Death numbers - how are they calculated?

[Twizbe]

Watching the news last night and DH wondered about this.

The number of daily deaths said it was of people who'd died within 28 days of a positive test.

If someone tests positive, isn't poorly and recovers in a week or so, then 26 days after the positive test they are hit by a bus and die, are they included in the stats?

No. It’s only cases where covid is recorded on the death certificate.

I think we'd know if almost 150,000 people had been hit by a bus in the last 22 months given that total road traffic accidents are usually only about 1200 a year.

The 28 day measure is useful because it's quick, but the true covid death toll will always be higher.

Wasn't to start a debate, was a question. I'm not saying every death hasn't been covid just wondered how they were decided.

So on the news is it just 28 days with covid mentioned on the death certificate or is that a different stat to the one you showed?

@Twizbe

Wasn't to start a debate, was a question. I'm not saying every death hasn't been covid just wondered how they were decided.

So on the news is it just 28 days with covid mentioned on the death certificate or is that a different stat to the one you showed?

Yeah, the news reports the 28 day figure.

Death certificates and coroners reports etc take quite a lot longer.

The ones announced daily are people who died within 28 days of a positive test, irrespective of the cause of death. So yes, that would include people who were hit by a bus on day 27.

Separately, ONS release figures for deaths with Covid on the death certificate. That’s includes people who died of Covid more than 28 days after their positive test.

The second figure has consistently been higher than the first figure. That’s what you need to remember when someone says “ah, but did they die WITH Covid or OF Covid.”

In addition, you can get figures for excess deaths compared to the average of the previous 5 years. That encapsulates people who died as a result of the pandemic but not of Covid, E.g. because they didn’t/couldn’t access treatment for some other condition. There are times when that number has been negative, e.g. in the first lockdown, deaths in road traffic accidents reduced significantly.

In summary, it is complicated.

I believe that the answer is yes they are counted but people being hit by buses is so vanishingly small that it isn't skewing the figures

I don't know if it's still available but earlier in the pandemic there was loads of info online about how all the various stats come about

It's actual counting rather than calculating I beliee.

Thank you, that's answered my question. We were just wondering when watching the news the other day.

You are correct but it's a quicker measure than waiting for the official causes on death certificate

so, then 26 days after the positive test they are hit by a bus and die, are they included in the stats?

1. yes, they are counted in the "within 28 day" stats. You're splitting hairs to object to this tiny effect, given that some true from-covid deaths are > 28 days, anyway. This number can easily be updated daily or near-daily so is good idea of what's happening most recently. Early Covid death counts didn't limit to 28 day boundary & that was a major problem.

2. The ONS summary is different, that looks at stated causes on death certificates. This runs about 10 days behind real time.

3. Then there are 'excess death' statistics. Excess over forecast/long term trend, adjusted by age.

If you ever work for NHS, U discover dozens of ways to count the same thing.

The ones announced daily are people who died within 28 days of a positive test, irrespective of the cause of death. So yes, that would include people who were hit by a bus on day 27.

So you could have a positive covid test on day 1 and 26 days later die in a car crash. That would counted as a Covid death?

Yes BluBells while someone who got covid diagnosis, went to ICU a week later, and died after 7 weeks after a ventilator they won't appear on the 28day-death count but should appear on the ONS death certificate count (belatedly).

No system is perfect and consistent AND as quick as possible.

The " hit by a bus" scenario goes nicely with the "admitted to hospital with a broken leg but happens to have covid"

Used by many to deny that covid kills or causes hospitals to be overwhelmed.

The 28 day cut off means there are many people who die of covid after 28 days who aren't counted. This figure is available as explained by a pp.

Just to be clear, there was no other agenda to this question.

It was just something that DH and I were wondering.

Question answered thank you.

I believe that the ONS figures count those death certificates where Covid is mentioned in Part 2 though as "deaths involving Covid" and these are added to the figures - I'm not sure that's helpful.

Part 1 of an MCCD (medical certificate of cause of death) gives the condition or sequence of conditions leading directly to death, while Part 2 gives the details of any associated conditions that contributed towards the death but are not part of the chain of causation.

For example, someone could have died from 1a) aspiration pneumonia and 1b) dysphagia (difficulty swallowing) caused by 1c) stroke (ie the stroke caused the swallowing issue which in turn caused the aspiration pneumonia) - then in part 2) the doctor adds eg. Frailty of Old Age (if over 80) and Covid (if they feel that the generalised frailty and Covid infection contributed towards the decline but did not necessarily cause the death.

Sorry for messy example but it's the first one that comes to mind! In the scenario above, I'm not sure that it's useful to include that death in the Covid statistics - a lot of doctors will mistakenly add all the co-morbidities they are aware of to an MCCD and not necessarily just the ones that contributed towards the death. (I run a medical examiner service and we advise doctors on causes of death prior to their completing the MCCD)

My personal opinion is that it would be preferable if the ONS only counted Covid deaths included in part 1 for greater accuracy.

Yea it counts if you were knocked over by a bus. More seriously however a lot of people currently are catching covid in hospital or going into hospital for another matter and testing positive on arrival. And die of all kinds of things. They are all counted as covid deaths.

Not sure about deaths but currently two thirds of “covid admissions” are for people who are in because of covid.
Another third have covid but are in for other reasons.