Is reinfection actually that rare?

[forinborin]

Have been making my way through studies on the reinfection frequency (in the context of omicron), and was surprised that while the estimates vary, all of them tend to agree that it is an exceptionally rare event with previous variants.

It has not been the experience around me at all. I can think of a two (unconnected) people who I know for certain (as in, had seen their PCR test both times with my own eyes) have had covid twice, with gaps of ~9 and ~15 months. I know many people who say they had it twice - I haven't seen the proof myself, but they are not known as habitual liars so at least some of them must be telling the truth.

What's your experience? Do you know someone who had it twice?

My son (8) has had it twice. 10 months apart. Both times mildly but he was symptomatic.
I also know quite a lot of people who've had it after double vaccination. I caught it shortly after my booster (which probably hadn't had quite enough time to work).

My sister had it twice last year. 9 months between each case. First time she had predominantly respiratory symptoms and second time was more gastric symptoms and extreme lethargy. Much milder second time around.

And she is not immune compromised in anyway, in otherwise good health.

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1

Immunity is short lived with other coronavirus.

I know lots of people who’ve had it once and no one who’s had it twice.

I've had it twice. Only 4 months apart. Completely different symptoms each time. Not immuno compromised in any way. Double jabbed too. The first time nobody in my household caught it from me but the second time they did - and they didn't have any symptoms initially but went on to lose their smell which sort of shows I couldn't have just had a cold plus covid particles in the nose I guess.

[quote Lelivre]www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1[/quote]
This is about the "common cold" coronaviruses, but still interesting.

I tested positive at the beginning of November with only a sore throat and slight cough. All LFTs before and during my isolation were negative; I only ever tested positive on PCR. On Tuesday I began to feel unwell with a slight cough and cold like symptoms (not too bad) but didn’t retest as I understood the guidance to be not to test at all during the 90 day period after a positive PCR. I went to work on Wednesday but realised when I got home, I had no sense of smell or taste at all. More out of curiosity than anything, I did a LFT and it was instantly positive with a very bold line. I phoned 111 and the doctor who called back said if new covid symptoms develop, official advice is to retest regardless of the 90 day window. She also said her son had tested positive twice during 5 weeks and that his swabs had shown two different variants, indicating two different infections. I had a PCR and it came back positive yesterday. I am still positive on the many LFTs I’ve done since!

I’m was curious if anyone else had experienced anything similar. I feel much worse this time round with very typical covid symptoms (none of which I had last time) but people keep telling me the positive result is ‘old virus’. I understand this happens with PCR tests but surely not on LFT tests which detect active virus (and were all negative first time round!)

I’m very confused! I also work in a school where covid is rife so if I was going to pick it up again anywhere, I guess it would be there!

I know 3 people who’ve had it twice. None of them work in healthcare.

I personally don't know anyone who has had it twice, and I don't know anyone who is vaccinated who had more than a mild case (annoying symptoms but the kind that precovid you would take two paracetamol, suck on a strepsil and carry on

It's hard though to compare our likely experience to South Africa - we have an older population, a colder climate, better nutrition and general health, less hiv, and far higher vaccination rates.

@forinborin oh yes the link I posted, I should have made that clearer. The point I was trying to make was that with other endemic, widespread human to human coronaviruses (the cold ones) we anticipate reinfection in relatively short intervals potentially repeatedly throughout our lifetime (just a few months protection).

What your GP said is very interesting. It shows that we are still finding out about how these infections affect us.

I hope you feel much better soon.

Ah @Helby2112 (GP comments and ‘get well’)

Lelivre, thank you!

@forinborinoh yes the link I posted, I should have made that clearer. The point I was trying to make was that with other endemic, widespread human to human coronaviruses (the cold ones) we anticipate reinfection in relatively short intervals potentially repeatedly throughout our lifetime (just a few months protection).
Absolutely agree. Even more, I think one of current hypothesis of how the current diversity of "common cold" coronaviruses emerged is from the "Russian flu" pandemic in the late 19th century - thought to be a flu before, but now after some research is strongly suspected to be a coronavirus similar to ncov-19 - basically, the story repeating itself. And many viral colds we have now are all "variant" descendants from that old one. Actually, will go now and see if there are more updates, it is a fascinating topic.

Why would ONS study give an indication on this?

Since it started anyway, not sure when it did

Why wouldn’t… rather

@MarshaBradyo

Why would ONS study give an indication on this?

Since it started anyway, not sure when it did

Eh... did not quite get the question.

I was interested in the reinfection risk with the old variants (in the context of claims that reinfection risk with omicron is up to 3x higher). Because there's a difference between it increasing from 0.1% to 0.3%, or from 10% to 30%. So tried to find some stats, and was surprised how low it is in the context of my anecdotal experience.

I think it is really low in reality - otherwise it would be seen in the study

I don’t know why anecdotally people know people who have it more often

Did the people you know do PCR each time?

@MarshaBradyo

I think it is really low in reality - otherwise it would be seen in the study

I don’t know why anecdotally people know people who have it more often

Did the people you know do PCR each time?

The ONS study is just a statistical observation - they cannot control for everything that has been happening in real life - ie lockdowns, vaccinations, seasonality etc. Eg we cannot say whether a reinfection did not occur because there has been no further exposure or because the person is immune. A PP had an interesting idea to look if there are any studies that look at the reinfection rates in healthcare workers (who are almost guaranteed to be exposed). I will check if there are any.

Personally I am not so sure of how low it is if it were actually endemic, or if we were to carry on living without mitigation’s. That is to say, this wave, (not sure if it is 3rd or 4th)@ but the one since freedom day) is the first one, for the UK, to take its natural course. Previous waves were halted or controlled by lockdowns and school closures.

Healthcare environments tell us a bit more but only so much because typically they works throughout although, they are following still pandemic protocols/infection control measures.

What happens to unvaccinated children going to school without mitigation’s over time will be a bit more telling, surely?

The ONS study is just a statistical observation

Yes but you are comparing with people you know, which surely is less robust than the study.

You can look to healthcare - Are the people you know in healthcare?

I was surprised by how low the reinfection rate is officially supposed to be, because there is so much discussion about HCPs having reinfections.

At the start of the pandemic, there were first no tests and then very few tests. HCPs got exposed and were off with symptoms, often unverified.

Then there was antibody testing but at least initially this also wasn't readily available.

So there was a population of people who could have had an infection previously, either asymptomatic, or symptomatic but unverified.

I'm not sure how the studies accounted for this, that found reinfection in only a fraction of a per cent.

There is also the passage of time. Immunity acquired after infection may - probably does- wane after a time. We can't speed up the evaluation of this, we have to wait and see what happens, and who gets reinfected.

The situation in SA is of note because apparently the covid death rate in SA was almost 0.4% of the population, so far. This is so high that some scientists think almost the whole population must have been infected.

It is therefore notable that infection rates in GP are increasing at what looks like an exponential rate. If a very large part of the population have been infected previously, does this therefore mean that a relatively high number of the new infections are reinfections?

@herecomesthsun I’ve had all those same thoughts