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If we have a lockdown this winter, what will the end point be?

25 replies

BarmyBrunhilde · 15/12/2021 15:18

I have assiduously followed all previously lockdown rules, despite being young and healthy. I didn't see my parents last Xmas including my father who has Parkinson's and cancer, partly to protect them, but also for the sake of society.

The reason I (and everyone else who complied with lockdown) followed the rules as I saw it, was because once the vaccine system was properly rolled out, we would achieve herd immunity. The immense sacrifice of not being able to hug our loved ones, say goodbye to dying relatives, see nephews/nieces/grandchildren, make new relationships, have children of our own was all made just about bearable in the knowledge that once the vaccine was rolled out we could go back to some kind of normalcy.

Now the vast majority of the population is double jabbed, with the vulnerable all being boosted. I've happily had each and every jab, worn masks in indoor spaces etc. But now there's suggestions from some quarters that we may need another lockdown, either imminently or in January. And my question is - if most of the population is triple jabbed how long will we have to have lockdowns for?

It's been 2 years now, and it isn't it long past time that we need to start serious impact assessment of lockdowns vs Covid? Say we lockdown for a month in January... then we open up and the virus rips through again? Until we vaccinate the developing world, more variants will develop. If there's another variant next winter, will that be another lockdown? Unless politicians start giving some kind of medium to long term strategy, I can't see people complying - we're human beings and we need social contact, you can't just switch us on and off without a serious discussion and plan.

OP posts:
DynamiteFilledRadish · 15/12/2021 15:20

It isn't a particularly cheery viewpoint and I apologise for that but I am so close to the end of my rope so can't summon positivity.

I don't think we will ever get out of this now. I think people have been so brainwashed into fear, become so happy to accept their lives being restricted and controlled, been convinced that they can "stay safe". I don't think normal life will ever resume.

Makes me wonder what the point is really.

WheelieBinPrincess · 15/12/2021 15:21

Until the NHS is so broken it’s sold off.

Or they pump some actual money and solutions into it.

We all suffer because it’s been fucked to the point it can’t cope with any unprecedented event, which this is.

Obviously if there’s a lockdown I have no choice but to not travel or go to the theatre or the pub or any other fucking thing we all used to enjoy, but I won’t comply with not seeing family or friends.

BarmyBrunhilde · 15/12/2021 15:25

Totally agree you on the NHS Wheelie - I'm honestly just wondering, has the government really done all they could to help with issues long term in the last 2 years? Could they not have improved benefits for training nurses, spent more on trying to expand bed capacity? I'm not a policy expert, but I feel that it's been long enough that surely more could have been done and still could be? As this is not sustainable long term.

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WheelieBinPrincess · 15/12/2021 15:27

@BarmyBrunhilde

Of course they could! But they are Tories, and don’t give a shiny shit about something that is free at source. I don’t understand why we had all those Nightingale hospitals knocked up if they were never going to have the staff or budget to run them.

BalloonsOnFire · 15/12/2021 15:30

[quote WheelieBinPrincess]@BarmyBrunhilde

Of course they could! But they are Tories, and don’t give a shiny shit about something that is free at source. I don’t understand why we had all those Nightingale hospitals knocked up if they were never going to have the staff or budget to run them.[/quote]
Because unfortunately I don’t think the I intention was ever to have them as fully staffed functioning hospitals as such but more containment facilities for the infected / dying

nordica · 15/12/2021 15:34

There is no specific end point, it is and has always been about making sure not too many people are ill at the same time as that would overwhelm not just hospital capacity but all other essential services too. It might be a "mild" illness for us individually but you'll definitely notice it when schools and nurseries close with not enough staff, post and parcel deliveries are late, some shops will need to close, supermarket delivery slots will be hard to get again, vets will be closed so it will be hard to get treatment for your pets, etc. etc.

I mean the vaccination has been the way out, there's no doubt about that - the second half of this year has been very normal for most of us and that's because of the vaccinations.

Guacamole001 · 15/12/2021 15:42

It would be a good strategy if those waiting for care homes were temporarily placed in the Nightingale wards if there were staff to see to it. Which I dont suppose there is.

At least it could then free up a few hospital beds for the increased admissions in London.

If the NHS was in better shape talk of lockdowns might not be happening.

Remmy123 · 15/12/2021 15:44

At this rate there will be continuous lockdowns.

I thought the vaccinations wouid be the way out

BarmyBrunhilde · 15/12/2021 15:50

@Remmy123

At this rate there will be continuous lockdowns.

I thought the vaccinations wouid be the way out

But I think at some point (one we're inching towards) we have to start weighing up the costs of lockdown vs the alternative (which is horrendously difficult I know). How many years until we start saying no more? 3/5/10??
OP posts:
vera99 · 15/12/2021 15:51

Johnson is our 'leader' I am filled with loathing and despair. As Kier Starmer said the worse possible leader at the worst possible time. I hope he rots in hell.Sorry I can't be more positive than that.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 15/12/2021 15:53

Until the NHS is so broken it’s sold off

Right idea, IMO, but wrong tense ... the NHS is probably already beyond repair, but it's just a question of when Boris considers the time right to sell it and cash in along with the many cronies

As I've said so often, drive the popuulation demented enough and they'll accept almost anything to get out of it

otterlybonkers · 15/12/2021 16:08

[quote WheelieBinPrincess]@BarmyBrunhilde

Of course they could! But they are Tories, and don’t give a shiny shit about something that is free at source. I don’t understand why we had all those Nightingale hospitals knocked up if they were never going to have the staff or budget to run them.[/quote]
i think that was a political popularity move, obviously. And these turds are voted in perpetually.

TheKeatingFive · 15/12/2021 16:16

Good question OP.

However worth factoring in that for many people it's already 'over' in one sense, in that they won't be complying with future restrictions.

We need to face up to the fact that this is a new era with regards to healthcare. We can't resource what's required as it stands and therefore the model needs to change. That's starting to sink in, but it's a slow process.

UnsolicitedDickPic · 15/12/2021 16:18

@WheelieBinPrincess I agree with this. I'm double jabbed and boosted, have complied with all other restrictions and if they shut down theatres, restaurants etc I will obviously be unable to attend. But I won't not see my family again.

fedup078 · 15/12/2021 16:20

@BarmyBrunhilde well said OP

Onegingerhead · 15/12/2021 16:21

Tbh, unless the omicron is indeed reasonably mild and all the further variants will be milder and milder I don’t see any solution unless NHS is reorganised so it can cope.
Or, sterilising vaccine. Which I personally doubt

BarmyBrunhilde · 15/12/2021 17:18

@Onegingerhead

Tbh, unless the omicron is indeed reasonably mild and all the further variants will be milder and milder I don’t see any solution unless NHS is reorganised so it can cope. Or, sterilising vaccine. Which I personally doubt
That's the question - if reorganising the NHS is what's needed then why isn't it happening now? And why are more lockdowns being touted (behind closed doors at No 10 according to many broadsheet journalists)?
OP posts:
IcedPurple · 15/12/2021 17:26

But I think at some point (one we're inching towards) we have to start weighing up the costs of lockdown vs the alternative (which is horrendously difficult I know). How many years until we start saying no more? 3/5/10??

I've noticed a significant shift in mood over the past few weeks. Both in 'real life' and on forums like this. Even people who were all about 'staying safe' and did what they were told without question, are now starting to ask where all this is going and where/how it will end. Everyone who wants to be vaccinated has already had at least 2 doses. There will always be 'new variants'. Lockdowns only kick the can down the road and cause enormous damage, not just economic.

What is the end game? It can't be rolling restrictions, with nobody able to make plans and businesses only being able to trade for 9 months of the year. But what?

milly74 · 15/12/2021 17:30

Never as they know with a bit of scaremongering they can lockdown whenever they like
we will not comply

Guacamole001 · 15/12/2021 17:34

Investing in NHS recruitment from overseas and opening up more hospitals but that is probably too left wing for Conservatives. This also takes time but surely cheaper than stitching up the economy over and over....

thebellagio · 15/12/2021 17:41

This is what gets me. We know the NHS can’t cope. We’ve known that for years. But I can’t see what they are doing to improve the NHS long term.

All we’ve heard over the last year is “you can’t magic up doctors and nurses, it takes time to train them…” which is true.

But we are now 2 years in. It takes 3 years to train as a nurse. So why the fuck hasn’t there been a huge effort to boost nursing and doctor students to get them on the path to becoming qualified? Because next year or the year after, the argument of “well it takes time to train medical staff, they can’t just magic out of thin air…” doesn’t really wash does it?

Hairwizard · 15/12/2021 17:45

Why the fuck should we?
Enough is enough.
They dont give a shit.
Time businesses ignored the scaremongering and carried on as usual.

BarmyBrunhilde · 15/12/2021 17:53

Absolutely Bellagio - I'm totally bemused as to why lockdown is being seen as something that can be turned on and like a tap. The government should have been straining every sinew to avoid long term lockdown and all of its devastating effects - yet it seems to always be there as a handy backup for them, the catastrophic human cost be damned!

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BluebellsGreenbells · 15/12/2021 17:54

The NHS is over whelmed and it’s a huge burden in those working 12 hour shifts for no additional money when they can get a work from home job or similar paid work.

DD applied to university for nursing and didn’t get a place to clearly there are plenty of willing nurses but not enough spaces for them.

But one the pandemic is over they’ll be out of jobs - where’s the long term planning?

SpringRainbow · 15/12/2021 18:16

I have been wondering this for a while.

Long term even if they want rolling lockdowns and/ or restrictions the results will lessen because people will stop fully complying.

Unless there is something in it for them (for example vaccines will allow people to continue leisure activities so I am not surprised about queues at vaccination centres) then they will just stop listening and continue the best they can.

There has to be an end game/ long term plan. You can only rely on fear/ goodwill for so long.

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