China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

[greenteafiend]

I'm over here in eastern Asia (though not in any of the above three countries/territories), so am watching with a keen eye. However, what happens here will ultimately affect us all, for reasons related to politics and to supply chains.

Interesting article here, with the provocative take that the world needs China to continue with its zero COVID policy for quite a while yet, because otherwise the impact on supply chains could just be too much too bear. Also, China's hospital provision has very very little slack in it. I just can't see it being safe for them to start opening up the way things are. There has also been some disturbing news in the past few days that the "Sino" vaccines have almost no effect against omicron. If this is true, China will have to roll out its own mRNA vax all over again--or swallow its pride and use imported ones?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/what-china-s-covid-zero-policy-means-for-world-supply-chains-and-inflation?sref=LXBP7gc1

Hong Kong meanwhile, having had an extremely successful pandemic for the first half, is running into trouble as cases top 600. Very very low vaccination rates among its elderly. All very much bound up with the politics going on there. Reports of food shortages going on now. It all looks very touch and go.
www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/11/238670/'Unbearable-consequences'-if-HK-shifts-Covid-tactics

Taiwan is still holding strong, but is also facing dilemmas about how and when to start gradually opening up. Taiwan also has faced issues of many elderly people refusing the vaccine. But a big surge of cases and deaths will pose serious problems for the world tooquite apart from Taiwan's political significance, it is also where a very high % of the world's semiconductors are made-the lifeblood of so much of the modern economy.

Somehow, looking at all this, I feel that the worst of price rises and supply chain issues may be yet to come!

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/vaccine-hesitancy-among-taiwans-elderly-mars-pandemic-performance/

Thanks greenteafiend. Very informative post

I don't really understand the thing about hospital provision in China. I've also heard that they don't have much slack and would struggle to treat people if Covid spread. However, in my experience people go to (and stay in) hospital at the drop of a hat there for conditions which you might not even get a GP appointment for in the U.K.

My understanding is that anyone who gets covid there at the moment is sent to either hospital or a quarantine facility. So I'm just wondering if they were to adopt a U.K. approach and only admit patients who were very unwell whether they would still struggle for capacity.

It's a little while since I was in China, but my impression is that there are big disparities between rural and urban provision. China's cities have modernized at a really fast pace, but provision in the countryside and small towns has been really, really basic when I was there. I had to be treated for dystentary when I was there, yikes! My main memory was of me and about eight other patients all standing or sitting in the same room and the doctor trying to treat or advise us all at the same time, with everyone hearing everything that was going on! Admittedly, this was in one of the poorer provinces of China and it was about eight years hack, but still. hmmm. I think a big wave will cause significant difficulties.

Ah thanks, that makes sense. My experience is mainly limited to tier one cities and I hadn't considered the less developed areas.

Your experience sounds pretty horrible! I've managed to avoid medical treatment in China but have heard some funny/shocking stories from others, especially around a complete lack of privacy during examinations.

I wonder whether the Chinese vaccines are poor at preventing transmission and symptomatic illness for omicron (which no vaccines are great at) or poor at even preventing serious illness. If it's the former, then that no great concern. If it's the latter, then that's very concerning.

@belimoo China doesn’t have a primary care (GP/community heathcare) system like the UK, so all care is delivered via hospitals. It’s why people go to the hospital for conditions we’d see our GP for, like a chest or urinary tract infection.

I wonder whether the Chinese vaccines are poor at preventing transmission and symptomatic illness for omicron (which no vaccines are great at) or poor at even preventing serious illness. If it's the former, then that no great concern. If it's the latter, then that's very concerning.

It's not too clear. The sources I have seen talk about "no neutralizing antibodies" being produced against omicron when people have been vaccinated with Sinovac. That said, immunity is about more than antibodies; maybe T-cells are trained in some way, preventing serious illness.

Politically, though, there will be a lot of panic in China if there is mass spread, even if serious cases are not all that high. The population has been taught to associated covid with intense fear and even personal shame. That's going to be tricky to manage.

@boatyardblues thanks, I hadn't realised that, despite spending plenty of time there! People I know there have also seemed to stay in hospital overnight for things which would be deemed unnecessary here (not saying either is right), so I just wondered if the expectations for receiving in-patient care are generally higher.

I'm so intrigued by how things are going to pan out and what the government's plans are. It seems impossible to pursue their zero covid policy forever but I can't see what the alternative is, especially given the population's feelings about the virus, as pp has said.

Yes, Japan is the same. Hospitals provide primary care, no GPs.

The HK situation is getting bad. If cases get out of control it is going to get serious because so many old people are completely unvaccinated or have had only the sino crap. Part of me is struggling to feel much sympathy for all those old folks who have refused the vaccine for a year, despite having a choice of Sinovac or Pfizer. HKers have been held hostage by the vaccine refusers.

@user1477391263

I wonder whether the Chinese vaccines are poor at preventing transmission and symptomatic illness for omicron (which no vaccines are great at) or poor at even preventing serious illness. If it's the former, then that no great concern. If it's the latter, then that's very concerning.

It's not too clear. The sources I have seen talk about "no neutralizing antibodies" being produced against omicron when people have been vaccinated with Sinovac. That said, immunity is about more than antibodies; maybe T-cells are trained in some way, preventing serious illness.

Politically, though, there will be a lot of panic in China if there is mass spread, even if serious cases are not all that high. The population has been taught to associated covid with intense fear and even personal shame. That's going to be tricky to manage.

Very interesting point. We do see this mentality sonetimes in the West of course, but nowhere near to the same extent.

Waving from the land of the Hamster Cull, Hong Kong! It is indeed crazy here at the moment.

Today's 'you couldn't make it up' story is the sewage testing which has condemned large areas as Compulsory Testing Zones, leading to queues of 5-6 hours or more to get a test, all the time standing next to people who have potentially got the virus. We're all just waiting for the Compulsory Testing Order for standing in the queue....

What you say about the health system is true, there is a culture of going to hospital for the slightest thing, it's not culturally a place you take a paracetamol and stay a home. So then there is limited capacity when its as wide spread as this potentially will be, hence the draconian lock downs and obsession with Zero Covid. The flip is the horror of some housing, sub divides, cage homes etc - truly truly awful to consider the implications for some either as lock down, or if the virus raged through the city.

And in turn yes this will massively impact production, supply chains - etc - its not just whether the item was made in Greater China, but if the item made somewhere else has components made in Greater China - as you mentioned a lot of tech components (semi-conductors, transformers, circuit boards), electric and mechanical parts, vehicle parts, etc.

So pretty much a shit show... (as you can tell been a rough few days over here )

Sorry just want to add the article on HK quoting China state media Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily, don't forget this was also very much a slap on the wrist for HK daring to suggest a deviation from China's Covid policy. The last 3.5 to 4 years since the protests have been a series of punishments from Big Brother in the North, so HK's policy is very much not driven by science or medical logic, and very much driven by politics.

So yes it would be bad to move from Zero or Dynamic Zero, given vaccine rates and hospital capacity, but that wasn't what drove this week's state media article.