Why they relaxing the rules on isolation and under 5's when cases increasing?

[OriginalM]

It doesn't make sense when they say they are trying to avoid lockdown but won't hesitate to bring more restrictions in and basically saying we are screwed but then change the rules overnight about the isolation cut to 7 days and the under 5's don't have to isolate.

This is just sensible adjustment to a set of measures. Why wouldn't you want sensible adjustment?

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/21/dose-hopium-could-drop-hospital-admissions-lead-us-omicrons/

Cases may already be plateauing? That would be good news.

Staff shortages that's why.

Public services, shops etc need employees back at work.

Even Heneghan in that article says he expects cases to rise again (?when kids go back?)

@oldwhyno

This is just sensible adjustment to a set of measures. Why wouldn't you want sensible adjustment?

Is it a sensible adjustment when we have a new, more infectious variant?

I haven't found any data suggesting omicron is less infectious than delta after day 6/7, the data seems likely to have come from earlier variants.

I can see why this might be expedient in some ways though.

I just read a thread from a sensible, cautious scientist in Twitter explaining why someone who has had 2 negative tests on days 6 and 7 is very very unlikely to be infectious.

could you link to it please?

Because infection is front loaded, you are very infectious before you even get symptoms and for the first 48 hours, then declines by day 5 many show negative on a lft.

I can't see anything about under 5's anywhere

I thought under 5s didn't have to isolate if they are a close contact, only those over 5??

And do we have any clear evidence that omicron is so front-loaded that, even though it is much more infectious than delta, people who have had omicron stop being infectious by day 7?

It's interesting for people who are clinically vulnerable, or who might be coming into contact with other people who are vulnerable.

I note that the advice is also that people who have been positive are careful about their contacts with vulnerable people immediately after day 7, even with negative LFTs, so presumably there is a possibility of transmission being considered there?

@herecomesthsun

Every virus becomes less contagious over time - this will not change for variants of Covid. It is very likely given the possible shorter time from exposure to infection for Omicron, and the relative high levels of protection from vaccination that the majority of people will clear the infection quickly. It is a pretty good indicator that is a lateral flow is registering clear, then your ability to pass on the virus is also likely to be very low. (Obviously on a population level, a few people might slip though that safety net, but as a percentage of the whole, it is likely to not have any significant effect.)

The biggest risk to CEV is from people at the start of their infections - hence why the use of masks, ventilation and social distancing is important.

Every virus becomes less contagious over time

This is not true.

[quote MrsFrisbyMouse]@herecomesthsun

Every virus becomes less contagious over time - this will not change for variants of Covid. It is very likely given the possible shorter time from exposure to infection for Omicron, and the relative high levels of protection from vaccination that the majority of people will clear the infection quickly. It is a pretty good indicator that is a lateral flow is registering clear, then your ability to pass on the virus is also likely to be very low. (Obviously on a population level, a few people might slip though that safety net, but as a percentage of the whole, it is likely to not have any significant effect.)

The biggest risk to CEV is from people at the start of their infections - hence why the use of masks, ventilation and social distancing is important.[/quote]
Since the Government advice implies that there is a level of ongoing risk of transmission after day 7, it would be good to have more information on the scientific evidence there.

@Cornettoninja. I don't mean in the evolution of the virus. I mean once you are actively ill with it and your immune system has set to work.

@herecomesthsun

Here is one source talking about C19 - Yes you are right the data doesn't exist for definite- but there is no reason the think this variant would act in a wildly different way.

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210825113649.htm

@herecomesthsun. And the reason government advice is implies there may still be a risk is because there is a risk. When you are looking at big numbers across a population level, there are always going to be outliers. (People who sit just outside the main distribution) But they are a very small group. That is why they have added the lateral flow test in as a separate check measure.

I note that instances of in-hospital transmission are thought to have doubled in the past 2 weeks, even as the number of people admitted with covid has fallen. I think this will be a significant issue.

@MrsFrisbyMouse that's interesting if the need for -ve LFTs is put there to pick up outliers.

And this was the data from April 2020. The reason they didn't make isolation 7 days then was because we didn't yet know the effects of the vaccination programme. And also they had a number of different measure they had to choose from and play off against each other - to they chose to keep the 10 days - but to loosen other measure (like social distancing requirements/mask wearing etc)

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-duration-of-infectiousness-following-symptoms-onset-in-covid-19-13-april-2020/nervtag-duration-of-infectiousness-following-symptoms-onset-in-covid-19-13-april-2020#fnref:6

@herecomesthsun.

Why is that interesting? Genuinely interested. It just seems like a sensible precaution to take?

Can’t find anything about under 5’s.

It’s because otherwise everyone will be home isolating and essential services will struggle to run

Fair enough @MrsFrisbyMouse - apologies

@OriginalM where did you get the under 5s thing from?

If they do that its going to spread like wildfire through nurseries