Is the pandemic over for good?

[Ashleighz88]

Is the pandemic finally over for good? I really can't see it getting worse again now Or am I naive?

Ok I'll try to digest that, might be later before I'm able to.

I know 2 people with breathing issues from covid. Yet some people who don't wear masks purposely come up to you and cough in the shops to frighten you as they think it's a hoax.

This is a different type of graph on tracking mutations that maybe explains it better. The centre would be the 'wild type' (original Wuhan strain). As you can see, Omicron has two significant strains. BA.1 (the one now) and BA.2 which is taking over BA.1 in some countries, Denmark for example. You can see that Omicron has more distance from the others. This is mainly because it has more mutations

Sorry haven’t read the full thread but wanted to link to this piece by Andre Goddard one of the vaccine creators at Oxford

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/25/vaccines-best-weapon-covid-boosters?fbclid=IwAR0sPYGpItmq56PvQheWrKZ0g0Zw1hMSCuoII76YhwB60Xcis8WbXEiMU1U

In essence - severe disease now limited in UK and better treatments /ongoing protection for the vulnerable - but globally ongoing, the world needs vaccination

Sorry should read piece by Andrew Pollard

He also cautions that we should be better prepared for next pandemic (whenever that may be in ours or our childrens lifetimes)

I recall Sarah Gilbert talking about the severity of disease reducing not so much down to virus mutation but our increasing immunity.

In terms of plenty who want them to stay for as long as needed that’s where the disagreement comes in.

As restrictions were to mitigate against a health crisis once that threat of overwhelming healthcare has passed the cost / benefit changes and since many are not cost free they are no longer used.

Depending on where you feel on the risk level this might be welcomed or not.

Most people aren’t high risk so the situation changes pretty quickly after the threat passes

Bogroll has good posts on costs that do get minimised

@Flaxmeadow

Well I can't make head nor tail of that chart, so you're going to have to do more explaining.

It is a kind of family tree of significant mutations. The colours represent each mutation, Alpha, Delta etc
As you can see, each mutation does not follow on from the last one, but rather originates further back in the tree

So Omicron did not spring directly from Delta for example.

This is believed to because Omicron has been developing for many months from an ancestral strain in someone who was immune-compromised, similar to Alpha.

The main source of game-changing variants doesn't seem to be lack of vaccination across the world, but the ability of those with poor immune systems to brew variations over a long period until the point one of these becomes more transmissible.

Given that such variants can't kill their already vulnerable host whilst developing into a new form, that seems to be a good sign that the variant shouldn't morph into anything too virulent... though of course nothing is guaranteed.

I find these posts and threads really interesting.

You have measured posts from people saying it's not over, we may, have another variant requiring some restrictions.

Then you have a load of posts

"It's over - yay!"
"On in Mn are people hysterical about covid".

It's the matter lot who actually show more fear in a psychological sense. Everyone knows it's not over. Everyone knows we still have a pandemic as who have not yet downgraded it. Everyone also knows we are working towards no restrictions and the few remaining ones (testing and isolating) are the only legal ones standing.

But they also know in large groups etc and some places you have risk assessments putting limitations on activities we did pre covid.

It's a displacement. Calling cautious people hysterical is such a reaction you have to question the fear in those peoples minds to cause the extreme reaction.

The same as "it's over - yay!". What's going on in peoples minds to be so dismissive of something that they know hasn't gone away and know isn't over. Are they trying to convince themselves?

But quite simply. No - the pandemic isn't over. Yes - we may have times we need to consider if we need restrictions. But we are moving into the stage where historically pandemics have been shown to burn out and become epidemic and endemic. Pandemics historically have lasted 2 years (but that's a guess for covid as it's a different type of virus) and usually the milder strains that become more infectious are a sign it's burning out (but again this is a different type of virus).

One thing I thing we can predict for certain is however awful this is people won't be discussing humans like they do dinosaurs in years to come

I find these posts and threads really interesting

I find the whole Covid board fascinating. Some of the stuff people believe.

@Sparklingbrook

I find these posts and threads really interesting

I find the whole Covid board fascinating. Some of the stuff people believe.

Indeed And the "experts " from the we are all doomed camp and covid ,what pandemic camp 😂

You have to admire the experts in both of the extreme camps for their confidence banging on about the pandemic being over/not being over, and being unable to listen to anyone saying otherwise.

I don't think people are necessarily all using the same definitions of pandemic and over, either. As with so many things relating to covid, there are different understandings of terminology.

@VikingOnTheFridge

I don't think people are necessarily all using the same definitions of pandemic and over, either. As with so many things relating to covid, there are different understandings of terminology.

True and mostly I’m talking about restrictions rather than the virus

Amd keeping in mind it takes votes on getting those to stick

Pandemics historically have lasted 2 years (but that's a guess for covid as it's a different type of virus)

This keeps getting said but where is the evidence? The Black Death certainly lasted longer than 2 years. What's magical about 2 years?

And all viruses are 'different', not just this one.

@Adeleskirts

Op globally technically not quite, but yes this is the end of it now. Who will change classification shortly.

Are you a Health professional?

@MintJulia

None of us has a crystal ball but....

• Looking at history, epidemics seldom last more than 2 years.
• In UK/US/Europe, vaccination levels are fairly high
• A good proportion of the population has already caught covid and therefore has some natural immunity
• the current variant is generally causing less severe illness

So, no, it isn't over but personally I think it'll move to an endemic stage, where it's low level but circulating permanently. We'll learn to live with it. There will be a periodic updated vaccine as with flu.

They usually last 4 years. Herd immunity is nonsense as you can catch it again. Also the whole world needs to be vaccinated before we're safe. And we're a very long way from that.

True and mostly I’m talking about restrictions rather than the virus

Amd keeping in mind it takes votes on getting those to stick

It certainly does. Do I think this is close to over, are governments going to try and keep/introduce restrictions to try and manage it and how might people respond to this are three very different questions. Each could potentially form a substantial answer to the OP.

@luckylavender

Also the whole world needs to be vaccinated before we're safe. And we're a very long way from that.

I'm a big supporter of vaccinations, and we absolutely should be doing more to vaccinate people in low income countries, but I don't see how vaccinating the world
makes us "safe".

Covid has showed itself quite able to evade vaccines and spread with ease.

[quote treeflowercat]@luckylavender

Also the whole world needs to be vaccinated before we're safe. And we're a very long way from that.

I'm a big supporter of vaccinations, and we absolutely should be doing more to vaccinate people in low income countries, but I don't see how vaccinating the world
makes us "safe".

Covid has showed itself quite able to evade vaccines and spread with ease.[/quote]
I always thought this a handy line more than anything that meaningful

@treeflowercat - it's an accepted fact that we're not safe until everyone is safe and that new variants will develop more easily in an unvaccinated population.

They usually last 4 years. Herd immunity is nonsense as you can catch it again. Also the whole world needs to be vaccinated before we're safe. And we're a very long way from that.

Two years in and the vast majority have either had or been exposed to Covid, plus the benefit of vaccines especially for more vulnerable. It's not a novelty to our immune systems like it was in the first place. Usually repeat infections tend to get milder.

Historically, Europeans, living in more urban environments were used to living with colds and flu. They can have repeat infections. They can even sometimes be serious or fatal, but at a population level their immune systems were (and still are) well exposed and generally cope. When explorers and settlers went off and exposed the more remote indigenous people of the "new world" those illnesses were "novel" and therefore more serious. Immune systems adapt and learn to cope better with time and exposure even if it's an illness that mutates and reoccurs.

"Safe" is a false state to aspire to. We can't be "safe" from infections that are spread without contact and can be transmitted before symptoms show. New Zealand's shut itself off from the world for two years plus having the usual array of restrictions, and vaccinations but it still can't guarentee "safe".

They usually last 4 years. Herd immunity is nonsense as you can catch it again. Also the whole world needs to be vaccinated before we're safe. And we're a very long way from that

Logistically, we cannot vaccinate the World, its a myth.

2 doses 3 months apart, followed by a booster... which may be needed every year.

This is why i'm not optimistic its over.

[quote luckylavender]@treeflowercat - it's an accepted fact that we're not safe until everyone is safe and that new variants will develop more easily in an unvaccinated population. [/quote]
Alpha and Omicron are believed to have developed in people who were immuno-compromised... The idea that the world being vaccinated will somehow stop variants is fanciful, and seems to be a case of over-reach from vaccine enthusiasts (of which I am one), and that can can only be counterproductive.