Page 2 | 5000 deaths a day or just incorrect assumptions in modelling

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 17/12/2021 18:30

@2389Champ

Have you seen the 38% rise in hospitalisations in London?

Pootle40 · 17/12/2021 18:31

@Garysmum

Our favourite team at Imperial college have predicted this wave will lead to 5000 deaths a day if we carry on the status quo without further restrictions. I would imagine that means 5000 deaths a day without lockdown. Best case scenario shows 3000 deaths a day if we continue as is.

Neil Ferguson also believes that Omicron is as serious as Delta - ie not a milder disease.

Are these numbers way off base - is the modelling based on incorrect or too wide parameters?

Personally when deaths hit over 1000 a day from Covid (apparently the peak was 1800 but I had given up with news by that point) I found it deeply unsettling.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I would appreciate someone who understands statistics to explain some of this.

With or of?

the80sweregreat · 17/12/2021 18:35

Our Omicronin the UK does seem worse than anywhere else, or is it the scientists modeling it differently?
What is going on ?

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 17/12/2021 18:39

@Prescottdanni123

At it's worst, we were not reaching 2000 deaths a day before the vaccine was in use. Now many people are triple vaxxed, there is evidence to suggest that this variant is milder and there is going to be 5000 deaths a day

I think something has gone wrong with that model somewhere along the line.

How many people caught Alpha last January when we were unvaccinated, but went from Tier 3 to Tier 4 to lockdown ?

And how many will catch the several times more transmissible with some immune escape Omicron now with millions still inadequately vaccinated, WFH and the mask mandate on public transport and shops and next to useless covid passes?

If a lot more people catch it - and next weeks numbers are expected to continue to break records - then a lot more people going to hospital with it seems feasible to me.

Reallybadidea · 17/12/2021 18:42

@Spanielsarepainless

All their modelling has been overegged. They don't take into account any change in the situation, like vaccines ameliorating the severity of Covid. I'm a scientist and ashamed at the misuse of statistics.

The report is literally assessing the extent to which vaccines ameliorate the severity.

5,000 deaths is a worst case scenario and they explicitly state that the data on hospitalisations is very limited.

jgw1 · 17/12/2021 18:50

@Tabbacus

Why is our omicron special and different to that elsewhere?

Because we have British omicron not foreign omicron and so ours is better.

Crazykatie · 17/12/2021 18:57

The Omicron infection is said to double each day, that may well be correct and in a couple of months the majority of the population will have been exposed.
In the UK we have a high rate or resistance due to vaccination or previous infection so the vast majority will have mild or no symptoms. Death rate is not going to follow that trend, however if the first strain of Covid had spread as fast as Omicron with no resistance or vaccination we would have been in serious trouble.

LostForIdeas · 17/12/2021 19:01

@MaxNormal

Here is the recent South African data. It suggests otherwise.

There is a lot of talk about the fact it’s possible the U.K. ovulation will not react the same way to omicron than in SA.

The reason for that is that the immunity is mainly built through vaccines whereas in SA, it has been built through (the so called) natural immunity.

At the moment, we don’t have any numbers to confirm how bad omicron is going to be. We only know it’s more contagious.
I’ve actually come across quite a few researchers saying that it will probably be as deadly as delta. That’s what prompted me to get the booster.

We need a few more weeks before we know how it will look like for the U.K., depending on vaccine, booster or no booster and natural immunity.

LostForIdeas · 17/12/2021 19:05

In the UK we have a high rate or resistance due to vaccination or previous infection so the vast majority will have mild or no symptoms.

That is not the case.
We know that two doses of AZ means ZERO vaccine efficiency (vaccine efficiency being presenting with symptoms). Pfizer is a bit higher.
That’s why BJ has put such a huge emphasis in the booster. Adding the booster to either AZ or Pfizer is putting vaccine efficiency back into the 70%.
What we don’t know is how much protection vaccines give to hospitalisations and deaths.
Same with ‘natural immunity’ that is supposed to wane after 6 months.

So basically, maybe we are still well protected against deaths and severe illness. Maybe we are not. We don’t know.
I think it’s dangerous to say it’s a mild illness and well have no issue at all.

doublemonkey · 17/12/2021 19:06

Aside from the fact that Neil Ferguson is disgraced and we should never have to hear from him again - his modelling has been shown time and again to be extremely inaccurate.

PlanetNormal · 17/12/2021 19:08

Ferguson & Imperial’s modelling has been spectacularly pessimistic and hopelessly wrong since the start of the pandemic. They appear completely incapable of learning from their previous mistakes so I don’t know why anyone in the media still takes them remotely seriously. Maybe it’s because their hysterical doom-mongering makes scary headlines which generate lots of clicks.

Just a thought…

puppeteer · 17/12/2021 19:16

Most likely reason for our Omnicron being worse than SA’s is that the govt is determined to worry us all to death about it. In some cases, quite literally.

People are stressed because the govt keeps messing up Christmas plans, telling us to test, to isolate, then not isolate, to party, but not too much, and to prioritise essential parties over frivolous ones. And they before we’ve even gotten on to what might happen to schools, nightclubs, jobs and furlough.

With all that stress, it’s no surprise if immune systems take a hit!

doublemonkey · 17/12/2021 19:19

@PlanetNormal

Ferguson & Imperial’s modelling has been spectacularly pessimistic and hopelessly wrong since the start of the pandemic. They appear completely incapable of learning from their previous mistakes so I don’t know why anyone in the media still takes them remotely seriously. Maybe it’s because their hysterical doom-mongering makes scary headlines which generate lots of clicks.

Just a thought…

Someone should take a look at their corporate sponsers.

2389Champ · 17/12/2021 19:23

[quote IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas]@2389Champ

Have you seen the 38% rise in hospitalisations in London? [/quote]
I hadn’t. But it’s worth bearing in mind that if you test positive whilst already in hospital, it’s reported as an admission. Hospitals always see an increase in patients with many morbidities at this time of year and as Omicron is highly contagious and everyone admitted is routinely tested, this is unsurprising.

www.cebm.net/covid-19/are-covid-19-patients-in-hospital-or-admitted-to-hospital/

MummyPop00 · 17/12/2021 19:31

38% rise in hospitalisations in London?

Sure, but perspective:

5000 deaths a day or just incorrect assumptions in modelling

Rocket1982 · 17/12/2021 19:38

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas The current figures for Poland etc are per week I think whereas the 75 prediction is per day. Not that I think it is accurate though!

munchbunch12 · 17/12/2021 19:38

@puppeteer

Most likely reason for our Omnicron being worse than SA’s is that the govt is determined to worry us all to death about it. In some cases, quite literally.

People are stressed because the govt keeps messing up Christmas plans, telling us to test, to isolate, then not isolate, to party, but not too much, and to prioritise essential parties over frivolous ones. And they before we’ve even gotten on to what might happen to schools, nightclubs, jobs and furlough.

With all that stress, it’s no surprise if immune systems take a hit!

^^^ This!

Fluffycloudland77 · 17/12/2021 19:43

@Franklin12

Ferguson - the guy who was caught visiting his mistress during lockdown and who claimed as he had had covid before it was OK?

That Ferguson........

The thing is that scientists want to be doom and gloom because we will all breathe a sigh of relief if it’s not as bad. They cannot say nothing to see here because if it is they will be slaughtered so they spread the high figures to cover themselves

Yeah that’s the fella. Seems legit 😂

Wasn’t she married too?

Exhausteddog · 17/12/2021 19:43

@jgw1

Tabbacus

Why is our omicron special and different to that elsewhere?

Because we have British omicron not foreign omicron and so ours is better.

Its probably "world-beating"
because obviously its good to make this sort of thing into a competition

jgw1 · 17/12/2021 19:48

[quote Exhausteddog]@jgw1

Tabbacus

Why is our omicron special and different to that elsewhere?

Because we have British omicron not foreign omicron and so ours is better.

Its probably "world-beating"
because obviously its good to make this sort of thing into a competition[/quote]
Certainly is world beating. We have world beating omicron and if you rearrange it we have world beating moronic Prime Minister too.

ChequerBoard · 17/12/2021 19:50

This is a better picture of current hospitalisation figures in London.

We are back up at around 1000 patients in hospital with Covid as their primary diagnosis plus around another 300 who have contracted Covid whilst in hospital.

NearlyAlwaysInsane · 17/12/2021 19:53

@MaxNormal

Here is the recent South African data. It suggests otherwise.

Interesting data and Twitter thread, thank you.

doublemonkey · 17/12/2021 20:13

@MaxNormal

Here is the recent South African data. It suggests otherwise.

Excellent Twitter feed - thanks.

Amazing to read some good news!

Wishfulthinking1977 · 17/12/2021 23:17

I have been curious about his modelling since the beginning, so spoke to db who is a scientist who specialises in data analysis. He told me that the program that Ferguson uses is very dated, very flawed and most companies got rid of it many years ago! He also said that data analysis is very complicated and it's very dependent on the data you put in, the outcome you are looking for and who is interpreting it. Basically his modelling is dated, he is putting in a series of numbers based on a worse case scenario saying that a huge number who get the new variant will need hospital treatment and the percentage of those dieing due to the numbers needing hospital treatment will be higher. Its really hard to explain, it's wrong and the fact the government and certain advisors are even entertaining it is appalling! It's cruel and unfair that they put these statements out to the general public who most have no understanding (like me!) of how they work! Xx

LowPowerMode · 17/12/2021 23:21

It's a huge shame that they throw around numbers like this, scaremongering and oh so hypocritical.