Energy prices set to rise another 40 percent.

[flapjackfairy]

So it seems Jeremy Hunt is refusing to lower the price cap despite falling gas prices meaning we are looking at another 40 percent hike in April.
We have 2 severely disabled kids who rely on lots of medical equipment and need a warm. house to stay well and that's not to mention the endless washing.
We paid £700 for December and are looking at around £600 for January so another 40 percent sees us paying up to a thousand a month in the winter.
I know spring is on the horizon but how on earth will people cope next winter ?
And all whilst energy companies double their profits to mega billions! It is disgusting!

I heard yesterday that my supplier is doing a tracker tariff which follows current wholesale prices - waiting to hear back as to whether/how I can sign up.

it is not so much that I am confused more that I dont trust the companies to drop the prices if they can get away with highter tariffs because the cap is still at a higher level.
Just hope by next winter things have settled a bit and prices have indeed come down but tbh I will believe it when I see it.

This. They can kiss my ass, I'm not fixing.

The price cap is defined by a strict calculation methodology - it can’t be changed on a whim. The April price cap is going up, because it is based on prices over the winter period, further, it’s not spot prices, it’s forward prices (ie the price paid by energy suppliers to buy it). Forward prices have only recently declined. So the price is going up 20%, plus customers are losing the £400 support.

The better news is that by next winter, lower wholesale prices will be included in the cap, last time I looked it seemed to be around £2,100ish, equivalent to now (now has the EPG of £2,500 less £400 of support). So the price is currently artificially ‘lower’ at £2,100 (not low at all I realise), whereas this winter it will be at that level without support.

New suppliers now have to pay a ‘market stabilisation charge’ to the old supplier to reflect the cost of hedging, so it will be difficult to undercut the price cap by much.

Current lower prices over winter have been as a result of warmer weather (hard to believe at points) plus lower Chinese demand due to surging Covid cases. Chinese demand is likely to increase, and obviously Ukraine volatility remains present - not much has been solved tbh.

We had the same from Bulb.

Either way, it really feels like we have to take responsibility for ourselves. Not sure what'll happen with Octopus but it's easy to put our DD up and down with Bulb, so as and when we have money left over or the rare chance of overtime in my case, then I'll be looking to put that into our account in the hope we can build some extra credit this summer.

On average it'll get warmer next month, so hopefully that'll mean we can reduce heating and also make meals that are a lot quicker to cook or salad instead of cooked veggies.

Unless you're single with no DC and on min wage then you won't get anything

@Rebel2023 but your posts are contradictory. Initially you've said single people with NO DC will get it. Now you're saying it's not fair that they won't.

FWIW, I agree it's hard financially when there's only one income! 25% off council tax being the only thing that's adjusted.

@WhoNeedsSleepNotISaidMyBody phrased it badly

It should have said
Yes low income will get it, unless you're single with no DC
I'm saying if you're single with no children, you get nothing ever and people on min wage with one income are struggling
People with children will get it because they're usually entitled to universal credit on min wage

You need to look at the octopus tracker tariff!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Google it. It follows wholesale prices which are dropping. The Energy cap follows historical prices so there's a lag in seeing the prices drop on the standard variable. You won't feel this reduction until July as it's based on historical prices.

Octopus tracker is based on wholesale prices now! To take the stress out of it I've made a tutorial that shows how to add the octopus tracker prices as a push notification on your iPhone it's on TikTok.

The prices change each day but if you know each morning the price its a lot less worrying. Prices are 20-30% cheaper than the standard variable!!

so as and when we have money left over or the rare chance of overtime in my case, then I'll be looking to put that into our account in the hope we can build some extra credit this summer.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to put any extra money into a savings account that earns interest?

I switched to it the other day and have already saved ££ compared to the SVR.

Fantastic have you added the shortcut notification to your phone? I am slightly addicted to checking it lol

How to add the shortcut to your iPhone - Part one where you get an icon on your home screen and can click for prices.

Video 2 - Automating a push notification once part one is set up. Without thinking you will get notified each day of the Octopus tracker prices.

I can't get my head around it when gas wholesale prices are down to the levels they were before the hikes and the companies are announcing huge profits.
I wonder when it will all just become too much and surely spill over in to civil unrest?

We all seem so passive about it-it's bizarre.

The prices change each day but if you know each morning the price its a lot less worrying. Prices are 20-30% cheaper than the standard variable!!

That isn’t guaranteed. There is a warning on the Octopus tracker web page…

“Market spikes can send Tracker prices up to 100p/kWh for electricity or 30p/KWh for gas – that's three times higher than most customers are paying right now on variable tariffs like Flexible Octopus.”

”This tariff is best suited to customers who can shift large amounts of their energy use to avoid these expensive peaks.”

Yes there is a warning and rightly so BUT the cap is irrelevant if you are watching prices and jump before they go up IF they do up up higher.

You have the 34p per kWh plus the deduction on top of that as part of the energy price guarantee discount so they'd have to go up a lot higher and you'd see that coming!

Now you would pay 20% at least less. I have been watching these prices daily for months!

You dont need to load shift. That isn't quite right that refers more to the Agile tariff. You get a set price for the day and you get charged that price if you have a smart meter. If you don't have a smart meter they work out the average per kWh over the month. You don't need to load shift to save money on this tariff.

I expect an announcement of some sort of support in early to mid-April. No guessing what it will be.

Matrin Lewis has done a great video on what wholesale prices are down but prices will go up in April.It is because they are based on historical prices under the energy price cap. It was meant to protect consumers by smoothing out sharp increases but at the moment it is preventing a price drop. Martin Lewis has written a letter to Hunt about it asking not to increase prices in April.

You can avoid this on the tracker tariff now!

Thanks for the tip @sazzleevans unfortunately I don't have an IPhone.

I've bookmarked my unit rates on mysmartenergy and either check there or look at the tariff info on my online octopus account.

I don't usually come onto forums to share info like this but so many people are struggling and I get lots of questions from men who are switching their tariffs over to this so as I am a member I thought I would highlight it.

This is me on BBC News.

Good idea! I did see a shortcut for android and now i have lost it. If i find it i will do a video on it and share.

We need the support because the cap is based on wholesale prices that are historical. They are still high but not as high as they were. I think that support will go in the summer but I hope they will stop the 20% rise. My main point is there is no need to pay higher prices now when wholesale prices are lower.

It isn't for everyone. It does take some thinking.

If I have understood correctly there are 2 different caps at play here and we pay the lower of the 2. Please do feel free to correct me if anyone knows I have tis wrong.

It used to be less often but now every quarter Ofgem announce the price cap for the next quarter, In November they announced Jan-Mar is going to be set at a household average of £4,279 annually as this is based on the markets leading up to then. This is not what we have been paying though as the second feature, the government’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) which was set until April at £2500 so that is what we payed, and also each household had (at least in theory) £400 extra support.

We know that the EPG is going up to £3000 from April so we know that is the maxiumum it will be, on 27th Feb Ofgem will announce their number and if that is lower than £3000 then that lower figure is what we will pay. Wholesale prices have dropped so it is still possible that will be a lower number but it looks like at the moment it may well be about the same as the £3000.

3 months on from that for the following announcement it is looking more likely to be a lower number and likewise the following 6 months when we head back into winter. Lots can change but there is some hope.

Exactly BUT the prices you refer to that lower the cap are happing NOW in the wholesale energy market you just have to wait for them as the wave, that is the energy price cap, is based on previous wholesale prices which were higher than they are NOW.

The tracker tariff looks at day-ahead wholesale prices and your tariff reflects that NOW!!
They change each day.

Have a look at this graph the drop is where we are NOW and what you would pay NOW compared to higher prices further up the graph. If you stay on a SV tariff you are paying those higher prices.

Here is the graph.