Sinn Féin in the lead! FF & FG surprised?! What do you think? Exciting or scary times?!

[Housiemousie]

I have always been a Fine Gael voter. I'm from a long line of FG voters, many active in the party, who would be horrified by how much I want Mary Lou to succeed.

I really want to like Leo. He looks the part but he's not speaking to me. I am self employed in rural Ireland and neither FF or FG have sounded like they know I or any of my family or friends exist in the 20 years I have lived here (having worked abroad for a decade post uni). I even have a soft spot for Micheál Martin (who can resist a Cork accent) But I am not a farmer so he's not representing me either.

So why is Mary Lou so appealing? I couldn't even listen to Gerry Adams. Is it the fact that because she's not northern I'm not thinking IRA? Or because we really have moved past that , or is it that we are so, so sick of the entrenched fat cats of FF and FG that anything (well, almost, you can keep Aontu) will be better?

I'd love to hear I'm not alone in finding this upcoming election more exciting than previous ones.

Anyone savvy might see that SF cannot do the numbers without FF. Seems like that is not going to happen and I don't blame FF either.

FG no chance aligning with SF either.

So maybe it is FF/FG/AN other for the foreseeable. I genuinely think most folk want stability now what with the Brexit Bus coming down the road and we need a ballsy person to shoot Boris in the foot! lol.

SF in power will only light the flames. But whatever.

Remember 2/3rd did NOT vote for SF. They did NOT win the election despite what you are told by the usual mouthpieces.

I reckon it will be FF.FG. and maybe Greens.

Or another election in three months time. Which will definitely play into SF hands.

Interesting times. Looking on from afar, so if I am wrong, my apologies.

If it's FG, FF, and the Greens we could be looking at SF getting twice the seats next time round.

I'm not sure if FG would go in with FF anyway - I think they might do a confidence and supply type thing though. But FF would still need more numbers.

FG are not interested in providing confidence and supply, especially having seen how FF got punished for it.

Unless something changes we're heading for another election, which SF will win. The left wing government with support from Solidarity, Soc Dems, etc, would be possible.

I think FF are mad to take this approach (unless they're just playing hard to get).

How long could we go without forming a government?

The current Gov stays in place until a new one is formed. So that could be as long as a piece of string..

I remember reading that Belgium still has not got a Government but they are doing OK. Way to go maybe, but life goes on.

euobserver.com/political/146520

Apileofballyhoo Thu 13-Feb-20 09:09:32
Well said.

Neither FF nor FG wants another election because SF would be idiots not to field candidates in every constituency, with nothing to lose but their deposits, whereas FF and FG might be risking consignment to the dustbin of history.

So I figure once they have all run some polling they will find some way to form a government.

I doubt they care but will want to appear respectable. I just hope FF and SF go in. If there is an independent alliance with PBP taking a part in Govt. Well we can kiss goodbye to any prosperity. These lefties love being in opposition
I wonder are SF so obstructionist/,deluded thinking that its putting anyone off forming a Govt ?????

Well if the greens go in I hope they aren't fucking stupid about it.

Carbon tax will have to redistributed in a way that makes things fairer while still encouraging people to use less.

It has to pay for grants for people to insulate their houses and the grants can't be inaccessible to those on low incomes because of too high a threshold of the part you pay yourself.

It has to go towards subsidising public transport so it's cheaper to get a bus or train. I can drive to Dublin for the same price as the train for me, but if DS comes with me it's cheaper to take the car, and if DH and DS come it's way cheaper to take the car. Also costs too much to leave the car at the train station. Then there's the added expense of travelling in Dublin.

If they want to make changes they'd want to make changes that actually work or they'll be out on their ear again.

So I figure once they have all run some polling they will find some way to form a government.

Funnily enough Red C sent me a poll a couple of days ago asking who I voted for and what coalition options I prefer. I got the sense it was being done for FF as the options presented were essentially the FF options.

From reading and watching from afar, it is looking to me that there will be an accommodation/coalition amongst FFG and +

Got to keep the Shinners out at all costs, and rightly so. They cannot form a Government on their own, so naff off right now and continue to snipe from the Opposition benches. Which is all they are capable of. IMO.

I think SF are hoping not to be in Gov but pretending that they want it.

The thing with keeping SF out now is, unless there's a radical improvement in what people are unhappy about - I think housing, health care and child care - SF will pick up an awful lot more seats in the next GE.

But I am not filled with confidence.

Exactly Apileofballyhoo

Honestly FF are so short sighted. The way to neutralise SF is to bring them into government now. Keeping them out now, after they won the popular vote, and teaming up with the other arse cheek will just piss off the electorate.

You can't just ignore SF, much as many people would like to. The choice is to either take them into government now or hand them the next election on a silver platter.

While it is tempting to let people see them warts and all, we can see from America how much damage a dodgy administration can do. They would be electing judges, have review powers over the special court etc

That would be impossible if they were partners in government. Our system can't be compared to America.

However, keep them out now and they will have an even stronger mandate next time round. They will lead, not just be a partner in, the next government. If you oppose Sinn Fein, surely this is the last thing you want?

Cacacoisfarraige So even if that's true, you have to pick your poison now (or rather FF do). A reigned in SF now or rampant SF after the next election.

I don't think FF can be stupid enough not to see this. Their hard line may well just be posturing. In a few weeks they'll be in government with SF 'for the national interest.'

I think Fianna Fáil should have a good look at that exit poll survey. People said they don't mind paying more tax for improved services. The thing is, everybody is affected by the housing now. People that bought homes at the start of the boom and should be sitting pretty now have young adult kids who are paying huge rents or can't afford to move out. The only people that are ok are those with teenagers, people younger than that either are paying huge child care or didn't manage to get on the ladder at all.

So 20s and 30s age group are pissed off, with some 40s still paying high child care though they did get on the ladder, possibly went through the hell of negative equity/stress of meeting mortgage payments, losing their jobs etc. 50s age group probably some were affected by negative equity and job losses and also some having young adult children at this stage who are paying huge rents themselves.

I'm roughly basing this on family and friends. But it's a lot of different age groups to be affected by one thing.

There needs to be a proper strategy not this lurching from one crisis to another and hoping the market resolves things itself - that one's for you, Fine Gael. It won't fix itself. Capitalism and free markets are not the answer to everything, Leo.

I'm seeing an increasing amount of worrying hints from the banks and commentators that credit rules need to be relaxed. We all know what happened last time - that one is for you Fianna Fáil. There is no quick fix.

I remember when the property tax was brought in there were people shouting until they were blue in the face that it needed to be on land not houses. As that stops people hoarding land for development and lowers the tax for ordinary people with ordinary houses. But no we couldn't do it that way. We had to make it cheaper for developers to hoard land and more expensive for ordinary people.

And if either of those parties look to private enterprise to provide social housing - which they have been doing for years through rent allowance and now HAP and RAS they are just being utterly stupid. It just costs the tax payer more and more and more money.