Should we fix or not? Really struggling to work this out.

[whatshouldIdo2022]

Electric only, we have oil heating. Estimate we use 3500 kwh a year but could be less. Been offered a fix at 66p pkwh and 30p standing charge until September 2023, £100 exit fee. They want £180 a month, current DD is £99 but we'll probably stop the DD and pay for what we use either way. Also we'd have the £66 off a month or whatever it is. We can afford it but obviously like everyone else we also kind of can't afford it- but we'll have to. DP doesn't want to fix. He says it will cost more in the long run but he also does zero research into subsequent rises next year and is focusing on this October's price cap rise only. I've tried working out the maths of it but I just can't do it and becoming increasingly stressed trying to work out what's best. Does anyone have any advice please? Goes without saying we will be trying to cut down usage but with WFH it won't be that easy.

If you go on the Martin Lewis website that will show you what the predicted price rises are likely to be for the variable rate, October and next April so you should be able to roughly work out what it would cost you on the variable rate compared to the fixed rate you have been offered. Bear in mind though that even on a fixed rate you are still charged for the actual amount of electric you use, so your dd could go up or down.

Our electric/gas didn't go up that much in April. We were paying £129 a month on a fixed rate before then went on to the variable rate and are paying £165 a month. So not too bad an increase and we are still in credit.

I've just sat down with my usage figures, a few online calculators and a pen and paper. My current fix ends on October 6th, so just in time for the next price rise.
My predicted cost on the new October cap was around £340 a month or £4000 a year. Factoring in the predicted 50% rise in January, I'd be at £520 a month for my highest use months and with another 23% in April, I'd be up to £645 a month. Even with a slight drop in July, the total over the year would be around £6,200.

I was offered a fix starting when my current one ends (so just after the new cap comes in) of £415 a month, or around £5,000 for the year. So although it's more per month to begin with, I'd be saving over £1k over the year. No exit fees as it's my existing supplier.

Would have been £500 cheaper if I'd taken the fix they emailed me on Monday, but I have only just had the time/energy to sit down and work it all out. We can't afford the increase as it is, never mind the fix, but I haven't factored the £400 reduction into it yet and we should also get the cost of living payments.

*all maths was done roughly.

I realise I've done it on DD amounts, not kWh usage, but my DDs are based on accurate readings. I could calculate predicted costs using last year's actual daily usage (I have it all on a spreadsheet) but I've had enough depressing maths for one day!

We're in a similar position @RagzRebooted. End of fix first week in October. Could have fixed at £390 a month on Monday. Coming off fix onto flex was £200 a month until the cap announcement. Did fix today at £430 a month. It's a gamble but given predictions worth it. Can't believe we'll go from £120 a month to £430. No idea how we will actually pay this.

@soupmaker yes almost exactly the same. We're currently paying £145 a month! It's going to be a huge jump. Fixing makes sense, but it is going to hurt! I think the £400 government discount takes £60/70 a month off? Will still be around £350.

It's not the DD that's fixed - it's the cost per unit- I think some people are under the misapprehension that if they fix- that's it- they use as much as they want. The DD is based on what they estimate under your current useage will cover it off

I realise most people know this but I think a few don't. I heard someone talking about in town who clearly didn't quite get it.

What will your rate be if you don't fix?

Yes @Crikeyalmighty I get it. We already run a cool house and the thermostat is being turned down again.

@NotDavidTennant standard variable so price cap. I've done some sums and think it isn't going to save us much if anything as we'd be paying 66p per kwh through September compared to 28p which basically wipes out any saving next year based on my calculations. I wish they would talk about the price cap in terms of price per unit, it would be a hell of a lot more helpful.