Is reinfection actually that rare?

[forinborin]

Have been making my way through studies on the reinfection frequency (in the context of omicron), and was surprised that while the estimates vary, all of them tend to agree that it is an exceptionally rare event with previous variants.

It has not been the experience around me at all. I can think of a two (unconnected) people who I know for certain (as in, had seen their PCR test both times with my own eyes) have had covid twice, with gaps of ~9 and ~15 months. I know many people who say they had it twice - I haven't seen the proof myself, but they are not known as habitual liars so at least some of them must be telling the truth.

What's your experience? Do you know someone who had it twice?

Had it once and had lots of very close prolonged contacts since. I'm still the only person in my immediate family and friends who have had it. It's so weird.

I've had it twice and am double vaccinated

The reinfection rate in heth care workers is likely to be higher than in the general population though as they are more likely to come onto close contact with it.

Why some people catch it and some don't is a mystery. Both of my children have had it at separate times, DH and I haven't caught it off them.

I had it twice, 12 months apart. The second time was after being double vaccinated for 4 months

The comments from South Africa are that reinfection is thought to be more of an issue with omicron.

As someone commented on another thread though, if reinfection is thought to be very low, then it might still be a relatively small % of people. (Though a small % of a big number could be quite a large number)

We are still watching the longitudinal picture unfold, however.

A friend has tested positive three times, once in the UK and then twice, months apart, after moving to live in Europe.

Yes, a few people.

@fluckityfluckfluck

I've had it twice and am double vaccinated

Same, though first time I had it was before vaccines, recently had it after being double jabbed but had no symptoms, only tested because dd had it.

DH has swabbed positive no less than three times. He thinks the middle one might have been a false positive, but the other two definitely weren't.

I read somewhere (which I've never been able to find since 🙄) that it will only be counted as official, verified reinfection if they have the original sample to compare to the second one - so they can confirm it's a new infection and not just fragments of the first one or a weirdly long infection or something. Which might explain why official figures are apparently low - although seems odd to claim it's rare on that basis, rather than saying "we don't really know, but some of those reinfections might not be actual reinfections". 🤷

@herecomesthsun

The comments from South Africa are that reinfection is thought to be more of an issue with omicron.

As someone commented on another thread though, if reinfection is thought to be very low, then it might still be a relatively small % of people. (Though a small % of a big number could be quite a large number)

We are still watching the longitudinal picture unfold, however.

Yes, true, and this is exactly why I got interested in the topic. I was just trying to build a mental picture about how high the "base" rate of reinfections of old variants is is from anecdotal data around me - which is by no means perfect - and was several magnitudes off the "official" reinfection rate estimates.

Yes, I work in a school and four children have had it twice, around 9 months apart, PCR confirmed.

BBC news this evening, reinfection in South Africa is high.

@MrsSkylerWhite

BBC news this evening, reinfection in South Africa is high.

Yes, saw it. And that is with quite decent seroprevalence in the population. Unhappy news.

A good friend of mine had it July and November. Poorly both times despite being double jabbed.

I don’t know anyone who’s had it twice. I had in March 2020 before testing - it was only because I lost my smell and taste that I thought I’d had it. I was still testing positive for antibodies 18 months later and haven’t even had a cold since. Remember there are false positive PCR results so just because someone has had two positive PCRs doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve had it twice.

Having it twice & having positive pcrs twice are not the same thing

A pcr can pick up bits of virus in your nose that may not be replicating. They can be residual from an old infection, or if you're working in a viral soup in a hospital, just breathing it in. You're not infected though, in the sense that the virus is replicating in your cells and producing symptoms. Imagine how confusing it might be if you have a rhinovirus infection but are breathing in a ton or corona particles each day. You'll look like you have symptoms and a positive PCR, but you don't have COVID

Most healthcare workers are likely super immune to it. Their immune systems will have had plenty of opportunity to strengthen their innate responses.

Only the immunocompromised are likely to catch it more than once. Otherwise we'd see tons of reinfections in the elderly, who are more likely to have impaired immunity. We haven't, so that tells you how rare it is.

My friends son had it twice within 6 months but know of no others.

A girl in my daughter's class had it last Christmas and has just had it again, both times confirmed by pcr. As far as I'm aware I've only had it once but I did an antibody test which arrived 3 days after my positive pcr which showed I had antibodies and they said it was unlikely to be from an infection within the last 2 weeks, so it would appear I've had it more than once. The first infection must have been asymptomatic

@morticiamarkle

Having it twice & having positive pcrs twice are not the same thing

A pcr can pick up bits of virus in your nose that may not be replicating. They can be residual from an old infection, or if you're working in a viral soup in a hospital, just breathing it in. You're not infected though, in the sense that the virus is replicating in your cells and producing symptoms. Imagine how confusing it might be if you have a rhinovirus infection but are breathing in a ton or corona particles each day. You'll look like you have symptoms and a positive PCR, but you don't have COVID

Most healthcare workers are likely super immune to it. Their immune systems will have had plenty of opportunity to strengthen their innate responses.

Only the immunocompromised are likely to catch it more than once. Otherwise we'd see tons of reinfections in the elderly, who are more likely to have impaired immunity. We haven't, so that tells you how rare it is.

There have also been anecdotally a fair number of reinfections in HCPs (there must be a study on this) though we didn't have tests early on so the evidence isn't as clear as one would like. I don't imagine those HCPs are all immunocompromised.

Also omicron looks to be behaving a bit differently wrt reinfections, and it's new, so we haven't had the chance to analyse this yet.

@morticiamarkle

Having it twice & having positive pcrs twice are not the same thing

A pcr can pick up bits of virus in your nose that may not be replicating. They can be residual from an old infection, or if you're working in a viral soup in a hospital, just breathing it in. You're not infected though, in the sense that the virus is replicating in your cells and producing symptoms. Imagine how confusing it might be if you have a rhinovirus infection but are breathing in a ton or corona particles each day. You'll look like you have symptoms and a positive PCR, but you don't have COVID

Most healthcare workers are likely super immune to it. Their immune systems will have had plenty of opportunity to strengthen their innate responses.

Only the immunocompromised are likely to catch it more than once. Otherwise we'd see tons of reinfections in the elderly, who are more likely to have impaired immunity. We haven't, so that tells you how rare it is.

Yes, agree. But these positive pcrs in absence of actual infection must have counted towards the official reinfection figures too.

My DM has had confirmed COVID twice. Both times a hospital acquired infection. Neither having been vaccinated or previously having Covid did her any good

My friend has had it twice. The first time she didn't test positive but was confirmed to have antibodies in Summer 2020.The second time was this autumn this year when she had a positive contact PCR, the positive person being a family member. No symptoms either time. She is a nurse.

I know several people who work in healthcare & public facing hands on jobs that have had it at least twice

My son and his girlfriend both had it twice about 9 months apart. Both confirmed by PCR. the first time my son was asymptomatic but his whole Uni flat had it. The second time he had cold like symptoms.

I don't know anyone that's had it once, never mind twice.