 1,429 deaths. 156 new cases today. Deaths per 1M pop: 289

UK: 211,364 cases; 31,241 deaths; 4,649 new cases today. Deaths per 1M pop: 460

NZ and Oz both closed their borders. Oz even closed its state borders.

Meanwhile there were at least 7 flights into Dublin airport today, from countries with more cases than here

Recommended isolation that only 33% of passengers follow.

With all the loss of lives and other costs, emotional, educational, physical, financial, etc that Covid and lockdowns are causing, why on earth do they not close the border like NZ/Oz??

I know it would take agreement between ROI/NI as we need an all island approach...but why are they letting flights into Dublin? That many Irish returning home? There's a mandatory 14 day enforced isolation for all NZ'ers on arrival to NZ, that needs to be done here

In Australia, the city you land in buses you to a local hotel for 14 day mandatory stay.
If you then need to fly to another city to get home, again a 14 day stay in a hotel.
This has kept the cases very low in South Australia.
The federal government has spent a lot of money on this.
Those that test positive in the community, must stay at home for 14 days.
The police check on them and if found to be breaking the rules, you go to jail.
Would your government spend the money needed?

The enforced quarantine is happening in Australia too which I think is crucial.

I was reading a thread the other day on MN where they said X number of flights were landing in London and passengers were then making their way through London to quarantine wherever 🤯

They are spending it on covid unemployment, on wage subsidy scheme, paying childcare providers, garda checkpoints, hospitals, taking over private hospitals...doing what Australia did sounds pretty cost effective to me!

Our government are spending on wage subsidy and childcare also.

I think that we were able to catch it earlier, that's all.

I'm pretty impressed with how Leo is doing. Dh is Irish so we've watched it pretty closely.

I'm in NZ. We had more time and far easier borders to control. Our health system in no way could handle a Covid 19 wave and I think most NZ'ers understand that so compliance to our lockdown has been high.

Our media have reported that our pandemic planning was for a more flu based illness rather than a custer based one (I don't really understand the difference though) and because of this our contact tracing was far below the necessary level. So it was pretty apparent that without quick action NZ was not going to come out of this well.

And we are one country without states so it's easier to make national decisions and implement them.

But our economy has taken a massive hit and it's only going to be apparent how much when our wage subsidy system runs out. We quite possibly could be sitting cut off from the rest of the world when the rest of the world is pretty much back to normal.

It's all very well to applaud NZ/AUS but the reality is they have likely just delayed the issue.

Unless a vaccine is found both will have to block all immigration if they don't want the cycle to start again and be very slow to ease lockdown.

How long can they do/afford this?

As much as people don't want to acknowledge it, without a vaccine, herd immunity is the solution and the reason for lockdown in the U.K. isn't to prevent transmission of the virus but to delay it so the NHS isn't overwhelmed.

Many virologists are of the view that the death rates per capita will end up the same whatever strategy the govt chooses to do - again until a vaccine is found.

The difference will be the timeframe over which these accumulate and it may be if a vaccine is found sooner than expected that NZ/AUS come out of this better than other counties, but alternatively they might be worse off in the long run if it isn't.

No need to block immigration when they have a 14 day quarantine.

As for tourism, half of NZ's tourists come from Australia and they are already looking at opening up travel between Australia and NZ.

Tourism is only a small part of Australia's GDP and 3/4 of that is domestic.

Yes, ROI is doing lots right but also missed the boat on a number of things...I know hindsight is great...but there were a few "Cheltenham" clusters near here.

Anyway, NPHET are discussing enforced quarantine next. Michael Healy Rae is on for isolating travellers on Spike Island, not his worst idea!

Herd immunity hasn't worked too well for many in NYC or Lombardy

No need to block immigration when they have a 14 day quarantine

But that's the point.

They are still relying on a strategy that a vaccine will be the answer.

The question is how far the economy can stretch to accommodate that reality.

If they have to release quarantine to protect the economy before a vaccine then they will be in a similar situation to most other countries.

As for herd immunity, no it isn't great because the reality is that a lot of people will die to save the many. It's brutal.

However you have to weigh that against how many lives would have been lost regardless through other underlying health conditions and lives potentially lost as a result of lockdown and a severe economic recession.

I don't see how a 14 quarantine on arrivals to a country like Australia will be so damaging to their economy.

If their economy was dependant on international tourism, like the Canaries, I can understand then.

Maybe 14 days quarantine will put even businessmen off
Def tourists , obviously this may well workplace between nz/aus
I think it's too early to tell who will come out better in the long run when you take everything into account

I'm a Brit living in sydney,

I've watched this unfold and can say that our first and most important factor was that the virus arrived here slightly later than the UK.
This was surprising given the huge Chinese population here.

However, when the pandemic began, all Chinese students were back home in China for uni holidays and then Chinese New Year. The country pretty much shuts down over summer and nothing really gets started again until February.
We also went into lockdown earlier in our journey, maybe 7-10 days ahead of the UK.

Then we had the ruby princess debacle, forcing the government here to take drastic measures in terms of quarantine. Anyone arriving into the country is placed in a quarantine hotel at cost to the government and under armed guard. Since at this point community transmission was very low it effectively halted the spread.

Obviously this is hugely expensive however we are now in a position where lockdown is being eased and people are returning to work.
I'd say that quarantine cost was cheaper than longer term unemployment.

The biggest impact now and going forward will be to tourism, it's a fairly large part of our economy, though we are also heading into winter. People will spend their holidays here instead of overseas which will go some way to helping but I'm not really sure what next year looks like.

It's definitely an interesting conversation, I know I feel pretty safe and despite losing my job due to COVID, am positive things will improve economy wise over the next few months.

I must admit I find it strange we are still having arrivals in UK I get some are maybe returning citizens ( not sure why back so late ) and some will be workers , but surely you wouldn't choose to holiday here now as nothing's open as well as obviously the virus . I know we have planes arriving incl passengers with cargo on at times but why would people come here unless got a valid reason ?

I think one of the biggest reasons Aus and NZ have handled it so much better than us is so few in those countries would agree with attitudes like DeRigueurMortis

I think the people of Australia and New Zealand understand that a virus can't spread if you don't let it.

There's no inevitability to mass deaths herd immunity. That's a spectacularly foolhardy and dangerous policy to pursue (even if you don't value lives, particularly those of the BAME community) given it's a new disease - with potential as yet unknown long-term effects.

Like PP say Aus and NZ don't solely rely on tourism. In any event if there was widespread sickness (and deaths) the tourism industry wouldn't be operating as normal. There wouldn't be the staff.

If there's proper quarantine the virus never gets out to spread in the first place. All very simple.

There are treatments that all show promise if given early. These are likely available before a vaccine (which is progressing well). In fact I believe Australia was already using one of the trial drugs with some success.

Incidentally what tourist or businessman/woman will want to come to the UK? One of the most heavily affected countries in the world?

OP. I didn't realise Dublin was still receiving flights with no quarantine. I thought we (UK) were the only ones making such poor decisions. Sorry it's the same in Ireland. I think you've done better than us but I expect that's perhaps not much consolation since it's not hard to do better than the UK!

I think Australia and NZ chose the sensible short term pain, long-term gain policy. Like you say strict measures at the start but they succeeded and now able to (safely) ease up a little. As well as many lives saved, your economies will recover faster.

Easily anxious It's ridiculous isn't it. You'd think we'd at least have some kind of checks or quarantine. It makes a mockery of lockdown.

It's like a voluntary self isolation..so entirely dependent on people chosing to obey it.

Australia banned foreigners coming from China very early on..sounds like the timing was good as it was before the academic year started.

Depressingly, I'm starting to realise the only way back to normal is a vaccine. Otherwise it's borders closed/social distancing (or a huge death rate for the herd immunity believers)

The middle way is quarantine and checks rather than completely closed borders. Yes also some social distancing but we can adapt. Work a lot around that. Masks, work from home for all those who can, virtual medical appointments for anything that doesn't require face to face, staggered working hours to prevent transport overcrowding, spaced out tables when restaurants reopen, etc.

We also have potential treatment. A number of drugs have proved pretty successful when given early (preferably before hospital stage). They're not miracle cures but they can and have helped people. It's certainly better than nothing and making more of these will be quicker than waiting for mass availability of a vaccine.

@ToffeeYoghurt but quarantining is fine in short term long term it can't work as you can't holiday somewhere and quarantine for your holiday
It would made sense if the whole world had shut birders together in some way for short period of time
Testing and tracing is needed but again this relies on people admitting they have symptoms ( obviously a symptomatic people excluded )
Social distancing as much as possible although not possible in all scenarios
Masks I'm 50/50 on as the way some people use and wear them is probably more risky , same as gloves in supermarkets it's scary the false sense if security it gives people

The virtual medical appts I all die had to call des the other day , I got straight through ( normally takes hours ) dr caked back in less than an hour and all sorted . I think lots that can be dealt with over the phone freeing space for those that really need to be seen so even without covid I think this is worth considering
Working from home I think will become more the norm as companies can save money on office space , electric etc as well and virtual meetings may save alit if unnecessary travel

Sorry wish there was edit button meant to read I had to call the Drs the other day

I've always hated going to the doctors. Sitting waiting in a cramped hot waiting room with loads of other ill people. It's particularly shit having to sit there ages when you're not feeling well. I love virtual appointments. Obviously we'd still need to go in person for some things.
Working from home too. So many people have miserable commutes and are stuck all day in cramped airless offices. It can be much more comfortable and less stressful at home. Some people like the social aspect of a workplace so perhaps a mix works best.