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Do you think that at times what we have referred to as ‘the science’ has got it wrong?

386 replies

MarshaBradyo · 20/02/2022 17:43

I’m thinking about the many times people said well it’s going to go badly wrong and the science backs this up

But a few times this hasn’t happened

July opening
Omicron and not doing ‘circuit breaker’ and not ending in lockdown
Not getting close to best case for omicron

And so on - maybe other examples

What do you think - was it unnecessarily pessimistic?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/02/2022 16:58

@LyricalBlowToTheJaw

The impact on children was also vastly under estimated - again because we had no previous comparibles to use as a baseline.

Up to a point RTB. Some problems were underestimated because we just didn't want to think too hard about them in case we didn't care for the answers. It's stating the bleeding obvious that kids aren't going to do well when the ones who have abusive and/or inadequate parents are expected to stay at home with them without the usual protections of school and routine. There didn't need to be direct experience of lockdown for that to be clear.

True.

But its invisible. And that made it easier to ignore. Abused children don't have a platform to advocate for themselves.

Scared adults were happy to turn a blind eye to a certain extent.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 16:59

Thank you for these posts

They get very close to how I feel. I’m going to come back later to read properly when I have a moment

OP posts:
LyricalBlowToTheJaw · 23/02/2022 17:07

True.

But its invisible. And that made it easier to ignore. Abused children don't have a platform to advocate for themselves.

Scared adults were happy to turn a blind eye to a certain extent.

Yes, this is 100% true. It was about what and who the state chose to prioritise.

noblegiraffe · 23/02/2022 17:10

What is being missed there, is that the UK recognised that there were children who needed to be in school, children of essential workers, children with EHCPS, and vulnerable children. Other countries had no provision for them at all, schools were completely closed.

Yes there were (sometimes major) issues with implementation there, however to say that the issues were ignored is untrue.

LyricalBlowToTheJaw · 23/02/2022 17:25

Actually, it isn't being missed. It's being recognised that this attempt at provision didn't alter the reality that one, it was always clear that lockdown would have a significant detrimental impact on vulnerable children in particular and that two, this wasn't emphasised because ignoring it was more convenient.

These things are facts. The imperfect attempt to allow a small cohort of DC with certain already recognised and documented problems school places doesn't alter any of that. Nor does some other countries having done even less.

Emergency73 · 23/02/2022 18:10

@noblegiraffe

I agree with you.

Something really doesn’t sit right with me at all here with these phrases - “children being ignored/scared adults turning a blind eye/we didn’t want to think hard about them.”

I’m not saying harm wasn’t caused. It was. But there wasn’t a general theme of ‘let’s ignore the needs of children’. Provision was made for the vulnerable children at the schools I know. The issues faced by vulnerable children WERE there before lockdown - and it’s THIS that needs to be tackled.

I don’t like this idea that everything was happy and rosy for vulnerable children before lockdown, that they were never ignored before lockdown - and lockdown has CAUSED it all. It’s shone a huge spotlight on it - yes.

A child being abused - do you blame it on the abuser? Or do you blame it on lockdown? Because if you blame it purely on lockdown that is not the way to the root of the issue. It’s THIS that frustrates me.

noblegiraffe · 23/02/2022 18:13

What the 'schools should have never closed, it was terrible for vulnerable kids/mental health/education' people never follow up with is an explanation of what should have happened beyond that basic statement.

March 2020 in schools was awful. Parents were taking their kids out left, right and centre. My DD's school closed before the official closure due to lack of staff. The mood in schools was grim, kids and staff were incredibly stressed. Very, very little learning was achieved in those last couple of weeks before schools closed. The kids being kept at home? I can't even remember if they got set work.

The idea that schools remaining open meant happy kids skipping off to to a place of safety where they'd receive a good education is balls. And what of the impact on efforts to reduce covid?

The full re-opening in September....well, my opinion about opening schools and pretending that covid didn't exist in them is well-documented on here. That ended in disaster. Should schools have closed again? We should never have been in the position where covid in schools was so badly managed that they had to.

As for schools being open now. Some people certainly seem to think that schools open mean that the problems with mental health in kids, disrupted education, kids with SEN not being catered for, kids in abusive homes are now all over. Couldn't be further from the truth, and yet now schools are open, those concerns about kids seem to have disappeared unless it's to simply say 'schools should never have closed because of those kids'.

PrinceYakimov · 23/02/2022 18:15

There have been a few catastrophically bad calls by govt science advisers (and some very good ones, but that's not what you asked).

The first science mistake was that all the underlying technical planning for a respiratory infectious disease epidemic was just wrong. It was based on the idea that you could mitigate and manage the spread of an epidemic virus through the population without lockdowns (what later became known as a 'herd immunity' strategy - which I think is a slightly misleading name, but it is clear that the original strategy was a mitigation strategy, not the suppression strategy we ended up with). However nobody had worked through the implications of this for the NHS until we saw the healthcare system breakdown in Italy. There was no possibility this kind of strategy could ever have worked, even for 'flu, without a total NHS collapse because the numbers of people needing hospital care would always have been too high. This could and should have been recognised in all the years we had to plan for this. My guess is that public health planners also assumed that suppression would be politically unpalatable - but crucially this was not their call to make and they should always have had a suppression option on hand for ministers instead of ruling it out at the planning stage. This is a very tragic example of why officials shouldn't build political judgements into their technical advice.

The costs of this underlying mistake were very high, because it meant that we moved straight into implementing a suppression strategy without having time to plan it properly. All social distancing/lockdown rules had to be thought up and implemented at lightning speed, and that inevitably meant that all the moral and practical implications of lockdowns were not thought through properly.

The secondmistake was the scientific assumption that there would be no asymptomatic transmission. This was what the decision to discharge people from hospital into care homes was based on, and this had all-too-well-known tragic results for some of the most vulnerable people in the country. This was again a totally avoidable mistake (there are plenty of viruses that transmit asymptomatically) where scientists should have been more conservative.

Thirdly, the risk of new variants and the risk they posed to vaccines - the speed of the emergence of Alpha in late 2020 caught scientists totally by surprise and we are simply lucky that vaccines have worked against every variant so far.

Finally, the modelling. I think the modelling was correct at the start, but then it is always easiest to model an epidemic at the start. As time has gone on, I think it is clear that there is some fundamental transmission dynamic of the virus that we don't understand. This is why still none of the modelling explains the sudden drop in cases from the summer peak last year.

Some of the messaging, particularly on Covid being airborne, has been pretty bad, but that is more of a science communication problem rather than a problem with the scientific consensus itself.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:21

Re children I’d say as a group they are vulnerable, not just the sub section which are undoubtedly more so - as in they have no agency or voice and how this is addressed in a pandemic when other groups are more powerful is very important.

Society ie adults found it easy to prioritise their needs at the cost of this group.

Chris Whitty was probably the closest we had to an advocate but it was limited

OP posts:
Emergency73 · 23/02/2022 18:24

I’m still desperately waiting to hear what we should trust over scientific consensus - taking into account rapid change. I’d like to know which ‘science’/scenario would have a better chance of tackling a viral pandemic and why.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:27

@Emergency73

I’m still desperately waiting to hear what we should trust over scientific consensus - taking into account rapid change. I’d like to know which ‘science’/scenario would have a better chance of tackling a viral pandemic and why.
As I responded it has always been a balance between different needs

Social and economic costs are part of the equation.

OP posts:
noblegiraffe · 23/02/2022 18:31

Still not saying what should have happened, Marsha

Those vulnerable kids need a voice NOW. I've banged on enough on MN about how CAMHS is in crisis, we're incredibly short of teachers, SEN funding, pupil premium funding has been cut and the covid catch-up provision is a useless heap of shit, and dear god I wish I could get the engagement there was when it was suggested that kids should wear masks or whatever. Plenty of people concerned about vulnerable children then seem to have vanished.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:34

What should have happened?

I would have used the summer 2020 to get all children back

Kept them in in Autumn, without ‘blended learning’ which we did tg although much criticism

And used more if the R budget in Jan to April 21 for education, for all children not just the high rates of KW / V

OP posts:
noblegiraffe · 23/02/2022 18:35

I would have used the summer 2020 to get all children back

Great. What about covid?

GoldenOmber · 23/02/2022 18:36

But there never was a ‘scientific consensus’ on the best exact range of society-wide measures to tackle a pandemic.

Prof A the virologist can’t tell you about the mental health of kids. Prof B the sociologist can’t tell you about household viral transmission. Prof C the nutritional epidemiologist can’t tell you about how to make sure childhood vaccines still go ahead in lockdown or during a national covid vaccine rollout. Prof D the behavioural psychologist can’t weigh up the costs and benefits between protecting nursing homes from covid and depriving dementia patients of friends, family and the outside world, even just in terms of health. And neither can anyone else, because partly that’s about values not about one scientific truth we just have to uncover.

Everyone can give part of the picture, but it’s absolutely right that the overall society-wide decisions should be made by elected politicians based on that information, not by some Twitter grifter with a PhD who’s now presenting himself as an expert on everything under the sun.

Emergency73 · 23/02/2022 18:36

@MarshaBradyo

Which we appear to be focussing more on now, as apparently hospitals can cope.

But I’m the midst of an outbreak of an out if control virus, which science should we trust? Any science? No science? Only economic needs?

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:38

@noblegiraffe

I would have used the summer 2020 to get all children back

Great. What about covid?

What about it? Confused

Hospitalisation was very low.

I’m amazed anyone would not choose to prioritise education but I guess we’ve been there a thousand times before.

OP posts:
Emergency73 · 23/02/2022 18:39

@GoldenOmber

So consensus to me would have been NHS guidelines - not focussing on just 1 expert or one opinion.

noblegiraffe · 23/02/2022 18:41

What about it?

You know, covid. That spiralled out of control in schools when they reopened with no attempts to curtail it.

You can say 'prioritise education' but you have to explain how you would have dealt with covid in schools, because pretending it didn't exist didn't work.

Emergency73 · 23/02/2022 18:41

@MarshaBradyo

How can you purely focus on education when a virus is out of control? Children need healthy teachers/adults/healthy infrastructure/healthy community/functioning hospitals in order to support them.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:42

[quote Emergency73]@MarshaBradyo

Which we appear to be focussing more on now, as apparently hospitals can cope.

But I’m the midst of an outbreak of an out if control virus, which science should we trust? Any science? No science? Only economic needs?[/quote]
The CMO and CSA have been excellent

Bar one or two things, but I’ve pretty much aligned with their views

I think Whitty did realise the impact of school closure and the harms hence schools open became a priority

Alpha was a nightmare but again we should have had more dc in.

And Whitty will always say my views (and figures that underpin them) are part of an overall picture which includes economic and social costs - it’s a very nuanced position he knows well but the public doesn’t always get

OP posts:
GoldenOmber · 23/02/2022 18:42

[quote Emergency73]@GoldenOmber

So consensus to me would have been NHS guidelines - not focussing on just 1 expert or one opinion.[/quote]
But that’s what I’m saying - there aren’t “NHS guidelines” for how the government should manage a pandemic. What do you think an eye surgeon could tell you about, say, whether furlough is worth the cost or not? There has never been one single scientific consensus about how to manage something as massive and complex as this which affects so many parts of our society.

MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:43

@noblegiraffe

What about it?

You know, covid. That spiralled out of control in schools when they reopened with no attempts to curtail it.

You can say 'prioritise education' but you have to explain how you would have dealt with covid in schools, because pretending it didn't exist didn't work.

Hospitalisation was very low summer 2020

We wasted the opportunity to use that low stage for more education

We made the mistake re variant impacting education further and dropped the ball re what children needed

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 23/02/2022 18:45

@GoldenOmber

But there never was a ‘scientific consensus’ on the best exact range of society-wide measures to tackle a pandemic.

Prof A the virologist can’t tell you about the mental health of kids. Prof B the sociologist can’t tell you about household viral transmission. Prof C the nutritional epidemiologist can’t tell you about how to make sure childhood vaccines still go ahead in lockdown or during a national covid vaccine rollout. Prof D the behavioural psychologist can’t weigh up the costs and benefits between protecting nursing homes from covid and depriving dementia patients of friends, family and the outside world, even just in terms of health. And neither can anyone else, because partly that’s about values not about one scientific truth we just have to uncover.

Everyone can give part of the picture, but it’s absolutely right that the overall society-wide decisions should be made by elected politicians based on that information, not by some Twitter grifter with a PhD who’s now presenting himself as an expert on everything under the sun.

Exactly - very well put

People became enthralled to Twitter and ‘the science’ and lost the important complexity of the situation

OP posts:
LyricalBlowToTheJaw · 23/02/2022 18:55

@noblegiraffe

What the 'schools should have never closed, it was terrible for vulnerable kids/mental health/education' people never follow up with is an explanation of what should have happened beyond that basic statement.

March 2020 in schools was awful. Parents were taking their kids out left, right and centre. My DD's school closed before the official closure due to lack of staff. The mood in schools was grim, kids and staff were incredibly stressed. Very, very little learning was achieved in those last couple of weeks before schools closed. The kids being kept at home? I can't even remember if they got set work.

The idea that schools remaining open meant happy kids skipping off to to a place of safety where they'd receive a good education is balls. And what of the impact on efforts to reduce covid?

The full re-opening in September....well, my opinion about opening schools and pretending that covid didn't exist in them is well-documented on here. That ended in disaster. Should schools have closed again? We should never have been in the position where covid in schools was so badly managed that they had to.

As for schools being open now. Some people certainly seem to think that schools open mean that the problems with mental health in kids, disrupted education, kids with SEN not being catered for, kids in abusive homes are now all over. Couldn't be further from the truth, and yet now schools are open, those concerns about kids seem to have disappeared unless it's to simply say 'schools should never have closed because of those kids'.

I thought you'd do this.

The point being discussed was that it was actually very clear in March 2020 that school closures would have an awful impact on children, particularly vulnerable ones, and that there didn't need to have been previous experience of lockdown for this to be bleeding obvious. It was therefore simply a question of what was prioritised. As has been the case with much covid policy. The negative impact on children doesn't fall into the category of things we couldn't have understood at the time, though RTB's point was otherwise very good and some of the problems associated with restrictions genuinely couldn't have been predicted.

You can actually be in full support of school closures in the first lockdown whilst accepting this point and not attempting to muddy the waters. It isn't an inherently anti-lockdown argument, and indeed people who consider that it was definitely the right decision should be willing to own the reality that school closures did cause harm and that this harm was foreseeable.

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