@PaddlingLikeADuck and anyone else interested.
Completely correct that vaccinated people can transmit covid, however they are significantly less likely to be infected in the first place, so in this way transmission is reduced.
www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298
Long term effects of covid are as yet not fully elucidated but studies have shown a significant percentage circa 10% of those infected (whether asymptomatic or not) do have long term health complications i.e. 2% reduction of grey matter, increased dementia risk, scarring of the lungs, heart and liver. This often can’t be seen without specialised testing i.e. MRI/ Xenon gas scans etc. which will not be carried out unless patient presents with severe symptoms. It is likely young kids will recover well given time, however the extent of this isn’t yet quantified.
Studies funded by UK and US governments amongst others are only just underway and results will not be publicised and appear in the media until 2026.
www.gov.uk/government/news/185-million-to-tackle-long-covid-through-research
www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/long-term-study-children-covid-19-begins
Health benefits for vaccination for the majority of children according to the bmj are small when considering covid alone. However, when factoring in disruption to education and risk of lockdown this is what swayed JCVI to recommending vaccination for kids.
Indirect negative effects of covid/lockdowns are: 17% fall in diagnosis childhood cancers with survival outcomes reduced, eating disorders doubled, lost education leading to reduced attainment/reduced earning capacity/reduced quality of life and life expectancy; detrimental mental health outcomes; increased autism referrals; reduced exposure to everyday pathogens through lockdowns leading to reduced immune functionality which will lead to higher negative outcomes/fatalities and ill health long term.
A final factor to consider is the long term evolution of the virus, as we are still mid pandemic. The current variant is pretty mild in terms of pathology, but global vaccination rates are still suboptimal giving scope for antigenic shift and drift. With vulnerable elderly and adults vaccinated this pushes evolution towards those not vaccinated. You can see my links in previous post above re. evolution and scenarios which may lie ahead. Admittedly it is looking more positive than 6 months ago but we won’t know until winter really which way it’s going to go.
Personally I got my child vaccinated, because he, DH and myself are vulnerable. I want him to be able to go to school without disruption. Data showing long term negative outcomes of covid is stronger than data showing negative outcomes of vaccination. And I want some protection for him so he isn’t a rabbit caught in headlights should a crappy variant emerge.
Anyone considering vaccination should weigh up the above, stick to reading science and not newspapers for advice and not feel bullied either way. I hope this helps x