What do you think the chances of a lockdown in Scotland?

[itlod]

What does everyone think?

I know there are so many debates about the new variant and whether we should have another lockdown or not. Im not interested in starting yet another debate on what everyone thinks should be done.

I just wonder what you think the chances of another pre-Xmas lockdown actually are? Ive got a few things booked and wondering if they're likely to go ahead or not (a friends 40th, a friends wedding - both with hotels booked for overnight stays etc)

Hopefully not. I've got a holiday next week staying in a hotel to visit my great grandmother with cancer.

High, but I think it will be similar restrictions to what Ireland has just announced within the week, followed by a full lock down after Xmas. Same for Wales.

I think fairly low given we didn’t even increase restrictions for that huge peak in September. But 🤷‍♀️

There’s an emerging picture it leads to a surge in hospitalisation in young children and pregnant women. If that holds up I think there will be further measures.

I’m not sure they will go for a full lockdown straight off though.

Possibly something like this:
Primary schools and nurseries closing early for Christmas.

Large events like sports, concerts and cinema/theatre closing down again.

Smaller venues needing vaccine passports and increased social distancing.

Maybe a cap again of number of people who can meet up in a group.

Instruction to work from home if you can.

Much stricter rules on international travel.

I think there would need to be a really sudden upswing in numbers for them to go back to to tiers and no meeting in private homes again though. But if the r rate is 2 as is being reported some places I don’t think that’s impossible.

Fortunately or unfortunately, whichever way you look at it, higher than in England

@Hairyfairy01

High, but I think it will be similar restrictions to what Ireland has just announced within the week, followed by a full lock down after Xmas. Same for Wales.

Yes, this is what I think will happen too.

Instruction to work from home if you can.

That never stopped…

What would be the point of lockdowns? we have had several and none of them have made a difference....the virus comes back as soon as you open again.

I don't think hope there will be a full lockdown. I think they'll close down things like nightclubs and put daft and bizarre restrictions on hospitality like stopping alcohol being served, try and put in some sort of border to stop the pestilent English coming in and put restrictions on household numbers ( which this time round no one will follow).

Unless the BG wants to fork out for furlough SG can't afford to pay for lockdown.

Well the cases and hospitalisations are both stable / falling in Scotland so not sure why a lockdown is needed.

@ElectraBlue

What would be the point of lockdowns? we have had several and none of them have made a difference....the virus comes back as soon as you open again.

So the NHS can cope at a manageable level. Without the lockdowns the nhs would have been even more overwhelmed than they were as we would have seen scenes like in Italy of people being treated in hospital car parks. Even by stopping people doing sports, driving unnecessarily, closing nightclubs etc it reduces the impact on health services. We have to ensure that when people become unwell / injured, with or without COVID, that the nhs has the resources (and staff) to treat them. A lockdown assists with this.

No furlough no closing surely?

No chance. Sturgeon can't afford to pay furlough. And if she fucks with education for the third year in a row she will have a riot on her hands.

So hard to predict, DH showed me a graph of the exponential rise in SA at the moment and also an exponential increase in hospitalisation. It said the doubling rate was 2.5 days. I can’t work that out but if anyone is better at maths?! Bbc says 16 new cases of omicron in Scotland yesterday so what does that mean for us in a couple of weeks.

It’s just all so unknown at the moment, even in another week or two the picture should be far clearer.

I can only say this loud anonymously on the internet but a (large) part of me would love a Xmas lockdown! To not have to entertain everyone. But I know that’s pretty selfish and it would make lots of people sad.

I don't think they will bring in any restrictions. I reckon all the focus will be on vaccinating children.

Sturgeon basically guided by what she think may make Boris/Westminster/England look "bad"

At a rough guess, I'd say around 100 per cent.

@Flapjacker48

Sturgeon basically guided by what she think may make Boris/Westminster/England look "bad"

This.

@Kshhuxnxk

No furlough no closing surely?

Yep. So unless Rishi’s feeling like doing an about-turn I doubt we’ll see a lockdown here.

It would be possible to close and limit some things, expand vaccine passports etc., limit household mixing, no travel outside your local authority again, to buy time to find out more about omicron. Not sure if it would make much of a difference at this point though and hard to think there be much public appetite for “yeah the nightclubs are open but you can’t go to your mum’s house. It’s only for three weeks though, honestly, we mean it this time…”

I think posts like this are unhelpful and can cause anxiety in many. Everyone's experience of the pandemic varies, but for some it's been life changing. I think posters have to be careful not to scaremonger.

I don't think there will be another lockdown. How would all the businesses that would have to close pay their employees? What about school closures and home learning? What would be the benefit after months of kids being at school? It just isn't a viable measure to take anymore.
I think we might see reinforcement of the messages to wear masks in indoor public spaces, on public transport etc, work from home if you can, social distancing and so on.

If we keep having lockdowns despite the success of the vaccination program, how will we ever move on from the pandemic?

I say this as a CEV person whose life changed significantly due to the restrictions.

I dont think so

@GoldenOmber

Instruction to work from home if you can.

That never stopped…

Although my employer acted as if it did. They've begrudgingly let us work from home during December with the strict instruction we're back in the office in January. (This is for a job which has zero need to be there in person, other than their misguided intention to create a 'vibrant campus').

I don't think there will be a full on lockdown again and I hope schools don't close. We had a taste of online learning last week when school closed for a power outage and it brought back nightmares!

@Heruka

So hard to predict, DH showed me a graph of the exponential rise in SA at the moment and also an exponential increase in hospitalisation. It said the doubling rate was 2.5 days. I can’t work that out but if anyone is better at maths?! Bbc says 16 new cases of omicron in Scotland yesterday so what does that mean for us in a couple of weeks.

It’s just all so unknown at the moment, even in another week or two the picture should be far clearer.

I can only say this loud anonymously on the internet but a (large) part of me would love a Xmas lockdown! To not have to entertain everyone. But I know that’s pretty selfish and it would make lots of people sad.

You are comparing apples with oranges though @Heruka.

South Africa have fully vaccinated (2 doses) around 22% of their population according to the Reuters site. This site ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations put it a bit higher at around 25%. However you cut it, it's an awful lot less than Scotland which is sitting at 20% unvaccinated/ineligible, and about 72% with two or three doses.

If as the scientists are to be believed (and I see no reason why we shouldnt), then vaccinations will work to keep people out of hospital. We are in a much, much stronger position than south Africa. If omicron takes over and becomes dominant then it simply does not matter if vaccines are doing their job.

Scotland has falling hospital numbers and high vaccine/booster uptake. These are the statistics the Gov are interested in.
Why would we need a lockdown unless that changes drastically?

YY.

It seems unlikely that the new variant will follow the South African increase in cases or hospitalisations.

As well as the points @MLMshouldbeillegal has made it's probably a good thing from our point of view that cases of covid in SA were very low, so the omicron variant there had little to compete with unlike in Scotland where there's delta transmitting.

I do wonder if the Scottish government might mandate try to enforce a maximum number of people in private households---- though.

Even without an official government requirement parties, works dinners etc are being cancelled. So that might slightly reduce the number of cases.