@Bluebeach
Hi, I checked and sorry I got my wires crossed about Israel - they are ploughing on ahead with a fourth booster for the over 60s and healthcare workers. Vaccination for kids is in line with elsewhere.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00010-8/fulltext
The vaccine roll out for 5-11 only really got going circa last November. Here's a list of where most countries stand.
www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/countries-vaccinating-children-against-covid-19-2021-06-29/
As yet it would be too early to go boosting kids so there is no data for what you're concerned about. The safety profile for Pfizer in kids was assessed via this study. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2116298
And again the U.K. rationale for going forward with this age group is here.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/jcvi-update-on-advice-for-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-5-to-11/jcvi-statement-on-vaccination-of-children-aged-5-to-11-years-old
The vaccine development process usually takes about 10-15 years. www.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/articles/vaccine-development-testing-and-regulation
However, for the Covid vaccines, much of the technology involved has been around long in excess of this (30yrs), it's just a matter of redefining the recipe as such. And also, huge volumes of research were already going on into vaccine development for SARS and MERS which are closely related. The amount of MONEY has also been key - I've seen a lot of people have their research funding wiped because the money has been redirected towards Covid - the financial clout, man power and effort has been huge. By comparison to what other vaccines have had to contend with, it's Samson vs Goliath. Also, with Covid the initial variants encountered don't kill the vast majority of adults and the infection has been raging around like a wild fire so that gives scientists tonnes of opportunity to have field trails etc. - it's ethical, and you have a bonanza of infections to see what the effect is. With things like Ebola, the outbreaks are sporadic in nature with comparatively lesser numbers of people involved, and the fatality rate averages 50% (25-90%), so often it isn't ethical or plausible to run the trails for quick vaccine development.
Here's a great article explaining why the process was so accelerated for Covid vaccines.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03626-1
With regard to repeated vaccination, again it is too early to draw definitive conclusions. When you look at things like flu where there are annual vaccinations, you can see waning effectiveness over time and things like immune exhaustion being discussed, whilst other studies have shown response to be boosted by prior vaccine history. So results are inconclusive, though are generally in agreement that it's better to go ahead with repeated flu vaccination than have none at all (we're still waiting on the expected flu pandemic!!). The science is currently unclear around the 4th covid jab for the general population here (many other articles available) www.dw.com/en/covid-do-multiple-boosters-exhaust-our-immune-response/a-60447735
In the short term while the pandemic is ongoing and threat unclear (next few years), frequent boosters could be a plausible strategy but going forward I think they will probably limit the vaccines to vulnerable and elderly as with flu unless the pathology induced changes radically.
"If your child has had covid and had it without terrible symptoms, could you conclude that covid is an even smaller risk to them as you know your child is not in the % of children that gets it badly, plus they have a level of natural immunity"
I don't think you can conclude anything about covid from the external symptoms seen. Now that the longitudinal studies have begun and they're doing tests/scans of adults and kids etc. it's showing that even those who were asymptomatic can have long term issues, scarring of the lungs evident and so forth. Whereas some who were hospitalised come out fine with no long term problems.
The British Society for Immunology prepared a pretty nifty infographic which explains the difference between naturally acquired protection vs. vaccination.
www.immunology.org/coronavirus/connect-coronavirus-public-engagement-resources/covid-immunity-infection-vaccine
Reinfection risk is higher following a natural infection
www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-natural-immunity-what-you-need-to-know
Finally, and this is important, be very cautious - what your kids may have experienced previously with covid cannot be extrapolated to future potential infections, for two reasons.
- The severity of infection depends on complicated interactions between the host, virus and environment none of which are constant in time. For instance developing the infection in the first place depends upon the dose, the number of exposures involved and individual ability to cope; you need to reach a threshold to develop the infection. You can use an analogy of alcohol to explain this; a few beers (low dose: e.g. breathing in covid particles at supermarket) every Wednesday is probably grand, a bottle of absinthe (high dose: e.g being a close contact of multiple people shedding covid at high titre) on a daily basis probably not great! A tonne of other factors are involved as well - some constant, like your childs sex, others not so such as if they have another infection at the time.
This paper explains the various factors leading to different clinical outcomes.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7934673/
- The virus is constantly evolving, what we see today is not necessarily what will occur tomorrow. General consensus is that there will be Covid waves over the next 2-3 years (as the virus is nowhere near controlled worldwide and it is getting lots of opportunity to evolve). There is about a 20% chance that an emerging variant will be worse than anything seen thus far.
Sage papers discussing potential scenarios and what to do about it, the second more positive than the first.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1054323/S1513_Viral_Evolution_Scenarios.pdf
Various papers on the evolution going forward.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve/
Review of the epidemiological and clinical features of coronavirus infections in kids
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716978/
Various papers generally discussing the pros and cons of vaccination in children
www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099%2821%2900339-X.pdf
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14760584.2021.1951245
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01898-9
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pai.13401
adc.bmj.com/content/107/3/e1
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02423-8
I know making this decision is difficult for a lot of people, and the communication of science in the media has been pretty rubbish which hasn't helped. It was easy for me as our whole family are vulnerable.
I hope the above helps you understand it all a bit better and helps with your decision. Have a quick look at the links that interest you, focus on the abstract of any scientific paper, discussion and conclusion for more info if you need it. x