If workplaces are planning on a 25% absence rate then how on earth are we all expecting schools to carry on as normal ?

[Timetobuckup]

I have just been reading in the BBC website that the gov are telling businesses to plan for a quarter of their workforce to be absent .
There is no way schools / colleges will manage with that amount of staff out.

I work in a secondary school and had a pcr this morning , my teen ds is positive and I am keeping fingers and toes crossed I am negative but not holding out much hope.
We are doing mass testing on Tues and I am really interested to see how many have to go home.

The same as every other organisation with 25% workforce out - with great difficulty!

The problem is a huge problem and absolutely not unique to schools! Worst case scenario, they could close. Worst case scenario if a care home has only 75% staff or a hospital..?

Isn't the 25% worst case scenario? I guess we just hope it doesn't come to that.

I work in manufacturing, it's skilled manual work so you can't just get temps in to cover. We have had a few Covid outbreaks and it severely delayed production for about a year, we're only just catching up.

In early years settings numbers of children will have to be restricted or the qualified staff ratios temporarily reduced. Recruitment is already a nightmare and there aren't agency staff available. But if children can't come in, parents can't go to work.

Its going to be very very difficutl isnt it.

If schools have to send 1/4 kids home then parents may not be able to work in other sectors as well as the 1/4 out of those sectors. Its going to be.... interesting.

Supply agencies will be begging retired staff to cover! I'm sorted as covering a long term non-covid absence, but I know my agency is looking for more!

I think you are absolutely right @Timetobuckup. Added to this, it's not just the teachers we should be looking at in schools. It is the premises team, the cleaners, the first aiders, the people who have the fire marshal training. It is very possible that individual schools will hit various crunch points where they might have just enough teachers but not the other key staff that make schools safe working environments.

It is going to be a very bumpy 6 weeks.

We had a higher % off than that last term. Teaching went mostly by thr wayside and became more like babysitting in some yeargroups.

And as per usual they are telling us this 2 days before schools are due back in.

@Mickarooni yes care homes and health settings as well.

Just seems such a throwaway article with little sense of urgency on how it will bugger us all up.

I can see those left standing being pulled in all directions and fire fighting, juggling classes, being moved into larger classes, kids mixing more to ‘keep them in school’

I doubt much ‘educating’ will take place.

@BluebellsGreenbells

I can see those left standing being pulled in all directions and fire fighting, juggling classes, being moved into larger classes, kids mixing more to ‘keep them in school’

I doubt much ‘educating’ will take place.

Agreed. Priority will be given to the exam classes - and rightly so. But my Year 9 DS and his peers will be left to struggle on through.

They won’t be able to, I’d expect lots of partial closures, smaller settings and those with strict child: adult ratios will be worst affected. However at some point soon omicron will run out of people to infect right? Next month will be difficult but it should get better quite quickly.

It won’t be 25%

I imagine school resources will be targeted at exam years in secondary and the younger years in primary with everyone else having rolling closures.
The knock on effects of that will be bad enough before you add in covid absences.

Rejig classes? I wish people would stop fucking panicking over every goddamn thing... let's start focusing on solutions.

Last term some year groups closed at our local school when teachers were off with covid, presumably the same will happen-partial closures and learning from home if needed. In some ways it’s easier to manage than other sectors as there is the option to move temporarily online, there will also be a high % of students off isolating.

at some point soon omicron will run out of people to infect right?

^^

@TerraNovaTwo

Rejig classes? I wish people would stop fucking panicking over every goddamn thing... let's start focusing on solutions.

Solutions should have been provided to our chikdren by our Education Secretary and the DfE- but we have been here before huh?

Id actually rather online school but with regular classes and organised classes than lots of changes and babysat classes etc.

We struggled in the fortnight leading up to the hols - we had 30% of the staff off for a few days and it was hell. In the olden days, we would combine classes in extreme circumstances but, of course, we can't do that if we're supposed to be in bubbles.
I was so, so tired at the end of last term and was really looking forward to a rest over the holidays but I've spent the holidays not sleeping as I'm so worried about what is going to happen when we go back.
It's not going to be fun.

Massive problem. Been teacher shortages for years which the government have done nothing about. Terrible working conditions pay freezes real time pay cuts .....

We're not. Schools need to plan to operate at 25% capacity, as other organisations are being asked to do. Nothing will be "as usual" in schools or elsewhere.

The one "advantage" schools have is that they can expect that at times of high staff absence they will also have high student absence, so fewer students to cater for. The other public sector organisation can expect the same or higher demand on their services.

In some ways it’s easier to manage than other sectors as there is the option to move temporarily online, there will also be a high % of students off isolating

How is it easier? If reception children are sent home that’s 30 per class that need an adult to look after them - how will that effect the 25% target for the other sectors?

@PersonaNonGarter

It won’t be 25%

Some schools hit that in December.

However it's not as easy as saying 25%. That's 25% nationally in all sectors which could mean 75% out in one area and only5/10% out in others.

Local outbreaks will cause the biggest problem.

We've had hospitality near us going down to minimal table service on a prebook basis due to shortages but are up and running fully staffed again. As poster above said that should mean it's it because those staff shouldn't be reinfected any time soon.

Supermarkets will have emptier shelves but the staff will do what they can. Our local Aldi staff have worked so hard to fill selves and keep the queues down. I've felt sorry for them as management are constantly barking at them publicly but they are each only one person.

Rail and bus services have already been affected. This will in turn affect school pupils and workers.

But health and social care are just being screwed over again (alongside education) it's not the 25% off ill currently that's the issue. It's all those leaving and I don't blame them.

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