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Covid

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Why would the SA doctor say the omicron is mild, if it isn’t?

96 replies

Pipecleaners · 15/12/2021 08:35

Just that really…

Why would she tell the world’s media that it’s mild if she was exaggerating or whatever else?
She’s also said Boris Johnson’s response verges on ‘hysteria’ and calls for the UK to stay calm.

OP posts:
chesirecat99 · 15/12/2021 14:31

The bronchus aren't in the nose, @Delatron. They are the large airways that lead from the trachea (windpipe) into the lungs. I think Kokeshi123 misread the linked paper, unless she has another source.

Starcaller · 15/12/2021 14:34

Surely the problem is the transmissibility rather than how severe it is anyway? Even if it is milder, if it's incredibly transmissible then a small percent of a big number is still a big number in terms of flooding the NHS.

I don't think anyone has said that Omicron itself is necessarily severe, just that it's spreading incredibly fast and that means even if the hospitalisation rate is much less than Delta, if it's present in such a large number of the population at the one time, it'll still cause massive issues for our healthcare system. It's just basic common sense: if you have way more people with the virus at the same time, then even if it is milder, a reasonable number of those people will still require hospital treatment. And as I said above, a small percent of a large number is a large number when it comes to the NHS capabilities.

Delatron · 15/12/2021 14:37

Ah ok @chesirecat99

I’ll carry on with my nose spray in case it’s doing anything. I’m sure it’s my double vaccinated state that is helping the most clearly though.

Chachasha · 15/12/2021 14:40

She isn't a researcher so she's talking about anecdotal data in a limited context. We already know most people don't become severely ill with Covid so the fact she hasn't personally seen it (especially in an area with a young population) says nothing about what it would be like in different population ages and larger numbers of people. I think it's incredibly complacent and naive for a medic to extrapolate from anecdotal data as she's doing.

She also mentions seeing a child and being unsure if she should admit him due to high pulse rate. She then mentions seeing him again two days later and finding he was fine. Why wasn't she seeing him half a day/a day if she was in two minds about admitting him? That also seems haphazard and complacent.

So her experience might be representative or it might not but she's extrapolating as if it definitely was and pretending she has the expertise to critique public health policy. I'm not impressed with that at all.

marti76 · 15/12/2021 14:52

I'm more interested to know why African countries in general have not been impacted by covid like others.

I suppose having been through Ebola covid is seen as trivial to them plus could it be the ivermectin that they use to treat lots of diseases there has helped and Trump wasn't as crazy as people made out?

Either way they are coping with a global pandemic a lot better than many western countries.

chesirecat99 · 15/12/2021 15:00

Definitely keep up the nasal spray, @Delatron. The nasal ACE-2 receptors are a point of entry for the virus so anything that might block entry is worth a go!

Staffy1 · 15/12/2021 15:00

She is not just a GP, she’s also the chairperson of the South African Medical Association.

chesirecat99 · 15/12/2021 15:05

Genetics is one possible factor, @marti76.

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-11-05-researchers-uncover-gene-doubles-risk-death-covid-19

Other possible reasons include the weather affecting how long the virus can survive outside the body and how much time people spend indoors compared to outside (both reducing transmission), lower average age. Also, there may be under reporting in some nations where there are lower levels of testing (not SA obviously).

MimiDaisy11 · 15/12/2021 15:09

@flashbac

Because you need more evidence than the say so of one person.
This!
ivykaty44 · 15/12/2021 15:11

the average age of the people getting the virus on SA has been much younger

its 27.6

compare that with the uk average age

of 40.5

its not the same age and therefore will be different

ivykaty44 · 15/12/2021 15:14

go further with that

the uk population over 65 is 18%, whereas the population of 65 in SA is 5%

remember this isn't about saving peoples lives, the English government want to be seen to not let the NHS fail, its all about not overburdening the NHS which they have failed for 10 years and was stripped last year

ivykaty44 · 15/12/2021 15:15

@marti76 they have a much younger population

Chachasha · 15/12/2021 15:23

00Staffy1

Even worse!

AlecTrevelyan006 · 15/12/2021 15:32

@marti76

I'm more interested to know why African countries in general have not been impacted by covid like others.

I suppose having been through Ebola covid is seen as trivial to them plus could it be the ivermectin that they use to treat lots of diseases there has helped and Trump wasn't as crazy as people made out?

Either way they are coping with a global pandemic a lot better than many western countries.

I correspond with a chap in Kenya. They have Covid there but he says no one cares about it at all - they simply call it the ‘fat old white man disease’ apparently
chesirecat99 · 15/12/2021 15:34

@Staffy1

She is not just a GP, she’s also the chairperson of the South African Medical Association.
The South African Medical Association is like a medical trade union. It might qualify her as an expert in employment issues but not in epidemiology or virology.

Besides which, she is not speaking to the press on behalf of the South African Medical Association, she is speaking as an individual.

Interestingly, if you look at what she writes in their newsletter as their chair, she says something very different. In the 10 December newsletter, she says that it is too early to understand the significance of the mutations in omicron or make predictions. Which is exactly what people are criticising her for doing here. She clearly understands as you would bloody well hope from a doctor that we don't have enough data to be drawing conclusions or making predictions yet here she is spouting irresponsible nonsense about omicron being mild to the UK media and saying we are overreacting while she is telling her colleagues to get vaccinated and being far more cautious about what she says.

The detection of the new Omicron variant again emphasizes the urgency to get vaccinated. The more people we have vaccinated, the less chance the virus has of mutating. Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces. We can make some predictions about the impact of mutations in this variant, but the full significance remains uncertain. We will keep an eye on this during the next few weeks and months

www.samedical.org/cmsuploader/

On 15 December, she again urges members to get their booster vaccinations in her address. There's nothing else about omicron.

Staffy1 · 15/12/2021 15:47

@marti76

I'm more interested to know why African countries in general have not been impacted by covid like others.

I suppose having been through Ebola covid is seen as trivial to them plus could it be the ivermectin that they use to treat lots of diseases there has helped and Trump wasn't as crazy as people made out?

Either way they are coping with a global pandemic a lot better than many western countries.

It is affecting them and I don’t think Ebola is found throughout Africa, only in a couple of places.
Yddraigoldragon · 15/12/2021 15:50

I don't think anyone has said that Omicron itself is necessarily severe, just that it's spreading incredibly fast and that means even if the hospitalisation rate is much less than Delta, if it's present in such a large number of the population at the one time, it'll still cause massive issues for our healthcare system. It's just basic common sense: if you have way more people with the virus at the same time, then even if it is milder, a reasonable number of those people will still require hospital treatment. And as I said above, a small percent of a large number is a large number when it comes to the NHS capabilities.

This..

And if medical staff go down with this at the same rate, who is going to be able to look after everyone else? To me that is the worry, that essential services will not function because many staff are ill or isolated.

marti76 · 15/12/2021 16:39

@Staffy1 except it isn't. Most of Africa doesn't have good enough medical care for day to day things so if covid hit there it would be a disaster on a terrible scale, look at India and what supposedly happened there for example. If we are not equipped to handle covid you can not expect poor countries with no resources to cope yet we've heard nothing about what's happening there which is very strange.

FreeBritnee · 15/12/2021 16:45

My instinct is it’s it’s transmissibility that’s got everyone panicked. It doesn’t matter if it’s mild for most. If it’s not mild for some that’s going to be enough to have people dying in the streets.

Staffy1 · 15/12/2021 16:50

[quote marti76]@Staffy1 except it isn't. Most of Africa doesn't have good enough medical care for day to day things so if covid hit there it would be a disaster on a terrible scale, look at India and what supposedly happened there for example. If we are not equipped to handle covid you can not expect poor countries with no resources to cope yet we've heard nothing about what's happening there which is very strange. [/quote]
According to stats it is. Just Google SA covid stats and deaths. Also a lot of them might not be recorded as well as here.

howdiditcometothis666 · 15/12/2021 17:17

This chap is the vaccine expert in SA and I think he is saying natural immunity/T cells response in SA maybe helping:

"While Madhi said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalisations and severe illness."
What is quite fascinating is that taking the rate of infection per 100,000 and comparing that to the hospitalisation rate as well as the death rate, the hospitalisation rate is much more muted compared with what was the equivalent case rate in the first three waves that transpired.

“So it tells us something is at play when the high force of infections with Omicron is not materialising in terms of severe disease and deaths in large numbers.”

Citing evidence of Omicron’s ability to evade antibody protection he suggested data was “congregating” that immunity from T cells might be driving protection against more severe disease."

Also in the article the 2nd largest health insurer is also reporting lower cases of severe illness

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/south-africa-previous-infections-may-explain-omicron-hospitalisation-rate

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