Another one?

[ElliotGoss]

I thought as a rule varients got weaker to help them spread faster!

Just saw that and thankfully from Sage so it’ll be the exact opposite going on their accuracy for predictions so far.

whats the next mutation then? has someone got it?

or are they just making one up?

This reads like a tabloid headline. Is it?

I'm going to guess that this is one of the situations where SAGE's job is to model for various possibilities, one of which would obviously be a more lethal variant. It doesn't mean it's what they think will happen though.

As a rule, it helps them, but viruses don’t have brains so they can’t control what variant they’re becoming. It just so happens that weaker variants will survive longer while more deadly ones would burn out quicker. The virus isn’t deliberately choosing to become weaker though. It’s all just chance, which is not helpful for us humans

Ebola is one that’s almost too deadly to be a good virus as it makes the host too ill to effectively transmit to large numbers, but it hasn’t become any weaker to combat that (that I know of).

Just don’t talk about Reston

Also the photo you attached looks like hyperbolic nonsense! The word “could” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there! I mean, then next variant “could” give me shiny, luxuriant hair like off of a Timotei advert but I’m not banking on it

I think it is largely 50/50 based on chance if the mutation becomes more or less deadly. It’s so contagious in the early days of the infection that it doesn’t really matter too much if the host dies or not.

I thought as a rule varients got weaker to help them spread faster!

You thought wrong, I'm afraid.

Covid is infectious before symptoms show, so there is no evolutionary pressure to become milder - it doesn't matter whether or how fast it kills its host because it has moved on. There's also no particular imperative for it to become more severe.

But there is for it to become more transmissible, and to evade immunity.

@GirlInACountrySong

No, just what “could” happen. We could also be invaded by aliens or the terminators could overthrow the human race, doesn’t mean it’ll happen though!

Cracking source if actual reliable news.

@ElliotGoss

I thought as a rule varients got weaker to help them spread faster!

The news articles mentioning this are from July 2021 (though some date from January 2021) Why are you posting it now?

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-new-variant-kill-one-in-3-sage-study-b948565.html

In the next hundred years or so there's going to be 100s of variants it's called evolution and with how quickly viruses multiply....

But this is a maybe/could be/might scenario its just as possible that the opposite could happen. We can't continue pissing millions away on testing and isolating for evermore just in case. Sage appear to only be concerned about Covid, not where the money is coming from.
Expect many more such soundbites as we approach Johnson making the announcement that testing and isolation will stop. Much as we've had for every reduction in restrictions.

I'm afraid that Sage has cried wolf too.many times now for the majority of the population. We've been fed overly gloomy predictions that simply haven't come to fruition. Pretty sure that if we hadn't locked down before Christmas we were meant to have had 4000 admissions a day, hospitals and morgue overwhelmed. When in reality we had a short sharp peak that didn't come close to the numbers forecast and since then numbers in hospital and on ventilation have reduced steadily (we're actually at the lowest number on ventilation since 03/07/21)

@PAFMO
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10527921/Now-SAGE-warns-Boris-weeks-bonfire-Covid-rules.html

I thought as a rule varients got weaker to help them spread faster!

FFS, there are no fixed rules.

The next variant could go either way.

When will people accept we can't predict, so we have to be prepared to react. That is why we need to keep some testing and sequencing, so we can react quickly to AVOID future lockdowns.

I think there were a couple of “experts” in the early days of covid that stated that mutations often result in a less deadly virus. And people seem to have really latched on to this as fact. It’s difficult to dispel myths once they take hold.

@ElliotGoss

I thought as a rule varients got weaker to help them spread faster!

No that’s not correct. Variants don’t have to always be milder than the one before them. However, as omricon spreads so easy and efficiently, it is less likely for a new, more severe symptom causing variant to push out omricon and replace it. If a new variant is more transmissible and IF it is also severe then it can we can end up with a situation like that in the OP article. That’s a lot of IFs!

@Kizty

I think there were a couple of “experts” in the early days of covid that stated that mutations often result in a less deadly virus. And people seem to have really latched on to this as fact. It’s difficult to dispel myths once they take hold.

Especially when they are what people want to hear!

Well I'd love to see where the daily mail are linking that from because I can't find it.

As always, SAGE outline various possibilities of viral evolution in the medium term.

The media then cherry picks the best/worst case, based on what their current agenda is (here it seems to be generate hate against SAGE scientists?)

In the most recent minutes, they outline four potential scenarios, but none of them involve what is being claimed in that headline

www.gov.uk/government/publications/academics-viral-evolution-scenarios-10-february-2022/academics-viral-evolution-scenarios-10-february-2022

Would generally be interested if anyone knows what document the DM is quoting?

@BewareTheLibrarians

As a rule, it helps them, but viruses don’t have brains so they can’t control what variant they’re becoming. It just so happens that weaker variants will survive longer while more deadly ones would burn out quicker. The virus isn’t deliberately choosing to become weaker though. It’s all just chance, which is not helpful for us humans

Ebola is one that’s almost too deadly to be a good virus as it makes the host too ill to effectively transmit to large numbers, but it hasn’t become any weaker to combat that (that I know of).

Just don’t talk about Reston

Also the photo you attached looks like hyperbolic nonsense! The word “could” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there! I mean, then next variant “could” give me shiny, luxuriant hair like off of a Timotei advert but I’m not banking on it

Is Timotei still around? 🤔

@FishFingerSandwiches4Tea The government won’t tell you this, but Timotei was actually deliberately removed from the world a few years before the pandemic, leaving us to suffer with dull, lank hair. For years. Why? So when the “Timotei hair” variant of covid appears, everyone will drop masks, social distancing and testing in a desperate effort to catch the virus and have amazing hair. A win for us, and a win for the virus!

I mean, it’s no less bonkers than any of the other covid conspiracy theories

[quote BewareTheLibrarians]@FishFingerSandwiches4Tea The government won’t tell you this, but Timotei was actually deliberately removed from the world a few years before the pandemic, leaving us to suffer with dull, lank hair. For years. Why? So when the “Timotei hair” variant of covid appears, everyone will drop masks, social distancing and testing in a desperate effort to catch the virus and have amazing hair. A win for us, and a win for the virus!

I mean, it’s no less bonkers than any of the other covid conspiracy theories [/quote]

Timotei? I loved Timotei!