Will cases continue to decrease?

[Florelei]

We are dropping the WFH and leaving masks to be optional. Does anyone know if the modelling shows that cases will continue to decline?

I’m hopeful that pretty much everyone has had it recently so there’s not enough people to infect for cases to skyrocket.

I’m not convinced they are massively dropping that much outside London? They have just changed the guidance and reduced the number of PCRs?
Our cases per 100,000 here are the highest they have been throughout the entire pandemic (North west, as per school newsletter on Monday this week).

I thought LFTs were counted? I’m in the NE and a few weeks ago pretty much everyone I knew had covid. Now the numbers are reducing.

They will soon go back up and there will be more work meetings with wine and cheese.

I think it's only data from PCR results. I'm NE and seems to have dropped massively for our postcode but I know there is more cases now than before especially at DDs school.

I think it could be tricky in areas where the timing of the ripple out from London mean that cases are still rising.

The gamble is that this wave has plateau'ed or begun to ebb in enough of the country that the reduction will mask any increase (temporary, one hopes) arising from changing restrictions

I think that easing restrictions is a political move rather than one based on science, so who knows.

And no, I don't want perpetual lock down before anyone asks.

Hope so

@frenchiemummy92

I think it's only data from PCR results. I'm NE and seems to have dropped massively for our postcode but I know there is more cases now than before especially at DDs school.

Reported LFT tests are definitely included in the totals. For example, yesterday's dashboard shows 1.37m tests were carried out with 430,000 of these being PCRs.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

Short term the drop has already slowed I believe. I think any major drops now may be due to seasonality but we’ll have to wait and see. It’s going to be a lot harder to unpick once testing and isolations are phased out completely because hospitalisations and surveys are going to be the only indicators of spread.

I think we’re going the right way though even if I do think that it’s going faster than the ideal, I would like to see a significant period of stability before withdrawing community testing for instance.

@frenchiemummy92

I think it's only data from PCR results. I'm NE and seems to have dropped massively for our postcode but I know there is more cases now than before especially at DDs school.

Sorry to disappoint but testing numbers are still very high and LFTs are included.

I don’t know anyone that’s officially reporting lft results. All the schools and work places seem to be just taking your word for it or a photo of the test.

LFTs are only counted if people report the results though. Many people may be testing positive but not reporting them on the website. It means it's hard to keep track of how many cases there actually are. Hospitalisation data will be a better indicator.