Travel changes too late to halt potential new wave - scientist

[puppeteer]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59536795

Seems a very logical perspective, and it is great to see a bit of balance, and especially to see some of the "keep calm" narrative coming through in the media.

I think this means that as it is here, I'll take hood (assuming that what is currently believed about high transmissibility is correct)

What we can do is try to avoid stoking the wave by importing lots of new cases. We might not be able to stop the wave, but - like at the start - we can try to flatten and spread it a bit.

I read a commentary this morning saying that from arrival to major wave is expected to take about 8 weeks. That will be faster and produce more cases if there are lots of new imports seeding it into communities round the country. And lots of cases will inevitably produce an increase in hospital admissions - we don't know at what rate that will be (pre-vaccination around 9%, since widespread vaccination down to about 2%). But even if it stays at 2%, that proportion of a very large number can still be very problematic. Can even be worse that a higher percentage of a lower number of cases.

@puppeteer

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59536795

Seems a very logical perspective, and it is great to see a bit of balance, and especially to see some of the "keep calm" narrative coming through in the media.

I’m not sure that article is the keep calm positive narrative you are looking for.

I’m fairly certain that what the scientist means isn’t it’s too late so there’s nothing we can do, it’s more it’s too late we need to do something else.

The article explicitly says that imported cases won't be the driver

Other commentators do not rule it out.

Its pretty normal pattern for spread that it is faster when there are multiple points from which it starts spreading