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See all MNHQ comments on this thread

To ask if we’re heading for another lockdown?

653 replies

TreeLine6 · 09/10/2022 11:32

So covid cases are rising and like clockwork, the likes of independent sage are back in the media calling for ‘protections’ like masks, isolation and social distancing to “avoid full lockdown”.

Is it time to reintroduce some measures like the rule of 6, a cap on large events numbers and maybe distancing and early closure for hospitality as independent sage are calling for?

Personally I feel that with vaccines and treatments, we are now in the best position we’re going to get with covid and would be very reluctant to comply with further measures, that themselves cause enormous harm.

OP posts:
Mascia · 10/10/2022 07:54

LovinglifeAF · 09/10/2022 20:36

If I saved just one person from getting Covid by wearing a mask it will be worth it. I have Covid right now and am freezing and shivering despite a house full of heat. I am miserable and now cannot have the booster until a certain time has passed from testing negative. Someone passed it on to me, someone who was infectious and refused to wear a mask. Very selfish

god, what drama. Have you never had an infectious illness before?

I agree.
I had a bad cold years ago and was freezing and shivering under several duvets and blankets.
Not saying Covid is like a cold, but some people seem to forget how heavy colds/ flu can knock you out, not just Covid.

FamilyTreeBuilder · 10/10/2022 07:55

Some parts of the country were comprehensively fucked over for months on end.

And Scotland. All of Scotland.

20 March 2020 - all hospitality closed UK wide.
15 July 2020 - partial reopening of indoor hospitality in Scotland
25 September 2020 - 10pm curfew introduced in hospitality
7 October 2020 - hospitality restricted to 6am to 6pm, not allowed to sell alcohol. All hospitality closed completely in Central Belt.
26 December 2020 - everything closed again.
20 April 2021 - open again.
20 December 2021 - return to 1 metre social distancing. Large events and concerts cancelled.
24 January 2022 - distancing in hospitality removed

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2022 07:55

youkiddingme · 09/10/2022 21:39

I think what we need are genuinely effective masks for the vulnerable and in particular for those who cannot have vaccines, or for whom they don't work. We also need research to find which masks are most effective. Not just for those still heavily affected by covid, but because this won't be the last pandemic to hit the world, and because those with compromised immune systems could be better protected from a whole range of infectious diseases.

Ironically we need to accept the converse.

We need exposure to viruses to a certain degree. Why? Because we don't get immunity from living in sealed bubbles. We get immunity from fighting viruses. Research suggests that exposure often gives us partial protection from other viruses that we have not yet had.

Even with vaccines, what they found was the vaccine reduced the severity of the illness but did not stop it. People who were vaccinated and then caught covid had much higher levels of immunity than those who were only vaccinated. This helps protect them for longer against the most severe aspects of covid. Each subsequent wave is getting smaller in where it peaks contrary to what the media noise seems to suggest.

China which hasn't been exposed to covid and has vaccines which are less effective is caught in a trap of lockdown because its population is much more vulnerable to covid at this point.

Children aren't at particular risk of covid but we know that their immune systems have to be exposed to various things to protect them later in life. There seems to be an issue with a small number of children from lockdowns: they weren't exposed to normal viruses when they were very small as expected. That's had a knock on effect where they believe a number have suffered hepatitis because of this lack of exposure. The research is still ongoing but shouldn't be ignored.

The lesson we learn from the pandemic is that lockdowns are necessary initially, but are also harmful. They have to be short and used sparingly alongside other measures until we develop other ways to manage a pandemic. We then have to gradually reduce protective measures because the closure of society and even restricting the spread of common viruses is detrimental to us. There are some people who are particularly vulnerable who need protection for longer but indefinite protection is also not useful for them in the long term either in most cases. If they are so frail that they won't survive a virus then they probably haven't got long left and you need to consider quality of life. Is being isolated a good thing.

Where there is an exception is people who are temporarily immunocompromised. There is a legitimate reason to protect them but the onus has to be on them isolating not the other way round due to the need for exposure.

This paradox over exposure to a 'healthy amount of virus' is a hard one to get your head around and difficult to balance but it does exist and is as important as vaccines. It's poorly understood so hopefully the pandemic will give us some data we can learn from.

This isnt advocating for a 'let it rip' strategy. It's realising timing is crucial and we need to do better in future to get that timing better to allow us to bridge the gap between the emergence of a pandemic and the development, manufacture and distribution of vaccines and the knowledge of how to treat people more effectively to save the most lives.

We also need to realise that some countries are always going to be more at risk and less able to isolate quickly because of how they are connected to the world. The uk is not NZ. We can never adopt the same strategy because we have very different factors to consider. We also have to be aware that greater inequality and lower numbers of health care staff will also leave a country more vulnerable.

There is no perfect solution. People will die in pandemics. We can work to reduce this, but lockdowns do not stop this - we are seeing the knock on effects now with people dying prematurely because treatment for other things have been so delayed.

Its deeply complex and I do wish the 'we need another lockdown' crowd would remove their heads from their own backsides to see that.

Morph22010 · 10/10/2022 08:01

TheMoops · 10/10/2022 07:23

Some parts of the country were comprehensively fucked over for months on end. Leicester and Bolton in particular, all of Greater Manchester at a later and earlier time. Some of those places were locked down and forgotten about while the rest carried on oblivious.

People forget about this. In fact, many people didn't acknowledge it at the time. I remember being told I was lying when I explained that my part of greater Manchester had additional restrictions.

Leicester almost became the forgotten city when it didn’t come out of the first lockdown when rest of the country. I did sometimes cynically wonder if it was due to it being the constituency of the shadow health secretary

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 08:07

YY @FamilyTreeBuilder, the discussion so far has focused on the various English rules but the Scottish hospitality sector was absolutely fucked over by restrictions for months on end too.

I live in one of the English areas that got to be the guinea pig for why regional restrictions didn't work, and I felt so sorry for the venues having to deal with the constant restrictions outside the lockdown period. Obviously Scotland got the brunt of that.

GM in summer to autumn 2020 was another particularly ridiculous example. Keeping up with those changes was a full time job in itself. Our two locals are both wet pubs, who suffered more than those with kitchens and food. They're still open now, they survived, but then they did both have pretty regular and by all accounts lucrative lock in options available during the second lockdown. That probably helped.

Mascia · 10/10/2022 08:14

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 09/10/2022 20:52

Speaking as a fervent and crowing Remainer, it's true that there are problems stemming from restrictions rather than Brexit.

The limitation with furlough was that it wasn't available during all the periods when there were restrictions. If a venue was open but having to fund reduced numbers due to rule of six, tiers, or any of the various halfway measures, that could have a massive impact on profitability without the corresponding ability to furlough staff.

Agree. I‘ve always opposed Brexit, but it’s important to listen to actual business owners rather than just blame Brexit on their behalf.
Several local businesses are family owned, they struggled because they couldn’t open at all/ only at limited capacity.
On the other hand our favourite local pubs seem to be fully staffed right now (despite Brexit) and running smoothly while being quite busy.

CoffeeWithCheese · 10/10/2022 08:19

Morph22010 · 10/10/2022 08:01

Leicester almost became the forgotten city when it didn’t come out of the first lockdown when rest of the country. I did sometimes cynically wonder if it was due to it being the constituency of the shadow health secretary

Leicester got completely and totally shat on throughout. I don't think it would have got the same treatment if it was a wealthy, predominantly white city in the south of England.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 08:26

Leicester got completely and totally shat on throughout. I don't think it would have got the same treatment if it was a wealthy, predominantly white city in the south of England.

It was very telling which areas were the guinea pigs for obviously doomed to fail regional restrictions.

I know London got the Tier 4 thing in Christmas 2020 which was awful, but there's a reason the concept of local restrictions was introuced when it wasn't going to impact on south east England. None of which is to say the Tories give a shit about ordinary people in the south east either. Only that because it's a place where important people happen to live whereas GM and Leicester are not, we were acceptable collateral.

x2boys · 10/10/2022 08:42

CoffeeWithCheese · 10/10/2022 08:19

Leicester got completely and totally shat on throughout. I don't think it would have got the same treatment if it was a wealthy, predominantly white city in the south of England.

And Bolton ,I live in Bolton we got extra ,extra restrictions at one point , I rarely go out anyway so pubs and clubs being closed didn't really affect Me personally ,but at one point we were on a ridiculous postion of venues just outside of Bolton being open and venues in Bolton being closed ,but it was daft anyway Bolton is a large town people go in and out of Bolton to work etc short of building a wall around us the tier thing just didn't work.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 08:43

GM hospitality being restricted and sometimes closed while people just went to neighbouring counties instead was such a piss take.

FamilyTreeBuilder · 10/10/2022 08:46

Did you have that "not leaving your local council area" rule/law in England? For a large part of 2021 we were legally not supposed to be leaving our very small council area on the outside of Glasgow for non-essential reasons.

You were "allowed" to travel for school, healthcare, work. But not for shopping or leisure. So it was illegal for me to drive 5 minutes in one direction to Morrison's because it was in another council area, perfectly fine to drive 20 minutes in the opposite direction to Asda. Bonkers. And mostly completely ignored.

Mascia · 10/10/2022 08:48

Regarding pubs offering takeouts during lockdowns - I do wonder how much business loss they actually managed to compensate that way.
Socialising is a big part of pub culture. Going out for pints and a pub meal with friends and family is not the same as getting a sad lockdown takeaway.
Most people might have done it a couple of times to support their local, but I wonder how much business pubs actually generated that way.

x2boys · 10/10/2022 08:50

FamilyTreeBuilder · 10/10/2022 08:46

Did you have that "not leaving your local council area" rule/law in England? For a large part of 2021 we were legally not supposed to be leaving our very small council area on the outside of Glasgow for non-essential reasons.

You were "allowed" to travel for school, healthcare, work. But not for shopping or leisure. So it was illegal for me to drive 5 minutes in one direction to Morrison's because it was in another council area, perfectly fine to drive 20 minutes in the opposite direction to Asda. Bonkers. And mostly completely ignored.

I can't remember now but were definitely not supposed to go to pubs ,clubs etc out of Bolton, but then my dh was allowed to work in a large warehouse technically in bolton, but lots of his colleagues live surrounding town, s ,it made no sense.

hellcatspangle · 10/10/2022 09:03

Absolutely not. The economy is fucked as it is (and I say that as someone who has a close relative who's CEV). I don't even think the majority of people would comply if they attempted to impose it.

2022again · 10/10/2022 09:08

FamilyTreeBuilder · 10/10/2022 08:46

Did you have that "not leaving your local council area" rule/law in England? For a large part of 2021 we were legally not supposed to be leaving our very small council area on the outside of Glasgow for non-essential reasons.

You were "allowed" to travel for school, healthcare, work. But not for shopping or leisure. So it was illegal for me to drive 5 minutes in one direction to Morrison's because it was in another council area, perfectly fine to drive 20 minutes in the opposite direction to Asda. Bonkers. And mostly completely ignored.

my mum lives in Wales on the border with England and her "village"/suburb straddles both countries with the supermarket sited in Wales and the post office and pharmacy in England (at opposite ends of the main street) .....which meant that the rules stated neither set of residents was allowed to visit those facilities in the "other" country. This meant elderly people would have to get a 20+ min bus ride to reach equivalent facilities rather than walk 5 mins down the road! I think when you have very obviously stupid rules like this it made it less likely to comply with the more important ones.

Jackienory · 10/10/2022 09:12

I know Covid admissions are rising sharply and I have a meeting with our emergency planning group. I noticed the maintenance guys were preparing to reopen two wards that were closed for refurbishment as I came in this morning - unusual they were in that early. And there’s something going on it the car park too. Areas being marked off. Guess I’ll find out later. Who ever invented full strength coffee has my eternal gratitude. The NHS wouldn’t survive without it.

Mascia · 10/10/2022 09:19

SilverGlitterBaubles · 10/10/2022 07:06

Some people seem to really relish the idea of another lockdown, forgetting that it caused so much damage to peoples mental health, physical health due to cancelled operations and appointments, older people in care homes without visits from family, missed education which teachers are still trying to catch up on, businesses already hanging by a thread. Why would anyone want to go there again?

Some people seem to disregard any mental/ physical issues if they weren’t caused by Covid.
In our family, we had two children struggling badly with their mental health after the lockdowns and the schools being closed.
One elderly relative’s mental and physical health steeply declined due to isolation and not being able to see their family and meet up with their friends.
On the other hand, we didn’t have a single case of severe Covid in our extended family, despite there being several clinically vulnerable people.
I know, it’s just anecdotal evidence, but the issues the lockdowns caused mustn’t be ignored.

RainStalksMyWashing · 10/10/2022 10:06

@Mascia most people can see the harms of lockdowns, but some people do dismiss them. People dismiss all sorts of stuff for various reasons. There will probably always be some who won't acknowledge the harms of lockdown and some who won't acknowledge the harms of covid - kids have been treated exceptionally poorly on both counts. Hope your children are doing better now.

MintyFreshOne · 10/10/2022 10:18

The risk for China is supply chain difficulties not Coronavirus lockdowns

Those lockdowns pretty much killed small businesses in Shanghai and wherever else they were implemented.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 12:31

Did you have that "not leaving your local council area" rule/law in England? For a large part of 2021 we were legally not supposed to be leaving our very small council area on the outside of Glasgow for non-essential reasons.
You were "allowed" to travel for school, healthcare, work. But not for shopping or leisure. So it was illegal for me to drive 5 minutes in one direction to Morrison's because it was in another council area, perfectly fine to drive 20 minutes in the opposite direction to Asda. Bonkers. And mostly completely ignored.

No we never had that particular idiocy, and even in lockdown there was no specific rule about how far from home you could go for shopping or exercise.

I think in later 2020 when there were the local restrictions it may have been law rather than guidance that we weren't supposed to move from Tier 3 areas to lower restriction areas to access hospitality, would have to check though. Either way it was widely ignored and shockingly enough, hospitality venues in neighbouring areas didn't take on responsibility for enforcing it either. I went to pubs and restaurants in neighbouring counties who had more lenient rules loads of times. Would've liked to be able to support our local ones too, but the performance of the charade was apparently more important.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 12:35

I think when you have very obviously stupid rules like this it made it less likely to comply with the more important ones.

Yes, this is the worry. That insisting on obviously stupid and/or failed policy undermines trust.

It's a big reason why people who want to reintroduce measures we already know have failed like masks and isolation are in the wrong: because there's a wider picture too. How people respond to public health messaging in the future is one of the things we need to take into consideration when looking at pandemic management and messaging now.

BitOutOfPractice · 10/10/2022 12:40

Forfukzsake · 09/10/2022 12:00

I am prepared to stay away from others if I have coronavirus and to get annual boosters.

I will not do anything else at all willingly. I will not support another lockdown or wrecking the lives of our young people again or anything that tries to stop people living or socialising or having hobbies or getting an education or spending money or making money or accessing health or social care or maintaining their mental health.

This. I will have my booster. If I do get it I’ll stay at home. I will not support any other measures. I will not comply with a lockdown again (not seeing my mom or kids or friends or family). I just won’t do it. And I don’t know anyone who will.

I speak as someone who followed every rule to the letter in 2020 and 2021. But no more.

BeethovenNinth · 10/10/2022 12:55

I’m in Scotland

hospitality hasn’t really recovered. I don’t believe younger children’s immunity has. Anecdotally I know several older teens who haven’t coped well

no more restrictions or “lockdowns” (what does that even mean?), ever, ever again

shinynewapple22 · 10/10/2022 15:43

@NancyDrooo I think the people who are now the longest time since having booster jabs are those age 50-65 without other health concerns as this group would have had them earlier than younger people last year but, although will be entitled at some point this Autumn, we can't book them yet (in my area anyway).

GoldenOmber · 10/10/2022 16:58

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 10/10/2022 12:35

I think when you have very obviously stupid rules like this it made it less likely to comply with the more important ones.

Yes, this is the worry. That insisting on obviously stupid and/or failed policy undermines trust.

It's a big reason why people who want to reintroduce measures we already know have failed like masks and isolation are in the wrong: because there's a wider picture too. How people respond to public health messaging in the future is one of the things we need to take into consideration when looking at pandemic management and messaging now.

Yes, and I think people forget that trust also gets lost when something presented as short-term gets dragged on and on and on, whether or not it 'works'. "It's only for a short time!" becomes "just until everyone gets vaccinated" becomes "the pandemic isn't over just because you're bored" becomes "well I don't see the problem with permanent masking rules on public transport, who wants to breathe dirty air."

In central Scotland, our autumn 2020 restrictions were introduced as only for 16 days. At the end of the 16 days, we had a new tier system in place that kept most of us in them for another few weeks. At the end of that few weeks, the tier system got reviewed and kept... and so on, and so on, from October (I think?) until some time in April. This was something of a pattern in our government's approach. "We're only keeping schools closed for an extra two weeks" in December 2020 was a particular high point. (And, really, not just the government - anyone still calling for masks/mandatory isolation/whatever at this point is effectively calling for it forever.)

So if tomorrow, a worldwide Bloaty Head Disease plague strikes Britain and anyone says "let's do this thing for a little while as a public health measure," I'm going to be less likely to go along with that than I would have been a few years ago because I'm inevitably going to think: yeah, that's what you said last time. I am pretty sure I am not the only one. Which is not going to be great for mitigating the Bloaty Head Disease pandemic or indeed anything else.