The problem with inflation forecasting is that it is awful.
If you look at the BOE inflation forecasting over the past few years it is absolutely woeful. They persistently seem to underestimate how large it will be and how (in)significant the effects of IR rises are, which is kind of scary considering their primary remit is to keep inflation at 2%. They are staggeringly bad at fulfilling this. Certainly when you consider the inflation rate at the moment the UK base rate should actually be higher than the US, when in fact it is lower. My opinion is that the UK is raising rates begrudgingly, at the absolute minimum it has to to prevent trashing the currency against the USD. We are pretty much tied to the Fed atm.
So I don't believe the BOE, much less the IMF in its ability to forecast inflation.
I think rates will come down in the medium term, but considering we are normally have rates above the US (maybe 1%+) and at the moment our inflation is much higher than the US yet we are approx. 1%- then I would be surprised to see UK rates coming down in the immediate future (more likely go up by the minimum rise for a few months yet). The trigger for the UK rates to start fall is probably the US going into recession.
I think if the Fed do another 25bps at the beginning of May, another 25bps for the UK is pretty much nailed on, although of course no one can predict with any certainty exactly what is going to happen.