8th Dec 6pm press conference

[PurpleDaisies]

Whitty
Vallance
Johnson

I wonder what they’ll say.

[TheKeatingFive]

I guess the question I am asking is 'if we (UK society) were happy enough with x domestic violence cases pre-covid, sufficiently happy to have cut the refuge support and services available so that more people were being harmed in an average year, why are we more concerned about y additional domestic violence cases caused/exacerbated by lockdown?'

It's the degree to which these problems have been exacerbated by covid, plus the many new issues we are creating by cutting the young and vulnerable off from society for extended periods of time.

There has been no analysis of the overarching and long term costs of lockdown and I do not think we can justify continuing use of it until we understand the costs.

[Puzzledandpissedoff]

When the penny finally drops for people about what (the accumulated debt) means for public services (and yes, public sector jobs), all hell is going to break loose

I agree, Keating
Admittedly it's a crisis for another day rather than the one we're facing now, but I'm only waiting for the narrative to swing to "we should never have allowed the lockdown damage in the first place"

[herecomesthsun]

Well, i would agree that logical argument is better than saying we should never have another lockdown because we are too caring etc.

As regards measures, we have had lockdowns implemented in England very late in the day and then for months at a time.

Vallance went on record saying we need to in sharp and early and there is certainly a school of thought that this would be more effective.

Of course, it is impossible to know for sure what would have happened if a different course of action had been followed.

But if we had got away with a much earlier and shorter lockdown, say, in March/April 2021, there would have been huge social and economic benefits.

There were estimates that lockdown a week earlier would have considerably improved the immediate outcome.

I agree that we should learn from our experiences.

[MarshaBradyo]

Why did the North have such a tough time with long restrictions when they locked down earlier on their curve?

[herecomesthsun]

I don't know, why do you think?

[MarshaBradyo]

Actually we should say no to a lockdown because we as a society care about another vulnerable group - children.

Not everyone will feel like that as maybe personal impact but yes on the whole we should swing the priority.

[churchofthepoisonmind]

Who pays for it all @herecomesthsun ?

[MarshaBradyo]

@herecomesthsun

I don't know, why do you think?

That you are not thinking it through enough.

[herecomesthsun]

And I think having a sensible conversation about the problem at hand is better than precluding a course of action on the basis of one or a small number of emotive cases related to the complex issues.

[herecomesthsun]

@churchofthepoisonmind

Who pays for it all *@herecomesthsun* ?

Who is paying for Brexit & how are they managing that?

[MarshaBradyo]

Not small. Problematic for many.

I think the emotive idea of keeping ‘safe’ has become all encompassing for many.

It means they ignore the damage.

[herecomesthsun]

@MarshaBradyo If you want to make a particular point about the situation in the North, could you explain your argument please?

[DottyHarmer]

I agree one million per cent with @Waxonwaxoff0 that every single person has a personal agenda. Right back at the beginning of all this it drove me mad and I said every poster should declare their personal circumstances, eg Secure job, large property, large garden, no dcs in important years, Happy to Lockdown!!

No blaming the govt - you can blame them for a whole load of things, but covid? Honestly? Ironically the most anti-govt posters are also the most insular, clearly never spending a second looking at other countries’ restrictions or cases. We may be an island, but covid just doesn’t care. It is not sentient, and really doesn’t follow govt policy of whichever country it lands up in.

[Octavia174]

@churchofthepoisonmind

anyone who does not support wholesale investment in the services we need can stop pretending they care
*@rrhuth* - here is an economics lesson for you. The current UK gross debt stands at 106 per cent of gross GDP (annual government revenues, essentially). And yes, this is as bad as it sounds. To give some context, in 2009, in the wake of the 2008 bank bailout, this figure was 63 per cent.
This debt is at this level because of lockdowns. It will increase more with further lockdowns. It will also increase more as more small businesses go to the wall due to WFH policies etc.
Who pays for all this? The fucking money fairies?

Without LDs the economy would have still tanked, who goes to the shops or work when there is a virus around that kills off 100s of 1000s of people, regardless of their age?
Instead of Furlough, we would have paid out in mass unemployment, banking collapses & supporting strategic industries.

The BOE has bought almost 900 billion of Bonds/Gilts, these are long term 33 to 55 years.
Other people have bought these too, the whole world owes money, even China, around 67% of GDP - $7 trillion.

Its a merry go round, so if we all owe money, who do we all owe it too?

I wouldn't worry about it, so long as there is still confidence in the UK!

[DottyHarmer]

And blaming the govt, I meant. Autocorrect going barmy these days.

[churchofthepoisonmind]

I am asking who pays for covid measures @herecomesthsun
You have no answer all you can do is bleat on and on about more and more measures.
Somebody has to pay for these things.
Brexit is a drop in the ocean compared to covid, I promise you.
The government debt is scarily high and will get worse as more businesses fold and tax receipts fall.
I ask again - who pays for these measures you keep calling for? And how, in turn, will we keep funding the NHS if we are skint?
The irony of your posts is that the very things you are calling for will make things far worse for the elderly and vulnerable in the long term. Far worse.

[VikingOnTheFridge]

@TheVampiresWife

Could say the same about people suddenly caring about CEV people to be fair

This.

True.

Generally speaking, too many people either can't or find it convenient not to understand that there is no option open to us that protects 'the vulnerable'. Rather, it's about balancing up competing benefits and harms. There's nothing intrinsically more or less moral about feeling we should prioritise the interests of ECV people over abused children, or vice versa. Most people will take a view based on their own selfish interests or, if personally not vulnerable, their general preferences and beliefs.

There are of course a few sociopaths etc, but generally speaking that's the framework in which most people make their decision. There's not a great deal of benefit comes from intellectualising that, and it's not much of a distraction technique at this point either.

[herecomesthsun]

@churchofthepoisonmind
It really is rude to tell people that they "bleat". And cliched. Cliched and rude.

I am arguing for us to keep an open mind with respect to measures for the future, which we might need. I am not saying we need more restrictions right now.

Apparently the cost of Brexit is likely to be higher than the cost of covid, so it has repeatedly been estimated.

cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICATIONS/abstract.asp?index=7528

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020

[toomuchlaundry]

So did people think of the vulnerable families when voting for Brexit?

[herecomesthsun]

Well I was thinking of a number of issues, when I voted against Brexit.

[VikingOnTheFridge]

I thought about vulnerable families when I chose not to vote Brexit, if that helps.

[MarshaBradyo]

Most people will take a view based on their own selfish interests or, if personally not vulnerable, their general preferences and beliefs.

Yes for some it will be personal but also if based on beliefs (not sure what best word is) then it’s a changing situation.

What was felt to be right may no longer have as much support. Because the situation has changed and because harm is accumulative.

In short public support for the same again drops - MPs are under more pressure and the conversation shifts. There’s a thread on here which asks 1 to 5 what people would want, I and bet many others have changed views down the numbers, different to start.

[churchofthepoisonmind]

My rudeness is born of frustration @herecomesthsun
I run a small business and know several other owners via networking events etc.
In the past 6 months I have seen 2 go bust (both 7 figure businesses employing several people, all on good wages paying in high tax rates).
I know several others on the brink. It's the uncertainty that is killing them.
I don't think people realise the tsunami that is coming down the road financially. And, of course, all this will hit public services. Look at austerity post 2008. Debt is almost double what it was then.
The same people calling for tighter restrictions to protect the elderly will be asking why there is no money to look after the elderly and vulnerable in a few years.

[VikingOnTheFridge]

@MarshaBradyo

Most people will take a view based on their own selfish interests or, if personally not vulnerable, their general preferences and beliefs.

Yes for some it will be personal but also if based on beliefs (not sure what best word is) then it’s a changing situation.

What was felt to be right may no longer have as much support. Because the situation has changed and because harm is accumulative.

In short public support for the same again drops - MPs are under more pressure and the conversation shifts. There’s a thread on here which asks 1 to 5 what people would want, I and bet many others have changed views down the numbers, different to start.

Yes, that's a good point. The goalposts also shift. Specifically on here, I think we see a lot of parents who have been willing to accept the interests of children as a cohort (note these three words) being lowered in the priority order at times, in the belief that it was temporary and in the wider interests of society, who now don't feel like this anymore. Some of that is to do with other factors like furlough availability, but I think there's also change of beliefs too.

[herecomesthsun]

Good luck with the small business @churchofthepoisonmind

I can see that it has been very difficult and I am not surprised in a way that this is where you are coming from.

I don't think we need more restrictions than suggested yesterday right this minute; however I think that it is not impossible that we will have so many cases and hospitalisations in late December/January that more measures come into play.

I am not saying this "should" happen because I am being "caring" but that this could be a pragmatic approach, balancing out various risks and costs, that the Government might need to put into place.